Violent Crime Increases in 2021

Highlights

Preliminary data for 2021 from non-federal sources indicate that violence continues to increase.

Homicides increased by nearly 30 percent in 2020. Overall violence and aggravated assaults also increased.

There is a surge in police officers leaving law enforcement per the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Article

In this article, I respond to readers asking for data as to violent crime for 2021.

A comprehensive overview of crime in the United States plus fear of crime and related issues is available at US Crime Rates.

This source also explains the difference between the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey (both are US Department of Justice agencies) and their research.

Changes are also coming in the way the FBI reports crime.

Increasing Violent Crime-2020

I just did an article on rising violent crime in 2020:

Per 2020 FBI final statistics released in late September 2021, the number of homicides increased nearly 30% from 2019, the largest single-year increase the agency has recorded since it began tracking these crimes in the 1960s.

There were more than 21,500 murders last year, a total not seen since the mid-1990s.

In 2020, violent crime was up 5.6 percent from the 2019 number. The estimated number of aggravated assault offenses rose 12.1 percent, and the volume of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter offenses increased 29.4 percent.

The estimated number of robbery offenses fell 9.3 percent and the estimated volume of rape (revised definition) offenses decreased 12.0 percent.

Property crimes continued to decrease. The exception is motor vehicle thefts which rose 11.8 percent, Homicides and Violent Crime Increases.

We have a 28 percent increase in all violent crime (including simple assaults) per the National Crime Victimization Survey (2015-2019), with increases in serious violence, per the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey, US Crime Rates.

Where’s The Data For 2021?

Readers ask, “where’s the data for 2021?”

The FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics are always about a year behind in providing final data.

For example, the FBI just released final figures for 2020 in late September 2021. The report from the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey for 2020 should be here soon.

Nevertheless, there is data from non-federal sources regarding increases in violence for 2021.

Increasing Violent Crime-2021

As of this writing, we have statistics from the FBI for 2020 and the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey for 2019.  We do not have data from official sources for 2021. However, all indications from news reports indicate a growing problem with homicides and other forms of violent crime.

CNN: So far, 2021 is on pace to be the worst year for gun violence in decades, surpassing even the high levels last year.

According to the Gun Violence Archive, from January 1 to September 15, a total of 14,516 people died from gun violence in the US. That’s 1,300 more than during the same period in 2020, a 9% increase. Mass shootings are also on the rise. Through September 15, there have been 498 mass shootings across the US, or an average of about 1.92 per day. That’s 15% higher than last year, when there were a total of 611, a rate of 1.67 per day, according to data from the GVA.

The rapid rise in gun violence, however, might be slowing down. Richard Rosenfeld, a criminology professor at the University of Missouri–St. Louis and his colleagues found that in the first quarter of 2021, the number of homicides was 23% higher than in 2020. In the second quarter that number went down to 10%, CNN.

Police Executive Research Forum: According to a survey of 157 police agencies by the Police Executive Research Forum, the total number of homicides increased by 12 percent in the first nine months of 2021, compared to the same period in 2020. That represented more than half the increase recorded in a similar period between 2020 and 2019. Hijackings also increased and robberies continued to decline, The Crime Report.

COVID and Crime: During the first quarter of 2021, homicide rates declined from their peak in the summer of 2020, but remained above levels in the first quarter of prior years. The number of homicides rose by 24% compared to the first quarter of 2020 (an increase of 193 homicides) and by 49% compared to the first quarter of 2019 (an increase of 324 homicides).

Aggravated and gun assault rates were also higher in the first quarter of 2021 than in the same period of 2020. Aggravated assault rates increased 7%, while gun assault rates went up by 22%, COVID and Crime.

Reuters: In the first quarter of 2021, the research showed, the murder rate had declined from a peak the previous summer but was still up 24 percent over the first quarter of 2020, Reuters.

Council on Criminal Justice: This year, the number of casualties, along with the overall number of shootings that have killed or injured at least one person, exceeds those of the first five months of 2020, which finished as the deadliest year of gun violence in at least two decades.

The number of homicides increased by 16% during the first half of 2021 – 259 more homicides – compared to the same period the year before, and by 42% – claiming an additional 548 additional lives – compared to the same time frame in 2019. The increase in homicide slowed between the first and second quarters of 2021.

The aggravated assault rate was 9% higher in the first half of 2021 than during the same period in 2020, and the gun assault rate was 5% higher in the first half of 2021 than the year before. Motor vehicle theft rates were 21% higher in the first half of 2021 than the year before.

Other major crimes declined. Robbery (-6%), residential burglary (-9%), nonresidential burglary (-9%), larceny (-6%), and drug offense (-12%) rates dropped from the same period in 2020, Council on Criminal Justice.

Crime in Portland: In the 12 months ending June 30, 2021, more than 1 in every 1,000 Black people living in Portland died in a homicide, a rate far higher than that experienced in U.S. cities most known for gun violence, reports the Willamette Week.

Conclusions

Violent crime continues to increase throughout the United States although concentrated in cities.

The daily media accounts of urban violence are astoundingly concerning. Some writers suggest that violent crime is now impacting medium-size cities more than larger metro areas. Needless to say, entire metropolitan areas are impacted.

However, we “may” see less of an increase in violent crime. The reports above suggest that 2021 will see an increase but with less violence than 2020 where we saw an almost 30 percent increase in homicides per the FBI.

It’s interesting that vehicle thefts continue to increase after many years of decline. Some suggest that keyless entry may be at fault.

The bottom line is that violence is a major problem for the American public impacting every aspect of life.

There is a surge in the number of police officers leaving per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Cops Leaving.

Police officers in cities are no longer being appropriately proactive (per endless news reports) and proactivity is probably the only modality with a research base as to reducing crime, Proactive Policing.

See More

See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.

Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.

US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.

National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.

An Overview Of Data On Mental Health at Mental Health And Crime.

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