Highlights
African Americans, Latinos, and Asian Americans plus others are very concerned about high rates of violence.
There is a national movement to release half of all prison inmates supported by candidate Biden. Per USDOJ research, most of these are violent offenders who will return to distressed communities and reoffend again.
Is this in the best interest of our fellow citizens suffering from violent crime?
Author
Note
This is the second in a series of articles examining US Department of Justice policies pertaining to reduced correctional spending and the release of mostly violent prison inmates. See Crime in America for additional articles.
Opinion
There’s a fundamental question that needs to be asked, are more violent offenders in the best interest of people living in or near high crime communities?
For many communities, crime and violence are destructive to the point of almost being indescribable. No one will invest in affected communities. Jobs and stores disappear. Community decay is obvious. School scores decline. Mental health concerns are so bad that PTSD is common. Residents report that seeing or experiencing violence is a frequent experience.
Within this context, the US Department of Justice states that it wants to either release or defer (i.e., alternatives to incarceration) people from prison. Candidate Biden said he wants to reduce the prison population by 50 percent. He hasn’t retracted his campaign pledge. Per USDOJ data, most will be violent offenders.
Background: Race And Crime
There’s approximate equality in violent criminal victimization per the Bureau of Justice Statistics. In 2020, the violent victimization rate was 17.5 for Blacks, 16.2 for Whites, and 15.9 for Hispanics.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, Black males accounted for 34% of the total male prison population, White males 29%, and Hispanic males 24%. The 2020 imprisonment rate for Black U.S. residents showed a 37% decrease from 2010.
Traditionally, low-income communities regardless of demographics have much higher rates of crime and violence.
Fixing Perceived Racial Disparities Or Harming People Of Color?
The US Department of Justice is funding projects suggesting that states do more to reduce incarceration and release or defer mostly violent inmates.
The overwhelming percent of state prisoners are either serving time for a violent crime or have a violent history. Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the rate of recidivism (rearrests and incarceration after release from prison) is overwhelming.
All of this surrounds candidate Biden’s pledge to cut the US prison population in half and now we have the Department of Justice proclaiming that fewer offenders in prison is a goal.
DOJ’s December 22 press release calls for reduced incarceration and addressing long-standing racial disparities. But violent crime is literally destroying urban high-crime communities.
What’s the higher moral ground, reducing perceived race inequities in the prison population or protecting or providing justice for people of color, and everyone else? When people don’t get justice from the system, they take matters into their own hands, which is tragically happening now via endless shootings in communities throughout the country.
News reports suggest that the cities where protests and or riots have occurred are being hit the hardest, Governing.Com.
It’s African American communities that are bearing the brunt of the violence, NBC News.
The rise in violent crime across the U.S. has been concentrated in “low-income communities of color” which have disproportionately experienced the impact of school closures and reductions in basic services during the pandemic, according to a study by the University of California-Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, The Crime Report.
There were 722 more homicides in nine U.S. cities last year, according to police data. More than 85% of the increase was in predominantly Black and Hispanic neighborhoods, The Marshall Project.
So on top of historic rising rates of violence and fear and the fact that some high crime communities are being destroyed, the Biden administration wants to unleash millions of new crimes against the public by releasing or deferring violent criminals?
42% Of Black Adults Say Crime Is A Major Problem (edited for brevity)
Some 43% of urban residents now say crime is a major problem in their community, compared with 35% in 2018.
Perceptions of these problems differ by race and ethnicity. For example, 42% of Black adults say crime is a major problem in their community, compared with 30% of Hispanic adults, 24% of Asian adults and 17% of White adults.
In urban areas, where the issues included in the survey tend to be seen as more of a problem than in other community types, Black adults are more likely than their White and Hispanic counterparts to see drug addiction, crime and racism as major problems in their communities.
Lower-income adults in urban areas are even more likely to see drug addiction (59%) and crime (51%) as major problems. This is significantly more than the shares of lower-income adults in suburban and rural areas.
Needless to say, Pew addressed “major” problems. If we included “problems” with crime and violence, the percentage would be much higher.
Latinos And Violent Crime
Latinos say crime and gun violence is their number two concern — behind COVID-19 and before immigration, social justice or voting rights — in our inaugural Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll in partnership with Noticias Telemundo.
Why it matters: This finding and others in our poll could be warning signs for President Biden and his party next year, even as respondents by a two-to-one margin prefer generic Democratic midterm candidates over Republicans.
Asian Americans
About eight in ten Asian Americans say violence against them is increasing in the U.S., an April survey found.
Sixty-One Percent Say Violent Crime Is A Very Big Problem
Americans’ attitudes about police funding in their own community shifted in 2021. Sixty-one percent of Americans also said violent crime was a very big problem—up 20 percentage points from June 2020.
In addition to the rise in support for increased funding, support for reducing police spending has fallen significantly, down from 25% in June 2020 to 15% today.
Crime A National Concern
As crime rates continue to soar across the country, a new Fox Business survey finds almost 8 in 10 registered voters (77 percent) are “extremely” or “very” concerned about the surge.
The only issue more pressing is inflation (84 percent “extremely” or “very” concerned).
USDOJ Press Release (edited for brevity)
The Department of Justice’s Office of Justice Programs today announced awards totaling over $38 million to advance reforms in the criminal and juvenile justice systems. Funding will support evidence-based approaches designed to reduce crime and incarceration (emphasis added) and ensure the fairness of justice system operations, as well as research to broaden the base of knowledge about effective pretrial strategies and practices for reducing racial and ethnic disparities in the justice system.
In 2020, the number of people held in state and federal prisons fell by 15%, to just over 1.2 million, and the jail population decreased by 25% between mid-year 2019 and mid-year 2020. Yet the U.S. continues to imprison more people, and at higher rates, than any other country in the world, with people of color disproportionately subjected to correctional sanctions. It is estimated that one in three Black men are incarcerated in their lifetimes.
The grants announced today will support several programs aimed at improving public safety while reducing incarceration (emphasis added) and addressing long-standing racial disparities. Among other programs, funding will support the Justice Reinvestment Initiative, an effort led by OJP’s Bureau of Justice Assistance and introduced in two-dozen states that has helped to lower prison populations (emphasis added).
What Candidate Biden Said About Cutting The Prison Population In Half-Buzzfeed-ACLU
“Would you commit to cutting incarceration by 50%?” Albert asks Biden. “More than that. We can do it more than that,” he responds.
Last month in Concord, New Hampshire, another self-identified ACLU voter asked if Biden would “commit to cutting the prison population overall, and specifically the federal prison population, in half” — a slightly different wording. Biden responded at length about criminal justice policy before telling the woman that he would not commit to reducing the prison population by any percentage target, BuzzFeed.
It’s interesting that per an ACLU article, “This week, Joe Biden also agreed, telling an ACLU volunteer that he would, in fact, commit to reducing incarceration in half and that he’s put together a plan that will go further than 50 percent.”
This quote came after his assertion that he would not commit to a percentage cut. Thus, after taking time to think it over, Biden is still committed to a 50 percent (or more) cut in the prison population, ACLU.
Regardless of how Mr. Biden cuts the US correctional population, a 50 percent reduction has real implications for crime, especially recidivism.
If you are going to be that assertive (“More than that. We can do it more than that”) cutting the US correctional population seems to be a Biden priority.
Now, through President Biden’s Department of Justice, do we have “confirmation” that he’s proceeding to significantly cut corrections?
Impact on Public Safety-Recidivism
Recidivism is based on those released from prison who are arrested, convicted or incarcerated once again.
The most common understanding of recidivism is based on state data from the US Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, stating that two-thirds (68 percent) of prisoners released were arrested for a new crime within three years of release from prison, and three-quarters (77 percent) were arrested within five years. Most were incarcerated again. Most had violent charges.
Recidivism-Ten Years After Release From Prison-Bureau Of Justice Statistics
82% were arrested at least once during the 10 years following release.
Prisoners released had a median of nine prior arrests and five prior convictions in their criminal history.
40% of persons released from prison were arrested for a violent offense.
An estimated 2.2 million arrests occurred among the approximately 409,300 persons released from prison across 24 states in 2008.
About 61% of prisoners released in 2008 returned to prison within 10 years for a parole or probation violation or a new sentence.
58 Percent Are “Currently” Serving Sentences For Violent Crimes
Fifty-eight percent of state male offenders are “currently” serving sentences for violent crimes, Bureau Of Justice Statistics. The percentage would be much higher if criminal history was included, Prisoners Released And New Crimes.
Number Mr. Biden Wants Released
If Mr. Biden has his way, 700,000 mostly violent offenders will be released from prison “or” people convicted would be processed through alternatives to prison (deferral). USDOJ data documents five to ten previous criminal convictions (and scores of arrests) for many prison inmates beyond the current charge. 700,000 mostly violent offenders mean that millions of additional people will become victims of crime.
You can’t cut the US prison population substantially without releasing multi-repeat violent offenders from prison or by putting repeat violent convictions on probation or some other form of alternatives.
Poll Numbers
President Biden’s poll numbers when it comes to crime are crashing. Violent crime, especially urban violent crime, increased substantially for 2020-2021 per the FBI and Gallup. Fear of crime is at an all-time high.
After the election, the president-elect suggested that it was the Democrat’s criticism of law enforcement that hurt them in local and state and Congressional races; “That’s how they beat the living hell out of us across the country…”.
About 36% of Americans support Biden’s handling of crimes, according to a ABC/Ipsos poll. The percentage is down from an October ABC/Ipsos poll, which found 43% of people approved of Biden’s handling of crime. There are predictions (from Democrats) of massive losses during the upcoming midterm elections
Regardless of the President’s observations or plummeting poll numbers on crime, there are national organizations pumping millions of dollars into progressive crime policies. They are demanding change. They really want a 50 percent reduction in the prison population.
Conclusions
I assume that President Biden is trying to placate the progressives who got him elected through the December 22 press release promising reduced incarceration. There are endless Democratic political pundits like James Carville who called the defund the police movement “lunacy.” The same applies to any effort to defund corrections and releasing or deferring multi-repeat violent criminal offenders. The public would revolt.
That’s why the Department of Justice issued the release on December 22 at 1:00 p.m. right before Christmas in the middle of a rising pandemic; they wanted as little publicity as possible. Compare this release from the Attorney General on December 27 announcing 1.6 billion dollars in anti-crime grants that got considerable national news. This is on top of cities increasing their police budgets by $450 million.
If there are racial disparities as to those convicted and incarcerated, they can be understood by comparing current convictions and criminal histories with race or ethnicity. If a higher rate of incarceration is based on race or ethnicity and not charges and criminal history, the data exists to document this. Are disparities based on color or criminal history or the severity of crimes? To the Department of Justice, I ask why hasn’t that been done? Prison disparities have been labeled racist many times. It’s a shame that the USDOJ doesn’t prove it.
While my emphasis is on people of color, all who live in or near distressed high-crime communities (Politico) are literally being shattered by violent crime; documented by data showing people leaving their neighborhoods. That’s not to suggest that all prison releases will reoffend. I’ve interviewed hundreds of successful offenders who are doing well. They should be encouraged and supported.
Progressives within the US Department of Justice and beyond believe that violent prison inmates can safely be released. There is a national movement to release half of all prison inmates. Many if not most of these mostly violent offenders will return to distressed communities. The data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics and the US Sentencing Commission is clear; they are likely to re-offend.
Is this truly in the best interest of our fellow citizens?
See More
See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.
Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.
US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.
National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.
An Overview Of Data On Mental Health at Mental Health And Crime.
The Crime in America.Net RSS feed (https://crimeinamerica.net/?feed=rss2) provides subscribers with a means to stay informed about the latest news, publications, and other announcements from the site.