Are Historic Declines In Offender Accountability-Correctional Numbers Connected To Rising Violence?

Highlights

The incarcerated population fell to its lowest level since 2003.

The adult probation rate is at its lowest point in 35 years.

Multiple sources state that violence is mostly impacting low-income minority communities, so the result of progressive policies to end racially disproportionate correctional systems is a ton of violence for minority neighborhoods?

Is there a connection between historic lows for the correctional population and growing violence?

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There are endless reasons offered as to why we have exploding violence and fear of crime. The criminological community will point to the availability of firearms or the pandemic or economic considerations as the reasons which all seem a bit silly because violence started increasing five years before the pandemic (2015) and the economy is begging people to take available jobs. There are 390 million firearms in the US, approximately the same number during earlier years of decreasing violence.

I spent hundreds of hours interviewing criminal offenders for radio and television shows. I spent several hours with well over a hundred offenders charged with violent crimes gaining their perspectives for a state crime summit. When I left law enforcement and graduated from college, I had a job visiting prisons picking people for a rehabilitation program. There were many other encounters.

What I learned from these conversations was that their biggest fear was being caught and incarcerated or supervised by the justice system through parole and probation.

Cynics tell me that a prison sentence doesn’t concern criminals. Bull-hockey. I spent thousands of hours in prisons and they ain’t pleasant places. Done properly, parole and probation supervision can create significant restrictions and accountability. Some readers may disagree with me but they haven’t had the experience of being whisked from their homes by police or correctional officers for a violation.

For a wide variety of reasons ranging from child abuse and neglect to mental health and substance abuse problems to having a chip on their shoulders the size of Montana, being “controlled” by the justice system is their biggest concern. The great majority of offenders have major issues with authority principally related to child abuse at home.

Eliminate accountability or lessen that fear of the justice system and you get more crime.

Pew-Overview Of Corrections

Community supervision, most commonly probation and parole, is a key component of correctional systems in every state and involves more people than are serving prison or jail sentences. At the end of 2020, almost 3.9 million Americans—or 1 in 66 adults—were on probation or parole in the U.S., compared with nearly 1.8 million in jails and state and federal prisons.

Community supervision also presents a different set of challenges for policymakers and for the people affected by it than does incarceration. Individuals on probation and parole must earn a living, pay for housing, and care for their families, all while also attending to their own behavioral health needs. And, often, they must manage these responsibilities within the constraints of restrictive supervision rules. Failure to comply with these requirements can mean a return to incarceration, a process that in many states is a leading driver of prison admissions.

Pew

The Probation Rate Is At Its Lowest Point In 35 Years

In 2020, the number of people on probation decreased from 3,330,200 to 3,053,700 (down 8.3%), the largest annual decline since the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) began the probation collection in 1980.

During 2020, the probation population decreased in 42 states, the District of Columbia, and the U.S. federal system and increased in 7 states.

The adult probation rate (1,186 per 100,000 adult U.S. residents) at yearend 2020 was at its lowest point in 35 years.

From yearend 2005 to yearend 2020, the total adult community supervision population decreased 21%, from 4,946,600 to 3,890,400. This was the first time the community supervision population dropped below 4 million since 1997.

The overall decrease from 2005 to 2020 was due to a 1.1 million (26.6%) decline in adults on probation. The community supervision population has declined each year since 2007, when it peaked at 5,115,500. The probation population declined for the thirteenth consecutive year since peaking in 2007.

Since 2005, the U.S. parole population has increased by nearly 10%, which means that more people are being released from prison.

Chart-Probation

If you look at the chart below, you will discover that rates of successful completions are up, incarcerations are down and unsatisfactory exits have plummeted. Either we have a new breed of cooperative-successful offenders or state justice systems are lessening their requirements due to the cost of corrections or criminal justice reform.

Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics: Within 3 years 43% of state felons on probation were rearrested for a felony. Half of the arrests were for a violent crime (murder, rape, robbery, or aggravated assault) or a drug offense.

Results showed that within 3 years of sentencing, 62 percent either had a disciplinary hearing for violating a condition of their probation or were arrested for another felony.

If the recidivism data above is correct, then why are so many probationers (per the chart) suddenly doing so well?

Bureau Of Justice Statistics

Overall Correctional Population-Lowest Level In The Last Two Decades.

The adult correctional system includes persons incarcerated in prisons and jails and persons supervised in the community on probation and parole.

In 2019, the number of persons supervised by U.S. adult correctional systems (6,344,000) decreased (down 65,200 persons) for the twelfth consecutive year.

Since 2009, the correctional population decreased by 12.4% (down 895,200 persons), an average of 1.3% annually.

At year-end 2019, about 2,480 per 100,000 adult U.S. residents were under correctional supervision, the lowest rate since 1991.

By the end of 2019, the community supervision population had dropped to 4,357,700, its lowest level in the last two decades.

In 2019, the incarcerated population fell to 2,086,600, its lowest level since 2003.

The decline in the incarcerated population during 2019 was primarily due to a decrease in the prison population (down 33,600).

From 2009 to 2019, the parole population grew by 6.6% and was the only correctional population with an overall increase during that period, which means that more inmates were released to the community.

Bureau Of Justice Statistics.

Conclusions

There will forever be endless disagreements regarding incarceration and community supervision. EVERY governor in America has asked their correctional administrators to lessen their financial burdens on state revenues which leads to greater leniency.

Remember that, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics and the US Sentencing Commission, the great majority of people who violate community supervision do so because of new crimes, not technical violations.

No, not every offender needs to be incarcerated. Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, most convicted of felonies do not go to prison.

No, the rules of community supervision don’t need to be harsh for everyone. While the sanctions will be different for serious-repeat offenders, those compliant should be released from supervision after one year. First-time offenders with minor crimes should be placed on an administrative caseload with minimal requirements. The idea is to free overburdened parole and probation agents for serious offenders.

Yes, we should support programs for offenders especially as they apply to mental health via cognitive behavioral therapy (per data, the only successful treatment program). But the overwhelming number of offenders (especially released inmates) commit more crimes.

Bail reform and progressive prosecutors refusing to charge people for serious crimes add to the complexity.

Progressives bemoan the fact that America has one of the highest rates of incarceration in the world and some insist that we have the highest rate while ignoring totalitarian regimes holding millions of people (i.e., China). Others believe that the impact of the justice system disproportionately impacts minorities.

Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the great majority of state inmates are serving time for a violent crime. The percentages for violence increases if you include past crimes. The average time served for a violent crime is less than three years.

The overwhelming number of inmates have multiple arrests and incarcerations. Violent offenders and felons count for an increasing number of those on community supervision.

Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, violence started to increase nationally in 2015 (2014 for some observers). Serious violence also increased.

We now have an explosion of violence and fear of crime. Firearm and security sales are skyrocketing. People are fleeing cities. It’s urban minorities who are victimized most often. Nationwide, MoneyGeek found the total cost of crime in the U.S. topped $200 billion in 2020.

Progressives are passionate that prisons and community supervision are evil and/or racist. Many including Candidate Biden have pledged a 50 percent reduction in the rate of incarceration.

The flip side of that argument is decaying cities where violence affects everything from mental health to economic development to school scores to jobs to places to shop. People are leaving cities because of crime.

Multiple sources state that violence is mostly impacting low-income minority communities, so the result of progressive policies to end racially disproportionate correctional systems is a ton of violence for minority neighborhoods?

Both sides claim to have the higher moral ground.

I’ll let you decide who is right.