Correctional Populations Fell Dramatically During Rising Violence

Highlights

Violent crime and serious violent crime began to increase by 28 percent in 2015 per the US Department of Justice.

The US had the lowest rate of correctional supervision since 1991. The incarcerated population fell to its lowest level since 2003.

Most released from prison are violent or have violent histories. There were close to two million arrests of released prisoners during a 9-year period, an average of 5 arrests per released prisoner. 83% were arrested.

Most on probation are felons.

The President pledged to cut the prison population in half during the campaign.

Author

Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.

Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of directing award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of criminology and public affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University. Former police officer. Aspiring drummer.

Author of ”Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization” available at Amazon and additional booksellers.

Article

Violent crime and serious violent crime started to increase by 28 percent in 2015 which ran concurrent with decreasing correctional populations.

What follows are federal statistics documenting the decrease in correctional populations and the rise in violent crime.

Correctional Populations In The US-Bureau of Justice Statistics-New Data

At year-end 2019, an estimated 6,344,000 persons were under the supervision of adult correctional systems in the United States, about 65,200 fewer persons than in 2018.

The adult correctional system includes persons incarcerated in prisons and jails and persons supervised in the community on probation and parole.

This was the first time since 1999 that the correctional population dropped to less than 6.4 million. The correctional population declined by 1.0% in 2019 and has declined an average of 1.3% each year since 2009.

Details

In 2019, the number of persons supervised by U.S. adult correctional systems (6,344,000) decreased (down 65,200 persons) for the twelfth consecutive year.

The 1.0% decline in the correctional population during 2019 was due to decreases in the community supervision (down 0.9%) and incarcerated (down 1.7%) populations.

Since 2009, the correctional population decreased by 12.4% (down 895,200 persons), an average of 1.3% annually.

At year-end 2019, about 2,480 per 100,000 adult U.S. residents were under correctional supervision, the lowest rate since 1991.

By the end of 2019, the community supervision population had dropped to 4,357,700, its lowest level in the last two decades.

All of the decrease in the community supervision population during 2019 was due to a decline in the probation population (down 47,100).

In 2019, the incarcerated population fell to 2,086,600, its lowest level since 2003.

The decline in the incarcerated population during 2019 was primarily due to a decrease in the prison population (down 33,600).

From 2009 to 2019, the parole population grew by 6.6% and was the only correctional population with an overall increase during that period, Bureau Of Justice Statistics.

Characteristics of Prison Inmates-Most Are Violent-Bureau Of Justice Statistics

More than half of sentenced males (58%) and more than a third of sentenced females (38%) were serving time in state prison for a violent offense. If you added criminal history, the percentage would increase considerably.

An estimated 14% of sentenced state prisoners were serving time for murder or non-negligent manslaughter (177,700), and another 13% were serving time for rape or sexual assault (162,700).

About 16% of sentenced state prisoners were serving time for a property offense (199,700), and 14% were serving time for a drug offense (176,300) at the end of 2018, Bureau Of Justice Statistics.

President Biden Pledged To Cut The Prison Population In Half

During the campaign, Mr. Biden stated that he wanted to release half of all prison inmates or reduce the US correctional population substantially through other means.

If the strategy is release, 700,000 mostly violent offenders could potentially be removed from prison. Release from prison is a priority of most (all?) correctional advocacy organizations.

Another way to reduce the prison population by half (or a substantial amount) is to dramatically change the way violent offenders are sentenced.

“Would you commit to cutting incarceration by 50%?” Albert asks Biden. “More than that. We can do it more than that,” he responds, President Pledges To Cut Prison Population

Violent Crime Started Increasing in 2015

We have a 28 percent increase in all violent crime (including simple assaults) per the National Crime Survey (2015-2019) with increases in serious violence.

We have a tripling of violent crime per Gallup, endless media reports of vastly increasing urban violence in 2020-2021 after the lockdowns and riots, a rise in homicides and aggravated assaults in 2019 and 2020 per the Major Cities Chiefs Association, a considerable and recent rise in homicides, aggravated assaults and robberies after the lockdowns by the University of Missouri, and considerable increases in homicides and violence by COVID and Crime.

Per FBI preliminary statistics for all of 2020, there was a 25 percent increase in homicides, overall violent crime increased by 3.3 percent, and aggravated assaults increased by 10.5 percent, Violent Crime Increases in 2020.

Major American cities saw a 33% increase in homicides last year as a pandemic swept across the country, millions of people joined protests against racial injustice and police brutality, and the economy collapsed under the weight of the pandemic — a crime surge that has continued into the first quarter of this year, Rising Urban Homicides-CNN.

Fear of crime is at its highest level in years. Firearm and security sales are skyrocketing. Per media accounts, people are leaving cities.

Early indications for 2021 suggest that violence continues to grow.

The focus of violent crime increases seems to be concentrated in American cities, US Crime Rates.

Recidivism Statistics From The Bureau Of Justice Statistics

During the five-year follow-up period, an estimated 1.1 million arrests occurred among the approximately 408,300 prisoners released in 2012.

During a nine-year follow-up in 2018, the 401,288 state prisoners released in 2005 had an estimated 1,994,000 arrests during the 9-year period, an average of 5 arrests per released prisoner.

Five out of six released offenders were rearrested; 83% were arrested within 9 years.

Prisoner arrests and incarcerations declined over time (2012-2017).

Massive rearrests on the part of released prisoners is indicative of a serious problem as to crime control. Police chiefs blaming repeat offenders are correct, Massive Arrests.

State Probation Arrests

Within 3 years 43% of state felons on probation were rearrested for a felony. Half of the arrests were for a violent crime (murder, rape, robbery, or aggravated assault) or a drug offense.

Results showed that within 3 years of sentencing, 62 percent either had a disciplinary hearing for violating a condition of their probation or were arrested for another felony.

In addition, within 3 years, 46 percent had been sent to prison or jail or had absconded.

Who is on probation? Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, felony cases went from 50 percent of the probation population in 2005 to 57 percent in 2015, which means that probation is handling a more challenging workload, Offender Recidivism In The US.

Federal Probation-Parole Arrests

Within 3 years, nearly twice as many offenders (35%) had been arrested at least once. And, within 5 years, approximately 2 in 5 of the offenders (43%) were arrested at least once, although the type of arrests while on supervision varied by federal and nonfederal (i.e., state and local) charges, Offender Recidivism In The US.

Conclusions

Violent crime and serious violent crime started to increase in 2015 (after a twenty-year decline) which ran concurrently with decreasing correctional populations. The declines in the correctional population predated increases in violence.

Additional releases from prisons and jails during the pandemic were common.

There is no way of “proving” that the decrease in correctional populations contributed to the increase in violent crime.

As any criminologist will tell you, correlation does not equal causation.

But recidivism (new arrests and incarcerations) are massive and it seems probable that offenders released or in the community are contributing to increased crime and violence.

As The National Institute of Justice recently observed, “One observed change over time, the researchers found, was that participants endorsed fewer beliefs about the benefits of desistance (editor’s note, stopping criminal activity) from crime and had less belief in their independent ability to control whether they would refrain from crime going forward,” National Institute Of Justice.

In other words, offenders seemed to lose faith in their ability to resist crime.

Every police chief in the country is pointing to repeat offenders as to contributing to increased violence and crime. Statistics from the federal government suggest that they are correct.

Advocates rail against the numbers incarcerated and on those on community supervision as inhumane. I’m guessing that the victims of violent crime would disagree.

But also note that I interviewed (via radio and television shows) hundreds of successful offenders released from prison who lead crime-free lives and significantly contribute to their communities and our understanding of recidivism. Most on probation have successful (although imperfect) outcomes.

We need to remember that some offenders make the decision to change. They should be supported.

See More

See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.

Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.

US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.

National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.

An Overview Of Data On Mental Health at Mental Health And Crime.

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