Highlights
As to crime in America, who do we believe, the FBI with its 3 percent decrease in violent crime, or the National Crime Victimization Survey with the largest increase in violent crime in the nation’s history? Both are US Department of Justice agencies offering 2023 data.
FBI data is based on crimes reported to law enforcement and the vast majority are not.
The National Crime Victimization Survey is an accounting of all crimes except homicides.
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention and Statistics for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public Affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former police officer. Retired federal senior spokesperson.
Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Produced successful state anti-crime media campaigns.
Thirty-five years of directing award-winning (50+) public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed thousands of times by every national news outlet, often with a focus on crime statistics and research. Created the first state and federal podcasting series. Produced a unique and emulated style of government proactive public relations.
Certificate of Advanced Study-The Johns Hopkins University.
Author of ”Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization” available at Amazon and additional booksellers.
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Article
There are two primary reports from the US Department of Justice on crime. One is based on crimes reported to law enforcement and compiled by the FBI. The vast majority of crimes are not reported to the police and are not included in FBI reports.
The FBI offers a drop of 3 percent in violent crime for 2023.
Murders decreased by 11.6 percent which was expected considering that homicides rose approximately 30 percent nationwide and 50 percent in cities in recent years. Sustaining a 30-50 percent increase in murders would be almost impossible.
The other national report is the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) from the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics which involves a yearly survey. The survey is over 50 years old and was created to include all criminal activity in the US except homicides (you can’t interview dead persons).
Per Bureau of Justice Statistics data, the nation’s largest increase in violent crime (2022) largely continued in 2023.
Unreported Crime
For 2022, approximately 40 percent of violent crime was reported to law enforcement per the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics.
For property crime, it was approximately 30 percent.
Per USDOJ agencies, approximately 25 percent of juvenile crime was reported. For identity theft, roughly 7 percent of incidents were reported. About 12,000 hate crime incidents were reported to the FBI and approximately 250,000 yearly hate crime incidents were recorded by the Bureau of Justice Statistics NCVS.
For 2023, the National Crime Victimization Survey states that violent crime reporting rose to approximately 45 percent (from 41.5 percent in 2022) yet the FBI offers a 3 percent decrease.
Property crime reporting via the NCVS dropped slightly but it’s still approximately 30 percent; the FBI is offering decreases in all property crimes except for auto theft.
We choose to make policies and judgments about crime largely based on crimes reported to law enforcement via the FBI. Their new report will be widely covered by mainstream media while NCVS data remains missing in most analyses.
FBI data represents reported crime, not total crime.
The criminological community has traditionally supported the National Crime Victimization Survey as a far more accurate overview of crime in the United States. Crimes reported to law enforcement via the FBI involved 14 million criminal offenses compared to the 40 million plus figure via the NCVS (including identity theft).
FBI Releases 2023 Crime in the Nation Statistics-Violence Decreases 3 Percent
The FBI released detailed data on over 14 million criminal offenses for 2023 reported to the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program by participating law enforcement agencies. More than 16,000 agencies, covering a combined population of 94.3% inhabitants, submitted data to the UCR Program through the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) and the Summary Reporting System.
The FBI’s crime statistics estimates, based on reported data for 2023, show that national violent crime decreased an estimated 3.0 percent in 2023 compared to 2022 estimates.
Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded a 2023 estimated nationwide decrease of 11.6% compared to the previous year.
In 2023, the estimated number of offenses in the revised rape category saw an estimated 9.4% decrease.
Aggravated assault figures decreased an estimated 2.8 percent in 2023.
Robbery showed an estimated decrease of 0.3 percent nationally.
Overall property crime was down by 2.4 percent.
Burglary decreased by 7.6 percent.
Larceny dropped by 4.4 percent.
Motor Vehicle Theft increased by 12.6 percent.
In 2023, 16,009 agencies participated in the hate crime collection, with a population coverage of 95.2%. Law enforcement agencies submitted incident reports involving 11,862 criminal incidents and 13,829 related offenses as being motivated by bias toward race, ethnicity, ancestry, religion, sexual orientation, disability, gender, and gender identity.
According to this dataset, reported hate crime incidents decreased 0.6% from 10,687 in 2022 to 10,627 in 2023.
The complete analysis is located on the FBI’s Crime Data Explorer.
National Crime Victimization Survey Releases 2023 Crime Statistics-Largest Increase in Violent Crime In The Nation’s History
The National Crime Victimization Survey in a 2023 report for the calendar year 2022 offered the largest increase in violent crime in the nation’s history (44 percent) per analyst Jeff Asher, and The Marshall Project.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics did not provide the percentage increase (but they have provided percentage increases multiple times in the past).
Per the press release (September 12, 2024) from the US Department of Justice for the new 2023 report, “Data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) indicate that in 2023, the rate of nonfatal violent victimization in the United States was 22.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older, which was similar to the 2022 rate of 23.5 violent victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.”
Per the September 12, 2024, USDOJ press release headline, “Violent victimization unchanged year over year…”
That means that the record 44 percent increase in US violence largely continues from 2022 to 2023.
It remains the largest increase in violent crime in the nation’s history.
Many of us who write about crime expected a reduction in violence via the National Crime Victimization Survey for 2023 simply because the increases were monumentally high for the last report for 2022. Our assumption of “what goes up comes down” did not occur for rates of overall violence. The huge increase in violence and juvenile crime (separate NCVS report) for 2022 largely remains for 2023.
Per the NCVS, households in the United States experienced 13.6 million property victimizations in 2023. The number of property victimizations was comparable to the number in 2022 but higher than the 12.8 million in 2019. Property crime includes burglary or trespassing, motor vehicle theft, and other types of household theft.
Conclusions
Based on the totality of crimes in 2023 via the USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey, the nation’s largest increase in violent crime in 2022 largely continued in 2023.
Based on crimes reported to law enforcement via the FBI, the 45 percent of violent crimes reported decreased by 3 percent.
An analysis of comparisons between the FBI and the National Crime Victimization Survey is forthcoming.
For example, according to the NCVS, there is a huge decrease in reported robberies yet the FBI is reporting a small decrease.
Per the NCVS, there is a big decrease in reported vehicle thefts. Per the FBI, vehicle thefts increased.
Yet the biggest issue to consider is that most of the decreases reported by the FBI are rather small. An estimated 3.0 percent decrease in violent crime? Aggravated assault figures decreased by an estimated 2.8 percent? Robbery showed an estimated decrease of 0.3 percent? Overall property crime was down by 2.4 percent?
With approximately 45 percent of violent crimes reported and approximately 30 percent of property crimes reported (property crime is approximately 80 percent of overall crime), the figures noted above from the FBI could easily be increases.
They are simply too small to be embraced as fact, especially when compared to the massive numbers provided by the National Crime Victimization Survey.
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