Observations
Offenders convicted of a firearms offense had the highest rearrest rate (68.4%), followed by offenders convicted of a violent offense (64.1%), and an immigration offense (55.1%).
Criminal history is a strong predictor of recidivism.
Author
Leonard A. Sipes, Jr.
Thirty-five years of speaking for national and state criminal justice agencies. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Post-Masters’ Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University.
Article
This article is based on a report from the US Sentencing Commission and recidivism based on the current (or instant) offense, and criminal history of federal offenders.
As previously reported, federal offenders (includes those convicted of D.C. code violations) recidivate less because they are held for longer periods of time; serving a mandated 85 percent of sentence, Crime in America.
Overview
The US Sentencing Commission studied whether a current crime category and/or criminal history predict recidivism.
As found in previous Commission reports, criminal history category is a strong predictor of recidivism. The analyses show that criminal history points, category, and seriousness of past offenses are strong predictors of recidivism.
The Commission grouped offenders by the number of criminal history points assigned to any single prior conviction and examined the rearrest rates for each group. An offender’s past convictions are assigned one, two, or three points based on the nature of the offense and sentence.
These point assignments are designed to reflect the seriousness of the offense of conviction, with three-point sentences almost always representing a felony conviction.
The analysis indicates that the number of criminal history points assigned to a single prior conviction does predict recidivism. Offenders with more serious offenses in their criminal history had higher rearrest rates than those with less serious sentences.
Who Offends Again?
Offenders convicted of a firearms offense had the highest rearrest rate (68.4%), followed by offenders convicted of a violent offense (64.1%), and an immigration offense (55.1%).
Offenders convicted of an economic crime had the lowest rearrest rate (35.9%).
Of all offenders who were rearrested, offenders convicted of a violent offense had the shortest median time to rearrest (14 months), followed by offenders convicted of an immigration offense (16 months), and a firearms offense (17 months).
Offenders convicted of a child pornography offense had the longest median time to rearrest (26 months).
For all offenders, except for offenders convicted of a child pornography offense, assault was one of the top two most common offenses of rearrest.
Per an email from the Commission, “Nearly all U.S. citizens convicted of immigration offenses are sentenced under the alien smuggling guideline.”
Criminal History Predicts Recidivism
As found in previous Commission reports, criminal history is a strong predictor of recidivism. An offender’s federal instant offense is grouped into one of seven broad categories: violent, drug trafficking, firearms, immigration, economic crime, child pornography, and other offenses.
The analyses contained in this report show that the various components, including criminal history points, category, and seriousness of past offenses as reflected in point assignment to past convictions also are strong predictors of recidivism.
Criminal History Points and Criminal History Category
An offender’s total criminal history score is a strong predictor of recidivism. Rearrest rates range from a low of 30.2 percent of offenders with zero criminal history points to a high of 85.7 percent for offenders with 15 or more criminal history points.
Each additional criminal history point is generally associated with a greater likelihood of recidivism.
One-Point, Two-Point, and Three-Point Sentences
An offender’s past convictions are assigned one, two, or three points based on the nature of the offense and sentence.
These point assignments reflect the seriousness of the offender’s past conviction.
Offenders with only one-point sentences have significantly lower rearrest rates (53.4%) than offenders with a two-point but no three-point sentence (71.3%), or offenders with a three-point sentence (70.5%).
Source
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