Summary
Approximately 50 percent of those on state probation completed their community supervision in 2016.
Approximately 56 percent of those on state parole completed their community supervision in 2016.
There were 582,000 fewer people on parole and probation since the peak year of 2007.
Approximately 1 in 55 adults in the United States were under parole and probation supervision at year-end 2016.
All of the decrease in the community supervision population in 2016 was due to a decline in the probation population.
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of criminology and public affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University.
Article
What are the reasons for the decline in parole and probation populations?
There is no uniform theory or practice within parole and probation agencies in the United States. For example, what will get you sentenced back to prison in one state will have a different outcome in another.
Are some of the completions driven by policy and not rates of crime? Are decisions being made principally to reduce state fiscal burdens? If so, are there implications for public safety?
Overall Correctional Population
There were 582,000 fewer people on parole and probation since the peak year of 2007.
Parole includes those mandatorily released (can no longer be legally held) or released by a discretionary decision (parole commission decision).
Regardless as to the type of release, the vast majority were under the supervision of parole and probation agencies upon release.
Chart-Overall Parole and Probation Population
Probation
Approximately 50 percent of those on state probation completed their sentence in 2016.
Comparison Data:
There is one major and definitive Bureau of Justice Statistics study (based on large numbers of offenders) on state probation recidivism. It focused solely on felony probationers.
Within 3 years 43% of state felons on probation were rearrested for a felony. Half of the arrests were for a violent crime (murder, rape, robbery, or aggravated assault) or a drug offense.
Results showed that within 3 years of sentencing, 62 percent either had a disciplinary hearing for violating a condition of their probation or were arrested for another felony.
In addition, within 3 years, 46 percent had been sent to prison or jail or had absconded, Crime in America.
Thus the finding that 50 percent complete probation seems logical based on the comparison data.
Most On Probation are Felons
Who is on probation? Felony cases went from 50 percent of the probation population in 2005 to 57 percent in 2015, which means that probation is handling a more challenging workload, Crime in America.
Parole
Approximately 56 percent of those on state parole completed their sentence in the community in 2016.
Comparison Data:
The most common understanding of recidivism is based on data from the US Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, stating that two-thirds (68 percent) of prisoners released were arrested for a new crime within three years of release from prison, and three-quarters (77 percent) were arrested within five years.
Within 3 years of release, 49.7% of inmates either had an arrest that resulted in a conviction with a disposition of a prison sentence or were returned to prison without a new conviction because they violated a technical condition of their release; as did 55.1% of inmates within 5 years of release, see Crime in America.
If approximately 56 percent of parolees complete their sentences, and the federal comparison data indicates that 77 percent were arrested in five years and 55 percent were incarcerated, there are a considerable number of arrests or serious infractions that need explanation.
Some will suggest that the difference is based on efforts to reduce correctional populations to reduce the financial burdens on states. Some are simply violating fewer offenders regardless of their transgressions.
Criminal History
Considering the vast difference in criminal histories between probationers and parolees, it seems almost impossible for parolees to have much higher rates of completions compared to probationers, Crime in America.
A proven tenant (per the US Sentencing Commission) is that serious criminal history is predictive of future criminality, Crime in America.
State Comparisons
Within the appendix of the document, data on individual states is offered. Some states violate (those deemed unsuccessful) higher rates than the approximate averages stated above, and some states violate fewer. For example, a higher number of probationers in Pennsylvania complete supervision. The majority of parolees complete their sentences in North Dakota.
The discrepancies at the state level are probably policy driven than other factors.
There is no uniform theory or practice within parole and probation agencies. What will get you sentenced back to prison in one state will have a different outcome in another.
What Are There Reasons for the Decline in Probation?
This site has tracked America’s prison and correctional populations for close to a decade and the reasons for the decline are many. Issues include:
Record lows for crime over the course of the last two decades except for the rise in violent crime for 2015 and 2016 per the FBI, US Crime.
Significant reductions in arrests for most categories, see FBI-Arrests.
Demands on the part of governors to reign in prison costs, considered by many to be the driving force in correctional and sentencing reform.
Example Data
There are close to two million fewer arrests comparing 2006 to 2015 for a 22 percent reduction (link above).
There are close to 390,000 fewer violent crimes from 1997 to 2016 per the FBI. There are close to 3,640,000 fewer property crimes for the same time period. The numbers will be considerably greater if one uses data from the National Crime Survey that counts reported and unreported crime.
Policies
The driving force in fewer people on parole and probation seems to be less crime and dramatically fewer arrests over the long term.
There have also been significant policy changes at the state level. Since that 2008 peak, 36 states reduced their imprisonment rates, including declines of 15 percent or more in 20 states from diverse regions of the country, such as Alaska, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Connecticut, Pew.
Pew and many other advocacy organizations insist that policy changes run concurrently with reduced crime, but some of that reporting involves considerable and ongoing national reductions in crime, regardless of the reason.
Most of the states involved in sentencing reform have reduced sentences or raised the bar as to what constitutes a felony or have legalized activities such as possession of marijuana, thus its fair to suggest that sentences to probation are not only fewer but shorter.
Bureau of Justice Statistics Report
The number of adults supervised by the U.S. correctional system dropped for the ninth consecutive year in 2016. The correctional population includes persons supervised in the community on probation or parole and those incarcerated in prisons or local jails.
From 2007 to 2016, the proportion of the adult population under the supervision of U.S. correctional authorities decreased by 18 percent, from 3,210 to 2,640 adults under correctional supervision per 100,000 residents.
The number of adults under correctional supervision per 100,000 U.S. adult residents was lower in 2016 (2,640) than at any time since 1993 (2,550).
Overall, about 1 in 38 adults were under some form of correctional supervision at year-end 2016.
An estimated 6,613,500 persons were under correctional supervision on December 31, 2016, about 62,700 fewer persons than on January 1.
The total correctional population declined 0.9 percent during 2016 due to decreases in both the community supervision population (down 1.1 percent) and the incarcerated population (down 0.5 percent).
The incarcerated population decreased from 2,172,800 in 2015 to 2,162,400 in 2016. All of the decrease in the incarcerated population was due to a decline in the prison population (down 21,200), while the jail population remained relatively stable.
The number of persons held in prison or local jail per 100,000 U.S. adult residents (incarceration rate) has declined since 2009 and is currently at its lowest rate (860 per 100,000 in 2016) since 1996 (830 per 100,000).
During 2016, the community supervision population fell from 4,586,900 on January 1 to 4,537,100 at year-end. All of the decrease in the community supervision population in 2016 was due to a decline in the probation population (down 52,500).
The parole population increased 0.5 percent in 2016 (up 4,300 persons).
More than two-thirds (69 percent) of the correctional population were supervised in the community at year-end 2016, similar to the percentage observed in 2007.
Source
Completions and Data Inadequacies
I state that 50 percent of those on state probation completed their sentence in 2016, and 56 percent of those on state parole completed their sentence in 2016. This is contrasted to those incarcerated, or who die, or abscond, or have detainers, or other categories.
See appendix, table three for probation and appendix, table seven for parole. I use rounded numbers. Note that for both, there are large numbers of “other’s” and “unknown’s” that may skew data. Regardless as to how hard the Bureau of Justice Statistics tries to encourage uniformity, there are states that do not report data, or report it poorly.
If federal data is to provide insight as to criminal justice operations, it needs to be offered, warts and all.
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