Is America entering a new era of increasing violence?
Editor’s Note: What follows is an excerpt from a larger article from Crime In America.Net titled, “Violent and Property Crime in the US–Crime in America,” see source below.
Article:
The bottom line is that violent and property crime are still at record lows for the country and, generally speaking, have been decreasing for the last two decades except for recent years (2011, 2012 and the first six months of 2015 as examples). There have been additional increases since 1990-the rate of violent crime in the US increased in 2005 and 2006 but returned to decreases in 2007.
But yes, violent crime is increasing throughout the Unites States. We predicted the increase for 2015, and we predict another increase in 2016. According to FBI data, it’s rare for the rate of violent crime to increase for one year only.
According to recent US Department of Justice funded data measuring murders in 56 cities, “…the homicide rise in 2015 in the nation’s large cities was real and, while not unprecedented, comparatively large. The average homicide increase over 2014 in the top ten was 33.3 percent, compared with a 16.8-percent rise for the sample as a whole.”
“One-year increases of this magnitude in the nation’s large cities, although not unknown, are very rare.”
Our note: Generally speaking, homicides and violent crime trendlines match over time.
Crime Reported to Law Enforcement-FBI Data
All categories of violent crime increased for the first six months of 2015 (latest data) which was very predictable. There were media reports in multiple cities in 2015 that homicides and violent crime were increasing.
Those media reports of increases in many (not all) cities continues for 2016.
Aggravated assault and rapes increased in 2014 while overall violent crime remained flat (tiny decrease) compared to 2013. The FBI states that the decrease in violent crime went from 4.6 percent in the first six months of 2014 to 1.2 percent for all of 2014. It led some (including this site) to suggest that violent crime was increasing.
Decreases in 2014 and 2013 from both national reports (FBI and National Crime Survey) and increases in crime found in National Crime Survey data (for 2011 and 2012) and the 2012 FBI report (violent crime increases) created mixed results and needed to be watched carefully, but the trend over decades is clearly down, while increasing in recent years.
Criminologists and criminal justice specialists were puzzled by the continuing decreases in crime in the past and offered little in terms of an explanation, but some are now expressing concern regarding full FBI data in 2014 and the first six months of 2015. Some in criminal justice circles are predicting increases in violent crime for the final six months of 2015 and beyond.
We agree that violent crime will continue to increase throughout 2016.
Fear of Crime
We note that Americans’ level of concern about crime and violence is at its highest point in 15 years, says a new Gallup survey. Fifty-three percent of U.S. adults say they personally worry “a great deal” about crime and violence, an increase of 14 percentage points since 2014. Gallup said the figure is the highest the firm has measured since March 2001 (source below).
Sources
“Violent and Property Crime in the US–Crime in America” (the larger article) is available at https://www.crimeinamerica.net/crime-rates-united-states/. FBI data cited are available in the larger article.
Documenting and Explaining the 2015 Homicide Rise: Research Directions available at https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/249895.pdf
Contact us at crimeinamerica@gmail.com. Media on deadline, use leonardsipes@gmail.com.