A 50% Increase In Homicides-36% Increase In Aggravated Assaults

Highlights

An overview of increasing violence and property crimes in the United States in 2022. The most recent yearly federal reports were for 2020.

Per The Major Chiefs Association for 2022, compared to 2019 midyear figures, cities experienced a 50% increase in homicides and a roughly 36% increase in aggravated assaults.

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Note

This article was featured by the nationally syndicated Armstrong Williams Show. I was a guest.

Article

People are asking about the current status of crime and violence in the US in 2022 and when new data from the FBI (crimes reported to law enforcement) and the Bureau of Justice Statistics (a national survey of all crime) will be available. Traditionally, these agencies offer yearly reports in late September or early October.

The last full reports covered 2020. 2021 data will be released soon. Quarterly reports from the FBI were paused because of the lack of participation from law enforcement agencies per their new National Incident-Based Reporting System, so it will be interesting to see if first quarter data for 2022 will also be released.

See Violent And Property Crimes In The US for the latest reports on crime and fear of crime. Fear is at its highest levels in recent years.

Violence Is Increasing

Violence is Increasing. Per Axios And The Major Cities Chiefs Association, compared to 2019 midyear figures, the same cities in total have experienced a 50% increase in homicides and a roughly 36% increase in aggravated assaults.

Some speculate that the President’s crime plan regarding increasing the number of police officers and additional funds for other initiatives is in anticipation of federal reports stating that crime and violence increased. But there is a considerable exodus of police officers, with multiple cities claiming that they don’t have enough staff to respond to 911 calls.

Half Of American Households Experience Crime

Per Gallup (October 2021), there is a big increase in the criminal victimization of urban households in 2021, 30 percent compared to 22 percent in 2020. Seven percent of urban residents were violently victimized compared to 3% of U.S. adults. The majority of Americans live in urban areas. The collective data (urban crime victimization-computer crime) indicates a growing crime problem for at least half of American households, Gallup.

Per The Latest Crime Reports From The FBI

Per 2020 FBI final statistics released in September 2021, the number of homicides increased nearly 30% from 2019, the largest single-year increase the agency has recorded since it began tracking these crimes in the 1960s. There were more than 21,500 murders last year, a total not seen since the mid-1990s.

In 2020, violent crime was up 5.6 percent from the 2019 number. The estimated number of aggravated assault offenses rose 12.1 percent, and the volume of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter offenses increased 29.4 percent.

The estimated number of robbery offenses fell 9.3 percent and the estimated volume of rape (revised definition) offenses decreased by 12.0 percent. Property crimes continued to decrease. The exception is motor vehicle thefts which rose 11.8 percent.

Per the Bureau of Justice Statics, violence decreased in 2020. See Violent And Property Crime in The US for an explanation.

The Current Status Of Crime and Violence In 2022

From The Crime Report:

The number of homicides and gun assaults began to fall in the first six months of 2022, but they still remain at a troubling high level, according to a cautious analysis released by the Council on Criminal Justice.

A study of about two dozen cities where overall crime data was available showed that the number of murders dropped by 2 percent between January and June of this year, compared to the same period in 2021. That amounted to a decrease of 54 homicides, researchers said.

They pointed out that aggravated assault numbers in the cities under review still rose by 4 percent, and robberies spiked by 19 percent.

It is not clear whether they indicate a definitive reversal of what the researchers acknowledge was a “historic” 30 percent increase in  murders between  2019 and 2020.

At the same time, nearly all categories of nonviolent theft have increased: residential burglaries, up 6 percent; nonresidential burglaries, up 8 percent; larcenies, up by a striking 20 percent; and motor vehicle thefts, up 15 percent.

From The Crime Report:

Nationwide, shootings are down four percent this year compared to the same time last year, with murders in big cities down three percent, potentially making this the first year since 2018 in which the numbers fell in the U.S. reports the New York Times.

From Axios And The Major Cities Chiefs Association:

Homicides in major U.S. cities are dropping in 2022, but total violent crime continues to rise, according to a midyear survey of large law enforcement agencies.

Why it matters: The annual midyear survey shows that violent crime rates still haven’t returned to pre-pandemic levels, but homicides and rapes in some cities appear to be falling.

By the numbers: Overall violent crime spiked 4.2% from Jan. 1 to June 30, 2022, compared to the same period as last year, the survey by the Major Cities Chiefs Association found.

• Robbery skyrocketed by nearly 12% and aggravated assaults increased by around 3%, the survey of 70 agencies found.
• Homicides decreased by 2.4% and rapes fell by 5% in major cities, offering hope that some of the most violent crimes might be leveling off from significant increases in 2020, as reported to the FBI.

Yes, but: Compared to 2019 midyear figures, the same cities in total have experienced a 50% increase in homicides and a roughly 36% increase in aggravated assaults.

Conclusions

The FBI, based on crimes reported to law enforcement (about 40 percent of violent crimes are reported, it’s much less for property crimes) will soon be released for 2021 and will probably indicate significant growth in overall violence.

The reports above indicate that homicides have leveled off or decreased a bit but that’s speculation. If you look at Most Dangerous Cities, you will find references to cities with increasing rates of homicides and overall violence. Just note that smaller numbers for some cities can create significant increases or decreases in violence.

The bottom line is that overall violence along with motor vehicle theft and larcenies have increased. Robberies seem to have grown considerably along with aggravated assaults. Burglaries, both commercial and residential, have also increased.

Property crime diminished in past years. The historic decline in property crimes may have come to an end.

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