Highlights
Are law enforcement staffing levels affecting reported crime?
Are there additional reasons for reduced reported crime via the FBI?
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention and Statistics for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public Affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former police officer. Retired federal senior spokesperson.
Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Produced successful state anti-crime media campaigns.
Thirty-five years of directing award-winning (50+) public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed thousands of times by every national news outlet, often with a focus on crime statistics and research. Created the first state and federal podcasting series. Produced a unique and emulated style of government proactive public relations.
Certificate of Advanced Study-The Johns Hopkins University.
Author of ”Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization” available at Amazon and additional booksellers.
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Note: I use slightly rearranged verbiage for quotes.
Note: Crime and other statistics for this article are available at Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S.
Article
The trendlines for crimes reported to law enforcement are down with a predicted 3.5 percent decrease in violent crime in 2023. Yet many of my police readers insist that crimes are not being counted and violence remains a significant problem in many cities.
Are dynamics within police agencies contributing to less crime being reported?
The consistent message from cops is that their agencies are severely understaffed thus available personpower greatly affects response times and crime reporting. Many in law enforcement suggest that there is far more crime than reported.
It’s evident that the great majority of what we call crime is not brought to the attention of authorities. Per comments, there are officers not recording reported crimes for a variety of reasons.
Pittsburg
PITTSBURGH (KDKA) – The president of the Pittsburgh police union said that changes in staffing and a focus on downtown have left the department in “shambles.”
Pittsburgh Fraternal Order of Police President Bob Swartzwelder accused Pittsburgh Police Chief Larry Scirotto of misleading the public about how many officers are actually working, calling the levels “dangerously low” and that he wanted to share his concerns in writing because “it seemed [prior] discussions were falling of deaf ears.”
Background-The Largest Increase in Violent Crime In The Nation’s History
Crimes reported to law enforcement have dropped in 2023 and 2024. As of this writing, these are preliminary reports from the FBI. Full or official reports for 2023 will be released soon.
As of this writing, the last official report from the US Department of Justice states that we just had the largest increase in violent crime in the nation’s history via the National Crime Victimization Survey from the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice. It was released in 2023 for the calendar year 2022. The next full report for 2023 will be offered within weeks.
The National Crime Victimization Survey was created over 50 years ago by the US Department of Justice as a vast improvement over crimes reported to law enforcement because the overwhelming majority of crime is not brought to the attention of police agencies.
Are Police Agencies Really “In Shambles” Regarding Staffing And Crime Reporting?
Two US Department of Justice agencies say that there is a “crisis” in police staffing. There are hundreds of media articles stating that law enforcement agencies are struggling with personpower.
However, there are no definitive studies showing police shortages by location. There are suggestions that it’s large and medium-sized cities (where most crime occurs) that are experiencing the brunt of the problem.
Reported Crime
Reported crime could be dropping thus this article could stop here. There are significant reductions for the first quarter of 2024 per the FBI and modest reductions (especially in urban areas) for all of 2023 per preliminary FBI reports.
Are these findings an accurate picture of total crime?
Approximately 40 percent of violent crime is reported and roughly 30 percent of property crime is reported per the Bureau Of Justice Statistics. Per other USDOJ reports, about 25 percent of juvenile crime is reported. Roughly 7 percent of identity theft is reported to law enforcement.
The Major City Chiefs Association suggests that reported violent crime decreased by six percent for the first half of 2024. But considering that, per the USDOJ, about 60 percent of violent crimes go unreported, that six percent reduction “could” be a six percent increase. Statistically speaking, it’s more than possible because most criminal activity is never brought to the attention of the police.
Homicides are down considerably but they increased anywhere from 30 percent (nationally) to 50 percent (in cities) from 2019 to 2022. A drop in murders was inevitable.
Could There Be Other Reasons For The Decline In Reported Crime?
There are endless reasons for the problems associated with reported crimes:
Police officers have immense discretion as to filing a crime report. Without a report being filed, there is no crime reported.
Nationwide, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we have lost thousands of police officers and employees. There are cities like Oakland, CA that are offering approximately 35 officers a shift for a major city. Philadelphia reports that they are over a thousand police officers down from authorized levels.
Police agencies and officers are not going to make crime report writing a priority when cities are down that much.
There are examples of cities where police staffing is so low that it’s taking over an hour for officers to show up at a reported crime scene. Complaining victims are not willing to wait that long thus no crime is reported.
Arrests and crimes solved have plummeted over multiple years. A recent analysis of unsolved crimes around the U.S. found that in 2022, 63% of violent crimes reported to law enforcement went unsolved. In Ohio, seven out of 10 violent crimes went unsolved, and in Columbus, 85% weren’t solved.
Police officers complain that some cities are not prosecuting a wide array of offenders (i.e., shoplifters, thieves, juveniles, drug dealers, and many more) so why should they risk their lives making arrests (and filing reports) that will not be prosecuted?
Police officers state that demonstrations regarding police use of force sent a message that cops need to back off of a wide variety of proactive police strategies. Per Pew, the critics succeeded. Police agencies and officers stopped or greatly reduced traditional policing practices, like taking crime reports.
Because of the controversy regarding police use of force or mistrust of the police, it’s more than possible that some citizens stopped reporting crimes.
Police agencies reporting crime statistics is voluntary in the US (it’s mandatory in Canada where crime increased). Thousands of police agencies do not report their crimes to the FBI but the majority do.
The transition of the FBI’s relatively new record-keeping system (The National Incident-Based Reporting System) records multiple crimes instead of one primary crime possibly leading police agencies to downplay crime reporting.
Officials throughout the justice system suggest that more crime reporting could overwhelm an already stressed capacity to process cases.
Examples Of Police Agency Staffing Dysfunction
HOUSTON (Associated Press) — A breakdown in communication, a lack of training, inconsistent protocols and an ineffective records management system were some of the reasons that led to Houston police dropping more than 268,000 cases over nearly the past decade, a committee said Wednesday.
The cases, whose existence was made public earlier this year, were never submitted for investigation as officers assigned them an internal code that cited a lack of available personnel. Among these cases were more than 4,000 sexual assault cases and at least two homicides.
The Daily Express (UK)–Yes, this is an international issue. The police now routinely ignore most of the crime that impacts people. Shoplifting, for example, is becoming an epidemic. Last year 16.7 million incidents were recorded – more than double the 2022 figure. There were 1,300 violent incidents every day, a rise of 50% from 870 the year before, leading to 8,800 injuries over the year. In this dreadful situation, some have given up reporting crime. In 2021 Manchester failed even to record 80,000 crimes – a fifth of the total.
Portland–The Organian–Over the last month, Portland police leaders have moved to disband a unit that investigated reports of burglaries, identity theft, embezzlement and organized retail crime. The bureau has struggled with staffing in recent years.
San Francisco–Law enforcement has taken hours to respond to petty crimes at Bayside, if they respond at all, Pesusic said. During two of the three break-ins the business faced over the past two years, he said police officers took over eight hours to arrive on the scene. And the market’s employees have stopped reporting shoplifting incidents, which Pesusic said occur at least 5-6 times a week, and sometimes up to five times in one day. But Pesusic said market employees have stopped reporting many crimes.
“We don’t even call 911 anymore because they don’t respond,” Pesusic said. “This isn’t fun, playing security-slash-police officer, trying to hold on to my inventory.”
There are additional examples.
Conclusions
Reported crime “may” be dropping in the US and, if so, it’s good news. The trend lines are encouraging. The problem is that no one can state definitively that crime is down because of unreported crime and other factors. FBI crime reports are speculations and approximations, not conclusions.
I and others writing about crime get messages from cops that they do not have the incentives or time to record reported crimes. The primary mantra in policing is (and always has been) to be available for major incidents. If true, that leaves little time for report writing, especially if there’s no point (i.e., lack of prosecution).
We within the justice system understand that reported crime is not a good indicator of total crime and that the National Crime Victimization Survey (designed to capture most crime) just reported the largest increase in violent crime in the nation’s history in 2023.
Fear of crime is at record levels per Gallup. Crime is a top election priority per Pew. Pew suggests that crime news leads all other categories of local media coverage except for the weather. Research suggests that crime is the number one reason for people moving.
Crime seems to be increasing in Canada, Great Britain, and Australia. Traditionally, crime rises and falls somewhat in unison within Western industrialized countries. Mexican and Central-South American cities have very high rates of crime. The US is surrounded by rising crime.
No one can definitively say that the preliminary FBI reductions in crime for 2023 and 2024 are invalid; some of the issues noted above have been with us for decades. However, a fair analysis from multiple sources suggests that there are reasons to question FBI crime reductions that may be based on many factors other than less crime.
It also depends on baseline data. The independent public policy group, the Coalition for Law, Order, and Safety (CLOS), argues that according to their analysis, violent crime is up across 66 major cities. CLOS’s January to June 2019 data for that same period in 2024 suggests there was a 9.6 percent increase in total violent crime, with aggravated assault up nearly 25 percent and murder up by 6.4 percent.
The USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey with its record increase in violent crime is far more accurate than compilations of reported crime, yet it’s ignored.
Why?
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