Highlights
Americans state that crime is one of their top concerns. Per Gallup, fear of crime is at record levels. Crime was a top issue in the last national election.
There are multiple articles stating that Americans have no justifications for their concerns about crime. Are Americans clueless or silly or misinformed? Or are their concerns justified?
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of directing award-winning public relations (and explaining crime data) for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet.
Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public affairs-University of Maryland, University College.
Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University. Former police officer. Aspiring drummer.
Author of ”Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization” available at Amazon and additional booksellers.
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Quotes
All quotes are edited for brevity.
Overview Of Crime Data
There is a comprehensive overview of crime data from this site, see Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S.
Article
Fear of crime is at record levels per Gallup but every article I read or every news broadcast I see addresses the rather silly nature of Americans when it comes to their fear of crime. The consistent message is that Americans have little to no reason to be this concerned or fearful.
We’re told that we have never lived in safer times. The President tells us that crime is at record lows. The message? Americans are clueless.
The Data
The Hill: “Nearly two-thirds of Americans believe crime is an “extremely” or “very” serious problem in the U.S., according to a Gallup poll.”
Gallup: American Concerns
Pew: America’s Top Priorities
Why Is Crime A Top Concern Of Americans?
If you take the polls from Pew and Gallup and combine crime with drug use and terrorism, crime (broadly defined) becomes the number one concern of Americans.
We just had the largest increase in violent crime in our nation’s history per the US Department of Justice’s most recent official data released in 2023, 44 percent with huge increases for groups.
By my estimation, approximately 75,000,000 Americans were victimized in 2022 including violent and property crimes, cybercrime, and identity theft. It’s safe to suggest that tens of millions of Americans are victimized by crime every year.
If you combine violent and property crime with cybercrime and identity theft, most American households may be victimized by crime yearly.
Cybercrimes are more costly than street crimes and cause immense emotional distress. Per the FBI, cybercrime almost doubled from 2019 to 2023 with 37 billion in losses while recognizing that most are not reported.
Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the USDOJ, 23 million persons were victims of identity theft during the prior 12 months in 2023 costing 15.1 billion dollars. This is numerically far more than the 4 million victims from 2019 to 2023 identified by the FBI for overall cybercrimes. The 23 million crime identity theft victims are also far more than the 14 million general crime victims identified by the FBI in 2022.
Retail “shrinkage” (losses due to crime) is 112 billion dollars and rising rapidly. Stores are closing creating hardships and job losses.
Juvenile crime seems to be exploding in some cities. Although no data focuses solely on the extent of juvenile crime, juveniles now have the highest age numbers, by far, for homicides, sex offenses, and robberies.
Americans Define Crime Broadly-It’s More Than Violent Or Property Crime
So if you take the largest increase in violent crime in our nation’s history per the USDOJ’s latest official report and combine it with the FBI’s new analysis suggesting that cyber crimes have almost doubled (2019-2023) and reports from cities that juvenile crime is dramatically increasing and retail thefts are exploding with stores closing, you get an indication as to why Americans list crime as a top priority.
People who downplay the concerns of Americans about crime probably are uncomfortable with the combination of violent and property crimes with cyber crimes and identity theft, but there doesn’t seem to be a question that cybercrimes are far more costly than street crimes and produce an immense sense of discomfort (fear?) for the victims, especially for the elderly (and their families) who bear the brunt of so many frauds.
Is There A Counterpoint?
First, understand that the vast majority of violent and property crimes are not reported to law enforcement. 42 percent of violent crimes are reported. 32 percent of property crimes are reported and when you consider that approximately 80 percent of what we call crimes are property events, that means that 32 percent of the 80 percent are brought to the attention of law enforcement. Crime reporting is dramatically less for cybercrimes and juvenile crimes.
So what do the crimes reported to law enforcement say?
2023-Crime Is Down-FBI Findings-Full-Year Preliminary Data
We’ll start with 2023 preliminary-unofficial statistics for 2023 because that’s what’s getting most of the attention.
Preliminary full-year crime statistics from the FBI in 2023 state that there were decreases in all crime categories except vehicle theft.
Crimes for metropolitan areas “and” nonmetropolitan areas were offered.
Overall, violent crime fell by 5.7 percent. Murder decreased by 13.2 percent. Aggravated Assaults went down by 4.8 percent. The numbers were offered in March of 2024.
However-For Metropolitan Areas
Except for homicides and rapes, (tiny numbers compared to overall violent crimes) most of the decreases in metropolitan areas (where the vast majority of Americans live) are rather small. Robberies increased. Motor vehicle theft grew substantially.
Aggravated assaults (the vast majority of measured violent crimes) decreased by 1.7 percent which influenced a small decrease in overall violence at 3.1 percent (almost flat). Decreases in property crimes were also much lower in metropolitan areas.
The full-year “official” FBI report for 2023 will be released in the Fall of 2024.
Conclusions
There are times when major media sources ask “experts” why Americans are so clueless about their record fear of crime (per Gallup) that it causes me to wonder about their credibility.
Yes, the preliminary-unofficial statistics from the FBI suggest decreases for 2023 “but” most of those reductions are happening in nonmetropolitan areas; most Americans live in cities and their surrounding counties.
Yes, homicides are down 13 percent which is huge. The last big decrease in murders happened in 1996, 10.6 percent. Per analyst Jeff Asher, homicides are continuing to decrease in 2024. Criminologically speaking, homicides have always been an indication of overall violence but that connection seems to be lessening.
But homicides have been at record highs for recent years per FBI numbers, and the Major Cities Chiefs Association tells us that homicides increased 50 percent and aggravated assaults increased by 36 percent (2019-2023) in 70 cities so it was inevitable that homicides would decrease. It’s almost impossible for cities to sustain increases that high; they would become unlivable.
There’s more than enough data to justify American’s fear of crime or perceptions of crime. I understand that fear is based more on signs of disorder or news coverage but there’s enough data to justify their concerns.
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