Public Opinion And Crime-Fear-Policy And Politics

Highlights

Polling by Gallup showed that violent crime is a concern among 80% of Americans.

National and local perceptions/fear about crime are at or near their peak levels for the past 25 years.

Americans’ concerns over crime have hit a four-year high, according to a Washington Post- ABC News Poll.

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The opinion article below is from Roll Call, a publication covering the US Congress. It’s written by David Winston, the president of The Winston Group.

His assessment is provided as to politics and concern over crime and disunity within the Democratic party. It’s followed by a summation of multi-year data on fear of crime.

Critics will say that this article is a political piece. But an overview of recent fear of crime data provides insight into the hearts and minds of African Americans, Latinos, Asians, and the country as a whole. Collectively, they indicate where America is headed regarding crime policy and politics.

Criminological literature is filled with the impact that crime has on citizens. It destroys communities and cities. Businesses leave. Economic prosperity dies. Jobs are eliminated. School test scores suffer.  Crime is like COVID, it impacts all who come into contact with it. People are leaving cities.

I offer the Roll Call article along with the overview of fear of crime data to provide insight into the beliefs of Americans and what fear of crime can-will do regarding elections, the economy, and our overall lives.

Roll Call-Opinion (rearranged-edited quotes)

Despite Biden and Pelosi’s efforts to stem the bleeding by offering up more funding to stop gun violence and invest in community policing, the WTI research shows that Democrats are losing the issue, with more voters believing that the Democratic Party supports defunding the police than not by a margin of 48 percent to 34 percent.

There are three main reasons for the Democrats’ troubles on this issue. First, there is widespread recognition of just how serious rising crime is becoming, with 7 out of 10 voters believing that across America, violent crime is escalating.

Six out of 10 voters agree with the statement that “families, communities and small business are being endangered and experiencing the devastating effects of rhetoric about defunding the police and police department budget cuts at the hands of politicians.”

These views extend across party, ideology, age and region, making a concept like defunding the police totally out of tune with most voters who oppose it by a 3-to-1 margin.

There’s a second reason for the Democrats’ weakness on the crime issue. The president and other Democrats have tried to have it both ways — trying to pose as supporters of the police while only reluctantly, if at all, acknowledging that crime is a major problem.

On the White House website list of priorities, crime doesn’t even make the list. The White House’s lack of acknowledgment and often dismissive rhetoric about crime, particularly in cities with progressive mayors and prosecutors, has led directly to its weak standing on the issue.

As a result, when voters were asked in the March survey whether they believed Democrats would focus on law enforcement efforts to deal with violent offenders, they were split, with 44 percent believing they would and 43 percent believing they wouldn’t. Independents were even more skeptical, with 36 percent believing and 46 percent not believing.

In contrast, voters by a 61 percent to 27 percent margin believed that Republicans would stand with law enforcement in their efforts to ensure the safety of our communities and the protection of America’s families and children.

Not surprisingly, Democrats trail on the handling of the crime and safety issue by 12 points (48 percent favoring Republicans, 36 percent favoring Democrats) and among independents by 13 points (42 percent-29 percent, with 29 percent undecided). The Democratic Party’s silence about threats to safety has left Democrats supporting a policy position that voters find alienating.

Finally, with police officers, Democrats have chosen the wrong group to vilify. The police have a very favorable brand image (72 percent favorable, 20 percent unfavorable in the March WTI survey). Congressional Democrats have a negative brand at 44 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable. By affiliating themselves with the defund the police movement, they are seen by voters as opposing a very positive group of public servants who are well liked and supported by the electorate.

Summation Of Recent Fear of Crime Data

1. The Rasmussen Reports group showed that 61% of their respondents believe that violent crime in America is getting worse. And polling by Gallup showed that violent crime is a concern among 80% of Americans, including 53% who worry a “great deal” and 27% who are concerned to a “fair” degree. The Rasmussen survey was released on April 8, 2022, the Gallup poll was made public on April 7.
2. National and local perceptions/fear about crime are at or near their peak levels for the past 25 years. Americans are more likely to perceive crime in the U.S. as having increased over the prior year than they have been at any point since 1993, Gallup. Crime may be an important issue in next year’s midterm elections, Gallup. Most Americans are impacted by street or computer crimes yearly. Fifty-one percent, up from 38% in 2020, say there is more crime in their area than a year ago, Gallup.
3. Crime is a national concern, Pew. The economy, health care, and COVID led the categories.

4. Americans’ concerns over crime have hit a four-year high, according to a Washington Post- ABC News poll released Friday. Fifty-nine percent of respondents said that crime is an “extremely” or “very serious” problem in the U.S., the highest level since 2017. On a local level, worries about crime are also growing, though lower than the national concern, The Hill (Newspaper Of Congress).

1. Americans are more likely to perceive crime in the U.S. as having increased over the prior year (78%) than they have been at any point since 1993, Gallup.

Gallup presents a multi-year overview of perceptions of crime, Gallup.

After the riots and protests of 2020, a majority of Americans say they are concerned about rising crime in U.S. cities, according to a new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill. Seventy-seven percent of respondents say they are concerned that crime is rising in the nation’s cities, while 46 percent of respondents said they were concerned about rising crime in their own communities, The Hill.

Mass Shootings: In the wake of two August mass shootings that claimed the lives of 31 people in one weekend, Americans are more worried about themselves or a family member being the victim of a mass shooting than they were after two previous massacres. Currently, 48% of U.S. adults are “very” or “somewhat” worried, compared with 39% in 2017 after one gunman killed 58 people in Las Vegas and 38% in 2015 after a San Bernardino shooter left 14 dead, Gallup.

Worry About Crime: 75 percent of Americans worry about crime and violence (April 2019), Gallup.

Fear of crime was the top national concern in 2018. Per Gallup, 75 percent of Americans worry about crime and violence (down from 78 percent in March 2018), which was the same as health care, the top concern, Fear of Crime. Gallup asked those polled if they worried about topics a great deal or a fair amount. Crime was ranked the same as health care using a combined score.

Half of Americans believe crime is very or extremely serious. In 2018, just under half (49%) of Americans believe the problem of crime in the United States is very or extremely serious — a 10-percentage-point drop and the first time the number has been below 50% since 2005, Serious Crime Concerns.

Sixty-One Percent Say Violent Crime Is A Very Big Problem. Americans’ attitudes about police funding in their own community shifted in 2021. Sixty-one percent of Americans also said violent crime was a very big problem—up 20 percentage points from June 2020. In addition to the rise in support for increased funding, support for reducing police spending has fallen significantly, down from 25% in June 2020 to 15% today, Pew

Crime A National Concern. As crime rates continue to soar across the country, a new Fox Business survey finds almost 8 in 10 registered voters  (77 percent) are “extremely” or “very” concerned about the surge. The only issue more pressing is inflation (84 percent “extremely” or “very” concerned), Fox Business.

14. 42% Of Black Adults Say Crime Is A Major Problem. Some 43% of urban residents now say crime is a major problem in their community, compared with 35% in 2018. Perceptions of these problems differ by race and ethnicity. For example, 42% of Black adults say crime is a major problem in their community, compared with 30% of Hispanic adults, 24% of Asian adults and 17% of White adults. In urban areas, where the issues included in the survey tend to be seen as more of a problem than in other community types, Black adults are more likely than their White and Hispanic counterparts to see drug addiction, crime and racism as major problems in their communities. Lower-income adults in urban areas are even more likely to see drug addiction (59%) and crime (51%) as major problems. This is significantly more than the shares of lower-income adults in suburban and rural areas. Needless to say, Pew addressed “major” problems. If we included “problems” with crime and violence, the percentage would be much higher, Pew.

15. Latinos And Violent Crime. Latinos say crime and gun violence is their number two concern — behind COVID-19 and before immigration, social justice or voting rights — in our inaugural Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll in partnership with Noticias Telemundo. Why it matters: This finding and others in our poll could be warning signs for President Biden and his party next year, even as respondents by a two-to-one margin prefer generic Democratic midterm candidates over Republicans, Axios.

1. Asian Americans. About eight in ten Asian Americans say violence against them is increasing in the U.S., an April survey found.

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