Highlights
For the first time in many years, incarcerations and arrests, seem to be increasing with a slight expansion of police officers after losing 25,000 cops. Crimes solved, however, remain flat.
If you deal with victim rights organizations, they will tell you that accountability for criminal offenders can be either challenging or nonexistent. They suggest that this has a profound impact on people trusting government. According to polls of attitudes towards institutions, they are correct. Trust in government and institutions is low.
This article is available as a podcast on YouTube and other podcasting services.
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention and Statistics for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public Affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former police officer. Retired federal senior spokesperson.
Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Produced successful state anti-crime media campaigns.
Thirty-five years of directing award-winning (50+) public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed thousands of times by every national news outlet, often with a focus on crime statistics and research. Created the first state and federal podcasting series. Produced a unique and emulated style of government proactive public relations.
Certificate of Advanced Study-The Johns Hopkins University.
Author of ”Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization” available at Amazon and additional booksellers.
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Quote-The Brennan Center
“Tough on Crime’ 2.0. Despite widespread agreement among experts across the political spectrum that past “tough on crime” policies only fueled mass incarceration and wasted government resources without improving safety, the Justice Department now seems ready to revert to these failed tactics. The DOJ’s new internal guidance pushes for harsher sentencing and ramped-up enforcement of immigration violations. The new attorney general should embrace evidence-based, bipartisan reforms instead of repeating the mistakes of the past”
Article
Crime control efforts seem to be moving towards more accountability for criminal offenders.
For the first time in many years, incarcerations and arrests seem to be increasing with a slight expansion of police officers. Crimes solved, however, remain flat.
All of this has an impact on crime and citizen perceptions. For decades, criminologists have postured that the certainty of apprehension and consequences impact crime. Millions of crime victims lament that there’s little accountability for their victimization. This has resulted in a record number of people now opening firearms. Crime is the principal reason for people moving. Fear of crime is at record highs per Gallup.
But gauging crime numbers and rates is a confusing mess. Per the US Department of Justice’s National Crime Victimization Survey, violent crime rates are up by record numbers, 44 percent. It’s the largest increase in violent crime in US history. The flip side is FBI data indicating a three percent decrease in violent crime for its latest full report in 2023.
There has been a raging debate in the US regarding proactive policing, arrests, crimes solved, and incarceration. One side (quote above) insists that we don’t need what they consider overaggressive or harsh responses from the justice system.
Others insist that accountability for criminal activity is clearly lagging but it’s in society’s best interest. If society perceives little to no accountability, their respect for the justice system and willingness to follow society’s rules wanes. Per polling, respect for most institutions (including the justice system) is at all-time lows. Some polls suggest that “the government” is their primary concern exceeding inflation or illegal immigration. However, the police profession ranks higher than most.
The crime discussion seems to center on whether you are sympathetic to those caught up in the justice system or your concern lies with victims of crime.
So what does the data say?
Incarcerations Decreased 21 Percent From 2013-Bureau Of Justice Statistics
The U.S. prison population was 1,254,200 at yearend 2023, a 2 percent increase from 2022 (1,230,100). At yearend 2023, persons sentenced to more than 1 year under the legal authority of state and federal correctional authorities accounted for 96% (1,210,300) of the total U.S. prison population.
There were 1,124,400 males sentenced to more than 1 year in state or federal prison at yearend 2023 (93% of the U.S. prison population sentenced to more than 1 year). This represents an increase of 2% from yearend 2022 (1,103,200) but a decrease of 21% from 2013 (1,416,100).
There were 85,900 females sentenced to more than 1 year in state or federal prison at yearend 2023. This represents an increase of 4% from yearend 2022 (82,500) but a decrease of 18% from 2013 (104,300).
However, the number of persons sentenced to more than 1 year under the jurisdiction of the Federal Bureau of Prisons decreased 2 percent from yearend 2022 (146,100) to yearend 2023 (143,300).
Arrests-Federal Arrests Increase 24 Percent After Falling to a 20-Year Low
State Arrests Cut In Half Before Increasing In 2023-Statisca
There were over 7.55 million arrests for all offenses in the United States in 2023. This figure is a decrease from 1990 levels when the number of arrests was over 14.1 million. Arrests plummeted during protests over police use of force issues.
Crimes Solved-Is There Now Stability?
Overall, while clearance rates for certain crimes like homicides have decreased over the decades, the rates for other offenses have remained relatively stable per Chat GPT, possibly as a result of a slight turnaround in the number of police officers. Getting updated or 2023 USDOJ or FBI information on crimes solved was unproductive.
The FBI uses the term solved or solved by exceptional means which refers to identifying a suspect that is unattainable (i.e., in prison or cannot be located).
Solved Homicides-Worst In The World?
The U.S. is among the worst at solving murders in the industrialized world, NPR.
While the rate at which murders are solved or “cleared” has been declining for decades, it has now dropped to slightly below 50% in 2020 – a new historic low. And several big cities, including Chicago, have seen the number of murder cases resulting in at least one arrest dip into the low to mid-30 percent range.
Pew-Lowest Levels Since 1993
Nationwide clearance rates for both violent and property crime are at their lowest levels since at least 1993, FBI data shows.
Police cleared a little over a third (36.7%) of the violent crimes that came to their attention in 2022, down from nearly half (48.1%) as recently as 2013. During the same period, there were decreases for each of the four types of violent crime the FBI tracks:
- Police cleared 52.3% of reported murders and nonnegligent homicides in 2022, down from 64.1% in 2013.
- They cleared 41.4% of aggravated assaults, down from 57.7%.
- They cleared 26.1% of rapes, down from 40.6%.
- They cleared 23.2% of robberies, down from 29.4%.
The pattern is less pronounced for property crime. Overall, law enforcement agencies cleared 12.1% of reported property crimes in 2022, down from 19.7% in 2013. The clearance rate for burglary didn’t change much, but it fell for larceny/theft (to 12.4% in 2022 from 22.4% in 2013) and motor vehicle theft (to 9.3% from 14.2%).
FBI-Crimes Cleared-2022
So Have Crimes Solved Or Cleared Increased or Decreased?-Chat GPT
In the United States, clearance rates—the proportion of reported crimes that law enforcement agencies solve—have generally decreased over the past several decades. This decline varies by crime type:
Homicide:
- In 1962, the clearance rate for homicides was approximately 93%.
- By 2020, this rate had fallen to around 54%.
- In 2022, the clearance rate for murders and nonnegligent manslaughters was 52.3%.
Violent Crimes:
- In 2013, police cleared nearly half (48.1%) of violent crimes.
- By 2022, this figure had decreased to 36.7%.
Property Crimes:
- Clearance rates for property crimes also declined, from 19.7% in 2013 to 12.1% in 2022.
These trends indicate a general decrease in the proportion of crimes solved by law enforcement in recent decades.
Overall, while clearance rates for certain crimes like homicides have decreased over the decades, the rates for other offenses have remained relatively stable.
Conclusions
We have problems with offender accountability. We lost over 25,000 police officers. Arrests have plummeted since 1996. Crimes solved have decreased by huge amounts. The state prison population decreased substantially.
If you trust the USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey, we are at record highs for rates with the largest increase in violence in the nation’s history. If you depend on crimes reported to law enforcement (the overwhelming majority are not), there is a decrease in violence of three percent for the last full report in 2023.
If you deal with victim rights organizations, they will tell you that accountability for criminal offenders can be either challenging or nonexistent. They suggest that this has a profound impact on people trusting the government. According to polls of attitudes towards institutions, they are correct.
But there seems to be a slight rebound in police officers, arrests, and incarcerations with crimes solved being flat. Will all this improve? Time will tell.
Readers may want to review, Most Crimes Are Not Solved-Why? where the indication is that the lack of crimes solved may be related to the loss of thousands of police officers.
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