Highlights
The majority of Americans trust those running law enforcement agencies.
So police organizations are emulating their critics as to stretching truth? Exactly what did you expect?
The New Republic can hold their noses at the gruff raised by pro-police groups while ignoring the odor raised by their opposition but it won’t work.
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of directing award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of criminology and public affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University. Former police officer. Aspiring drummer.
Editorial
The New Republic offered an article suggesting that the explanations for rising crime are simplistic and oversold by pro-police organizations. The narratives are said to endanger police reform.
The truth is that no one can provide a universal theory as to rising or lowering rates of crime.
We had over two decades of vast reductions in crime before 2015 based on the National Crime Victimization Survey from the Bureau of Justice Statistics and crimes reported to law enforcement offered by the FBI. No one was able to offer precise reasons. We simply don’t know why crime rates dropped for so long, US Crime Rates.
Conversely, we simply don’t know with certainty why violence is skyrocketing.
Filling The Void
To fill the void, there are endless commentators with impressive credentials who will tell you that it’s the justice system either being too aggressive or not aggressive enough. More examples of conflicting ideologies would fill books.
I just wrote an article stating that progressives are sending the wrong messages to criminals and encouraging crime and where I believe in my heart that my hypothesis is correct, without generating data, I can’t prove it, Sending The Wrong Messages.
But I’ll propose a question, who do you think the public trusts and believes when it comes to crime, the endless progressive organizations or those representing law enforcement?
I read or scan everything that pops up about crime and the justice system in multiple feeds daily (including my own website). Ninety percent of the discussion about crime comes from progressive organizations or publications. In my decades in the justice system at the highest levels, most of what they propose or report on is ignored.
The American public trusts those running law enforcement and related agencies. Criminological theories and progressive thoughts are routinely questioned because they lack credibility or a research base (i.e., proposing social programs as a solution for violence).
Outright Lies
The author implies that law enforcement organizations such as the Fraternal Order Of Police are trivializing reasons for the growth in violence while focusing on defunding and suggesting that growth in violence hinges on low baselines in some cities (i.e., three to twenty-seven homicides in Portland).
In some ways, the New Republic author is correct. Everything today is political. Everyone’s an advocate which gives license for stretching the truth.
I mistrust the politics of advocacy while noting it’s a double edge sword. When I represented national and state law enforcement and criminal justice organizations as a senior spokesperson, progressive advocates would do anything and say anything to the media to advance their cause.
Outright lies were common. I spent a lot of time proving advocates wrong by immediately offering both access and reliable data to refute their agendas.
Those representing and advocating for law enforcement learned their lessons well from their opposition and even I flinch at some of the statements made. We used to be stoic and sit on the sidelines. No more.
But Progressives Have Valid Points
Police defunding (actually, percentage decreases) is limited to a very small number of jurisdictions. The overwhelming number of police agencies haven’t been affected. Several “defunded” agencies are having their budgets restored or enhanced.
Blaming the increases on Democratic mayors is simply unfair unless one can prove that republican mayors could magically fix the conditions that cause violence. Most offenders have mental health and substance abuse issues, Mental Health And Crime. How Republican mayors can quickly fix this is beyond my comprehension.
You can’t lock up everybody. Hell, you can’t lock up most; we don’t have the capacity. There are issues in criminal justice reform that need discussion. Lord knows, we in the justice system are far from infallible. There are items from progressives that should be considered that many in law enforcement have been calling for like sending mental health specialists to mental health calls.
There are polls indicating that the majority of Americans back police reform and support for being tough on crime is waning, What The Public Thinks.
Growing Anger
But there is growing anger over the increases in violence (per record increases in fear of crime) and data suggesting that Americans are buying every firearm and security device available.
Advocates calling for justice reform “are” sending messages telling criminal offenders that law enforcement is now humbled and less able or willing to respond and that consequences for criminality are fewer and less onerous, Sending The Wrong Messages.
If cops are backing off and not being proactive in cities, and if proactivity has a research base suggesting that it reduces crime, then it stands to reason that criminals are taking advantage of the situation, Proactive Policing.
There’s a large base of research on opportunity offenders and crime indicating that criminals are taking advantage of easy options and vulnerable victims (i.e., the disabled have much higher rates of crime).
It’s Only Police Groups Complaining About Violent Crime?
But to suggest that it’s cops and their supporters solely opining about violent crime is disingenuous. Examples:
“Since the Freddie Gray situation, even if you call the police and give a description, they can’t touch the criminals,” the business owner said. “They know they’re untouchable. That’s the key,” Washington Post.
“This is a killing field.” “Don’t give up on Baltimore,” Mayor Catherine E. Pugh told officers gathered for a roll call in the Southern District police station last week, Washington Post.
Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot said it “feels like we’re losing the streets” after another violent summer weekend that saw 32 people shot and nine people killed,” the Chicago Sun-Times reports.
Maybe police organizations “are” overplaying their hand, but there are mayors, community and business organizations and many others incessantly complaining about increasing violence. Some are suggesting that it’s cities themselves who are in danger of losing their populations and prestige.
So the New Republic can hold their noses at the gruff raised by pro-police groups while ignoring the odor raised by their opposition but it won’t work.
Much of the criticism of law enforcement is disproven by data, Misinformation.
Progressives painting all cops as brutal or arguing that every arrest must be released without bail or conditions or supervision or refusing to prosecute crimes or proposing totally unproven social work efforts as an answer for violence is criminologicaly, fundamentally and morally wrong.
So you will forgive me if I opine that the New Republic author is engaging in the same spin as pro-police groups.
Violence Up Significantly
Progressives have been arguing for years that “we have never lived in safer times” and that the crime problem is vastly overblown. I was called a racist in a Reddit criminology forum by suggesting that violence was increasing. Moderators did nothing.
We have a 28 percent increase in all violent crime since 2015 per the National Crime Survey, a tripling of violent crime per Gallup, endless media reports of vastly increasing urban violence after the lockdowns, a rise in homicides and aggravated assaults in 2019 and 2020 per the Major Cities Chiefs Association, a considerable and recent rise in homicides, aggravated assaults and robberies after the lockdowns by the University of Missouri, and considerable increases in homicides and violence by COVID and Crime.
Per FBI preliminary statistics for all of 2020, there was a 25 percent increase in homicides, overall violent crime increased by 3.3 percent, and aggravated assaults increased by 10.5 percent, Violent Crime Increases in 2020.
Major American cities saw a 33% increase in homicides last year as a pandemic swept across the country, millions of people joined protests against racial injustice and police brutality, and the economy collapsed under the weight of the pandemic — a crime surge that has continued into the first quarter of this year, Rising Urban Homicides-CNN.
Firearm and security sales are going through the roof. Fear of crime is at an all-time high. People are leaving cities, US Crime Rates.
Conclusions
As stated, advocates and publications on both sides stretch the truth. We have data indicating that cops remain one of the most respected organizations in America. We have research suggesting that proactive policing works. Crime and fear statistics are frighteningly bad.
And considering that we are losing cops (per a multitude of media reports) and that police recruitment is down 63 percent per the police Executive Research Forum, we seem to be in a significant conundrum.
So police organizations are emulating their critics as to stretching truth? Exactly what did you expect?
There are a ton of mistakes and purposeful acts on the side of the justice system that need addressing. We are not without fault. We have histories to atone for.
But who does the average American, regardless of race, ethnic background, income or political affiliation trust and believe? By and large, it’s cops, not protestors, not advocates, not the tiny number of progressive prosecutors, not anyone else.
Regardless of their mistakes or history or select acts of brutality, when crime goes up, it’s law enforcement that the public turns towards for answers and relief. This is reflected in Democratic strategists blaming Congressional and state losses on their positions on crime and articles suggesting that Republicans may take back Congress based on the crime issue, Police Issues.
The great majority of all Americans believe that the majority of cops are basically good and decent people who are willing to risk their lives for society’s well-being, Public Confidence.
When a mass shooting or lost child or violent crime wave hits, we call the cops. Progressives sit it out in the safety of their suburban homes.
See More
See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.
Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.
US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.
National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.
An Overview Of Data On Mental Health at Mental Health And Crime.
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