Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S.

Updated December 2024

New yearly data for 2023 from the FBI and the National Crime Victimization Survey have been incorporated. Preliminary crime figures from the FBI for the first six months of 2024 are included.

Extended Summations for US Crime From 2021-2024 Are On Page 4.

Brief And Extended Summations Of Crime Data By Year (2012-2023) Are On Pages 17-18.

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Overview

A comprehensive, reader-friendly overview of crime with a focus on violent crime in the United States.

I try to to respond to most user questions in one document which means that a wide variety of topics are included. 

Summations of yearly sources/links are included for FBI and National Crime Victimization Survey statistics along with other authoritative data.

Keywords: Crime, violent crime, crime rates, crime statistics, violence, crime in the United States, crime in the US, crime in America, crime research, FBI, National Crime Survey, National Crime Victimization Survey, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Gallup, criminology.

Quotes are edited for brevity.

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My book is based on thirty-five years of criminal justice public relations,” Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization,” available at Amazon.

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Author

Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.

Thirty-five years of explaining crime data while directing multi-award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies.Retired federal senior spokesperson. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet.

Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public Affairs-University of Maryland, University College.

Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University. Former police officer.

Author of ”Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization” available at Amazon and additional booksellers.

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Daily news summations on crime, violent crime, law enforcement, and the justice system are offered under “Google Crime News” in the banner of this website.

A Layperson-Friendly Summation And Analysis of Crime And Fear of Crime Data for Recent Years

My Background:

I summarized crime and justice issues for dignitaries and practitioners when I worked for two US Department of Justice agencies, The National Criminal Justice Reference Service (senior specialist for crime prevention) and the National Crime Prevention Council (director of information services). 

I supplied overviews of crime and criminal justice topics to every national and international media source for 35 years as a director of public information for state criminal justice agencies and the national entities cited above.

I take the complicated topics of crime and justice and offer observations and research summations that the non-criminologist can understand based on my academic and criminal justice experience including six years in law enforcement.

There is significant intricacy when discussing crime statistics.  Analyzing crime becomes complex because readers must go to multiple reports or locations to understand primary sources.

I try to answer most questions here.

Principle Crime Sources

There are many reputable sources for crime in the United States but two are primary, crimes reported to law enforcement compiled by the FBI, and The National Crime Victimization Survey from the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Both are US Department of Justice Agencies. More on both are below.

Links For The Latest National Full-Year Primary Crime Reports From the FBI and the National Crime Victimization Survey

National Crime Victimization Survey

FBI

Subsections Of This Report:

Page 1: Subsections Of This Report

Page 2: Context For This Report–What You Need to Understand

Page 3: Property Crime

Page 4 Summations Of Recent Crime Data, 2021-2024

Page 5: Historic Lows For Crime

Page 6: Crime Data From City Police Crime Dashboards

Page 7: FBI’s New Method Of Collecting and Reporting Crime Data

Page 8: Explaining The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) National Crime Victimization Survey

Page 9: Who’s Impacted By Crime?

Page 10: Violent Crime Never Increased?

Page 11: We Have Never Lived In Safer Times?

Page 12: The Complexity Of Crime Statistics

Page 13: Fear Of Crime

Page 14: Identity Theft-Cybercrime

Page 15: Federal Crime Data Presented Before National Elections

Page 16: Repeat Victimizations

Page 17: Brief Summations of FBI and National Crime Victimization Survey Data By Year

Page 18: Extended Summations Of FBI and National Crime Victimization Survey Data By Year

Page 19: Links To Sources For FBI and National Crime Victimization Survey Data By Year

Page 20: Data From Gallup

Page 21:Three National Measures of Violence-The FBI, the National Crime Victimization Survey, And Gallup

Page 22: Appendix-Media Reports on Crime

1.

Context For The Rest Of This Document

My apologies for the extended context before examining crime numbers. Detailed crime data is offered on page 4 for 2020-2024 and quick summations are available for 2012 to 2024 on pages 17-18.

But understanding crime is vastly complex and context is necessary, especially for journalists.

The Vast Majority Of Crime Is Not Reported To Law Enforcement

I’ll summarize, the vast majority of what we call crime is NOT reported to law enforcement and DOES NOT end up in FBI crime statistics. If you want details, see below. If not, skip this section.

Does this mean that FBI statistics are invalid? No. Their trend lines are historically accurate regardless of the numbers counted, but there is current disagreement with trend lines when compared to the National Crime Victimization Survey.

Please understand that the vast majority of crimes are NOT known to law enforcement which means that crimes reported to the police (as offered by the FBI) provide a very small subset of crime, which is why the US Department of Justice created the National Crime Victimization Survey over 50 years ago to measure all crime (except homicides-you can’t interview dead people).

For example, approximately 80 percent of all crimes are property offenses, and, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, only 30 percent of those are brought to the attention of the police.

The FBI offers reported crime, not all crime, yet the great majority of media and public crime discussions will solely focus on FBI data. 

The criminological community has traditionally supported the National Crime Victimization Survey as a far more accurate overview of crime in the United States. Crimes reported to law enforcement via the FBI involved 14 million criminal offenses compared to the 40 million plus figure via the NCVS (including identity theft).

46 percent of violent victimizations were reported to police in 2021, higher than in 2020 (40%) per the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

42 percent of violent victimizations were reported in 2022. 32 percent of property crimes were reported.

45 percent of violent crimes were reported in 2023. 30 percent of property crimes were reported.

74 percent of violent victimizations against juveniles were not reported to the police and juvenile crime seems to be growing in some cities.

For identity theft, roughly 7 percent of incidents were reported per the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

There are 120 million porch package thefts in 2024, far more than all categories of property crime recorded by the FBI in 2023. Twenty-three percent of porch package thefts are reported to law enforcement.

About 12,000 hate crime incidents were reported to the FBI and approximately 250,000 yearly hate crime incidents were recorded by the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey.

Like all crime statistics, caution is urged; some variables affect the willingness of people to report crimes.

Variables include: Excessive wait times for police officers to arrive due to losing thousands of officers (per the Bureau Of Labor Statistics) to resignations or retirement impeding crime reporting, issues with police-community relations due to protests and negative media coverage of the police use of force, police officers not writing reports because they believe that criminal justice reforms negate their efforts or they are discouraged from creating reports due to pressure over crime numbers.

Law enforcement agencies also continue to struggle with the adoption of the FBI’s new National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) although the percentage of participation is increasing substantially while noting that the FBI is allowing agencies to submit data from the old Summary Reporting System (SRS).

NIBRS collects data for 52 offenses, plus 10 additional offenses for which only arrests are reported. SRS counts limited data for 10 offenses and 20 additional crimes for which only arrests are reported.

Per the FBI, while NIBRS estimates provide a nationally representative view of crime across the country, the estimates themselves are subject to levels of uncertainty caused by incomplete NIBRS reporting. Per the Marshall Project, 8,356 agencies submitted all 12 months of crime data in 2022, 44% of all police agencies. 

Note that arrests have plummeted over the last two decades and arrests declined sharply since the beginning of the police use of force protests (2014) and COVID-19 (2020) thus there is evidence that events affect numbers. If there’s no arrest and no paperwork, was the crime counted in official statistics? In Washington, D.C., there are disputes over what counts as a homicide.

Crimes solved have also declined considerably.

Use Of Big City Police Crime Dashboard Data-Are City Crime Numbers An Accurate Indication Of National Crime?

Why do I include crime reports based on big-city crime dashboards? Three groups now use the method and they are driving the current conversation of whether crime is increasing or decreasing in the United States based on reported crimes.

People are tired of waiting for the FBI to release crime data for the previous year in the fall. But, interestingly, the FBI is now releasing quarterly national crime data with plans to offer monthly reports.

Numbers for 2023 per big city crime dashboard have their own section below. One private organization’s predictions were mostly inaccurate. See page 7.

Crime Decreases Were Inevitable After Big Increases 

Decreases in reported crime could also be nothing more than an ebb and flow of crime numbers over time. After the Major Cities Chiefs Association report stated that homicides increased by 50 percent and aggravated assaults increased by 36 percent for their cities measured from 2019-2022, it was inevitable that reported violence would decrease regardless of interventions (known as a regression to the mean or average). Increases or decreases in crime always change over time regardless of crime interventions. 

Baseline Data

You can prove any crime statistic based on the year you compare statistics to (baseline data). Most current use of baseline data compares crime to 2019, the year before COVID. 

Full-Year Crime Reports Versus Preliminary Crime Reports

You will see discussions of full-year crime reports versus preliminary crime reports. Traditionally, full-year final crime reports are considered the official position of the US Department of Justice. Preliminary reports “may” be accurate but are subject to change; they often overstate crime trends (see below). Preliminary reports need to be used with caution,  (the data could-will change). 

Preliminary crime statistics only apply to FBI data. The National Crime Victimization Survey does not issue preliminary numbers.

The FBI and the National Crime Victimization Survey Revises Its Crime Numbers

See Jeff Asher’s analysis regarding revisions in numbers from the FBI for 2021. Jeff states, “The problem is that the NIBRS switch meant that the share of the US population covered by an agency reporting crime data fell from roughly 95 percent in an average year to 65 percent in 2021.” “The 2021 estimates require an asterisk and should be ignored, and analyzing crime trends shouldn’t rely on them.”

If you want to explain how the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics revise or compute missing or incomplete data from law enforcement agencies, see here via Jeff Asher. 

The National Crime Victimization Survey also revises their data.

Both the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics released data before the presidential election in 2020 indicating that violence decreased. Both clarified via emails that there were definitional issues and that violence did not decrease.

The FBI’s preliminary numbers for 2023 were significantly off when compared to the final numbers (see below).

Per one media source, “David Mastio of the Kansas City Star reached out to the FBI’s press office, asking about RealClearInvestigations‘ scoop that the bureau quietly revised the 2022 crime statistics, “releasing new data that shows violent crime increased in 2022 by 4.5 percent. The new data includes thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.” 

The FBI via an October 2024 email stated, “The FBI stands behind each of our Crime in the Nation publications. In 2022, the estimated violent crime rate decreased 1.7 percent from 2021. 

The moral of the story? There are disagreements as to crime numbers. I suggest that you not wed yourself to precise crime data as offered; numbers can change. 

Crime Reports Vary By Methods Of Data Collection

Readers ask about the differences between crimes reported to law enforcement through the FBI and crimes collected via the National Crime Victimization Survey from the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

This report uses data from various sources that collect crime numbers in different ways and offers their findings in divergent formats. Reports may differ based on the methodologies used and how they report their findings. Disagreements as to findings may be nothing more than how the data was collected and presented.

Divergent reports collect and report crime data differently; it’s not necessarily a matter of correct or incorrect data.

Long Range Crime Data

The United States experienced a substantial drop in criminality over a 20-year-plus period (covered below) which partially ended with a 28 percent increase in violent crime and serious violent crime (2018 compared to 2015) per the National Crime Victimization Survey. It’s up to readers to judge if long-range crime charts are meaningful, or a history lesson. Most readers don’t care what happened in 1995, they want to know what’s happening now (or in recent years) as to crime and their safety.

Complexity Of Understanding National Crime Statistics

Yes, it’s confusing. Sometimes massively so. Even those of us who spend a lifetime examining national crime statistics become bewildered by the complexity of crime and its accurate reporting. See page 13 for examples.

Most federal crime reports and websites are intricate and difficult to read and understand, the reason for creating this report.

2.

Property Crimes

While most of this report focuses on violent crime, it’s important to note that there “was” a considerable and continuous decrease in property crime over time (with some exceptions from the FBI and the National Crime Victimization Survey) until the National Crime Victimization Survey for 2022 released data saying that:

Households in the United States experienced 13.4 million property victimizations in 2022, up from 11.7 million in 2021. The rate of property victimization in 2022 was 101.9 victimizations per 1,000 households, higher than the rate in 2021 (90.3 per 1,000).

Per the National Crime Victimization Survey for 2023, Households in the United States experienced 13.6 million property victimizations in 2023. The number of property victimizations was comparable to the number in 2022 but higher than the 12.8 million in 2019. Property crime includes burglary or trespassing, motor vehicle theft, and other types of household theft.

Property crime via the National Crime Victimization Survey indicates increases in vehicle theft and an overall increase in property crimes in recent years.

FBI Property Crimes Reported To Law Enforcement

As to crimes reported to law enforcement as recorded by the FBI, the property crime rate increased considerably for the first time since 2012 per the FBI’s 2022 report.

For 2023, the FBI suggests declines in all forms of property crimes except for vehicle theft (which increased considerably). It’s –2.4 percent overall, for burglary, -7.6 percent, for Larceny, -4.4 percent, for Motor Vehicle Theft, it increased by 12.6%.

Other Sources For Property Crimes

Per Gallup, Americans are most likely to have experienced theft, with 14% saying money or property was stolen from them or another household member in the past year. Vandalism, at 12%, is also one of the more common crimes. The biggest increase observed in 2021 was three percentage points for burglary, with 5% saying their home or apartment was broken into in the past year (link below).

Retail shrink (shoplifting-organized attacks) hit $94.5 billion in 2021, a 53% jump from 2019, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual survey of around 60 retail member companies, CNN. Data from a variety of sources suggest that shoplifting losses continue to increase.

According to the National Retail Federation, $112.1 billion in losses were attributed to shrink—mostly theft and organized retail crime (ORC)—in 2022, a 19% increase over the year before. 

There are 120 million porch package thefts in the US. Searches for “stolen package” spike every December, according to Google Trends. The survey indicated that there are far more porch pirate thefts than total reported property crimes to the FBI. The financial toll of these thefts is $16 billion. 

3.

Summation Of The Most Recent Violent And Property Crime Data-2021 to 2024-Presented in Chronological Order

Includes Preliminary Half-Year Statistics From The FBI For 2024 “And” Preliminary Crime Full-Year Statistics From The FBI for 2023

See Summations Of Historical Data From The FBI and Bureau of Justice Statistics-National Crime Victimization Survey, 2012 to 2024 On Pages 18-19

First Six Months Of FBI Preliminary Crimes Reported To Law Enforcement For 2024

On Monday, September 30, 2024, the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program released reported crime data for January-June 2024 on the FBI’s Crime Data Explorer (CDE) at https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov.

The January-June 2024 data, provides a preliminary look at crime trends for January through June 2024 compared to January through June 2023.

A comparison of data from agencies that voluntarily submitted at least three or more common months of data for January through June 2023 and 2024 indicates:

Reported violent crime decreased by 10.3 percent

Murder decreased by 22.7 percent

Rape decreased by 17.7 percent

Robbery decreased by 13.6 percent

Aggravated assault decreased by 8.1 percent

Reported property crime decreased by 13.1 percent

Warnings On The Use Of Preliminary Reported Crime Data

Analysts continue to warn that preliminary crime data is often subject to overstatement. Law enforcement agencies often release data at the end of the calendar year. If one looks at FBI figures for the month most crime happens, it’s December. Is that accurate? No. It simply reflects the fact that some (many?) police agencies can (and do) wait till the end of the year to offer crime statistics. What you get now will change. More on this topic is below.

There are other factors to consider, see USDOJ: Record Increase in Violence “Or” Violent Crime Declined 10 Percent For January-June 2024.

FBI Releases Official 2023 Crimes Reported To Law Enforcement-Violence Decreased 3 Percent

The FBI released detailed data on over 14 million criminal offenses for 2023 reported to the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program by participating law enforcement agencies. More than 16,000 agencies, covering a combined population of 94.3% inhabitants, submitted data to the UCR Program through the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) and the Summary Reporting System. There are approximately 19,000 police agencies in the US per the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

The FBI’s crime statistics estimates, based on reported data for 2023, show that national violent crime decreased an estimated 3.0 percent in 2023 compared to 2022 estimates.  

Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded a 2023 estimated nationwide decrease of 11.6% compared to the previous year.  

In 2023, the estimated number of offenses in the revised rape category saw an estimated 9.4% decrease.  

Aggravated assault figures decreased an estimated 2.8 percent in 2023. 

Robbery showed an estimated decrease of 0.3 percent nationally.

Overall property crime was down by 2.4 percent.

Burglary decreased by 7.6 percent.

Larceny dropped by 4.4 percent.

Motor Vehicle Theft increased by 12.6 percent.

In 2023, 16,009 agencies participated in the hate crime collection, with a population coverage of 95.2%. Law enforcement agencies submitted incident reports involving 11,862 criminal incidents and 13,829 related offenses as being motivated by bias toward race, ethnicity, ancestry, religion, sexual orientation, disability, gender, and gender identity.  

According to this dataset, reported hate crime incidents decreased 0.6% from 10,687 in 2022 to 10,627 in 2023.  

The complete analysis is located on the FBI’s Crime Data Explorer. 

A Summation For Preliminary Full-Year 2023 Data From The FBI 

The FBI in March of 2023 released a preliminary full-year crime report for 2023 in record time. Throughout decades of FBI crime data, the release of full-year data has never happened this early. Ordinarily, we would have to wait for late fall for an official full-year crime report.

It’s Overstated

It indicates that every category of crime was overstated via the preliminary report; the predicted decreases were more than the official full-year report. For example, the preliminary report predicted a 5.7 percent reduction in violent crime. The official report for 2023 puts the decrease at 3 percent.

The preliminary report offers a 13.2 percent reduction in homicides whereas the official report offers a decrease of 11.6 percent. 

The preliminary report indicated a decrease of 4.7 percent for robberies. The official report offers a 0.3 percent decrease.

The lesson? Preliminary reports from the FBI or private organizations can overstate crime reductions or increases. One organization suggested that most crimes decreased in 2023 based on their analysis of city crime data.

The preliminary report also indicated that reductions in crime were much higher for nonmetropolitan areas than metropolitan areas which was surprising.

For additional context, see Crime Decreased In 2023 Per The FBI-Metropolitan Areas Still Struggle With Crime.

National Crime Victimization Survey Releases 2022-2023 Crime Statistics-Largest Increase in Violent Crime In The Nation’s History-Official Data

The National Crime Victimization Survey in a 2023 report for the calendar year 2022 offered the largest increase in violent crime in the nation’s history (44 percent) per analyst Jeff Asher, and The Marshall Project.

The Bureau of Justice Statistics did not provide the percentage increase (but they have provided percentage increases multiple times in the past).

Per the press release (September 12, 2024) from the US Department of Justice for the new 2023 report, “Data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) indicate that in 2023, the rate of nonfatal violent victimization in the United States was 22.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older, which was similar to the 2022 rate of 23.5 violent victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.”

Per the September 12, 2024, USDOJ press release headline, “Violent victimization unchanged year over year…”

That means that the record 44 percent increase in US violence largely continues from 2022 to 2023.

It remains the largest increase in violent crime in the nation’s history.

In 2023, there were 22.5 violent victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in the United States.

About 9% of violent victimizations involved a firearm in 2023, similar to 2022.

The rate of property victimization in urban areas (emphasis added) increased from 176.1 per 1,000 households in 2022 to 192.3 per 1,000 in 2023.

The rates and numbers for overall violent crime remain similar for 2022 and 2023 with small decreases in most numbers “or” rates except for robberies, simple assault (the majority of violent crimes), and stranger violence. Vehicle thefts continued to increase.

Per the NCVS, households in the United States experienced 13.6 million property victimizations in 2023. The number of property victimizations was comparable to the number in 2022 but higher than the 12.8 million in 2019. Property crime includes burglary or trespassing, motor vehicle theft, and other types of household theft.

Report (August 2023) from the National Crime Victimization Survey for 2022-Official Data

As stated above, violent crime increased by 44 percent in 2022 according to the National Crime Victimization Survey (per Jeff Asher and The Marshall Project) but the Bureau of Justice Statistics did not provide this statistic.

A 44 percent increase in violence is the largest ever recorded.

The violent victimization rate increased from 16.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons in 2021 to 23.5 per 1,000 in 2022.

There were 6.6 million violent victimizations of persons age 12 or older in the United States in 2022, up from 4.6 million in 2021.

Many groups had large percentage increases in violent victimization.

Households in the United States experienced 13.4 million property victimizations in 2022, up from 11.7 million in 2021.

The rate of property victimization in 2022 was 101.9 victimizations per 1,000 households, higher than the rate in 2021 (90.3 per 1,000).

In 2022, about 2 in 5 (42%) violent victimizations were reported to police.

Motor vehicle theft victimization increased from a rate of 4.3 victimizations per 1,000 households in 2021 to 5.5 per 1,000 in 2022.

About 10% of violent victimizations involved a firearm in 2022, an increase from 2021 (7%).

In 2022, about 1.24% (3.5 million) of persons age 12 or older nationwide experienced at least one violent crime.

Full-Year Report (October 2023) From The FBI for 2022 -Official Statistics

The FBI offers 12 categories of crimes (13 including hate crimes). Four categories decreased, six categories increased and one (burglary) was flat. Hate crimes increased.

The FBI’s crime statistics estimates for 2022 show that national violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7% in 2022 compared to 2021 estimates.

Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded a 2022 estimated nationwide decrease of 6.1% compared to the previous year.

In 2022, the estimated number of offenses in the revised rape category saw an estimated 5.4% decrease.

Aggravated assault in 2022 decreased an estimated 1.1% in 2022.

Robbery showed an estimated increase of 1.3% nationally.

The property crime rate increased considerably for the first time since 2012.

The rate of arson increased considerably.

The rate for burglaries was flat.

The rate of larcenies-thefts increased.

The rate of motor vehicle thefts increased considerably.

The FBI reported a 6.9% increase in hate crimes from 2021 to 2022 and a rise in law enforcement participating in reporting, Axios.

Associated Press-The estimated number of juvenile victims of fatal gun violence rose 11.8 percent.

Summation Of National Yearly Violent Crime Data-2021 From Multiple Sources

I’m going to deviate a bit from the reports above to include additional data from other sources for my analysis of 2021 crime data.

To suggest that the numbers for 2021 are massively complex (based on their methodologies and problems collecting data) would be an understatement.

You could legitimately state that violent crime did not increase in 2021 based on numbers from the FBI and the National Crime Victimization Survey.

But it’s equally correct to state that, per the FBI, homicides increased considerably between 2019 and 2021 (nearly 30 percent in 2020 and 4.3 percent in 2021) and that murders have been traditionally used by criminologists as an indicator of all violent crime. Rapes also increased in 2021.

The 2021 US firearm homicides (81 percent of all murders) were the highest since the 1990s, Centers For Disease Control (CDC) data show. They recorded an 8.3 percent increase in 2021, CNN.

The risk of victimization while a person was out in public rose by nearly 40% by April 2020, National Academy Of Sciences.

From 2020 to 2021, the violent victimization rate increased from 19.0 to 24.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons in urban areas while remaining unchanged in suburban or rural areas. The rate of serious (excluding common assaults) violent victimization in urban areas also increased, per the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey.

Per Gallup, there is a big increase in the criminal victimization of urban households in 2021, 30 percent compared to 22 percent in 2020. Seven percent of urban residents were violently victimized compared to 3% of U.S. adults. The collective data (urban crime victimization-computer crime) indicates a growing crime problem for at least half of American households (link below).

Per other reputable sources, there were increases in aggravated assaults, firearm assaults, and motor vehicle thefts (links below).

Yet it’s the official position of the US Department of Justice via the FBI and the National Crime Victimization Survey that overall violent crime was flat for 2021.

Sources for the above are available at New US Crime Data.

4.

Context-Historic Lows

We had over 20 years of decline in crime before violence began to rise in 2011-2012 with some years of increases and some years of decreases after.

Violent crime and serious violent crime increased by 28 percent over three years (2015-2018) per the Bureau of Justice Statistics-National Crime Victimization Survey. The violent crime rate had declined for nearly two decades before increasing in 2011 and 2012. FBI data indicates that violence began to rise in 2012.

You will hear from a variety of sources that current violence is far below that of previous decades which is true yet fear of crime (see below) is currently at record highs.

There is also data indicating that most Americans are victimized by crime each year including violent, property, identity theft, and cyber crimes. Repeat victimizations may have an impact on understanding these numbers.

Tens of millions of Americans are victimized by violent and property crimes, cybercrime, and identity theft every year.

A pattern of crime increases for some (not all) years seems to begin in 2011. See the yearly summation below.

Data from the National Crime Victimization Survey state that we were at record historical lows for criminal activity. From 1993 to 2015, the rate of violent crime declined from 79.8 to 18.6 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.

From 1993 to 2021, the rate of violent victimization declined from 79.8 to 16.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.

According to FBI numbers, the violent crime rate fell 48 percent between 1993 and 2016. Using data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (National Crime Victimization Survey), the rate fell by 74 percent during that span.

5.

Latest Crime Data From Researchers Using Big City Police Crime Dashboards

Homicides and Shootings Are Down?

Please note that the latest National Crime Victimization Survey data for 2022-2023 indicates that violent crime increased by 44 percent (to my knowledge, the largest increase in violent crime ever recorded). 

2023 Crime Summation From Jeff Asher

See Jeff Asher’s latest reports indicating that there are significant reductions in reported crime. He includes summations of national reports and an analysis of emerging trends based on big-city crime dashboards. I recommend his work. He also includes summations of  FBI preliminary reports.

The FBI released its annual Crime in the United States estimates for 2023 showing an 11.6 percent decline in murder, a 3 decline in violent crime, and a 2.4 decline in property crime nationally last year. The FBI’s 2023 report is based on reporting from 94.3 percent of the US population.

 

2023 Yearly Crime Summation From The Council On Criminal Justice

Note: Much of this study was inaccurate compared to 2023 results from the FBI.

This study updates and supplements previous U.S. crime trends reports by the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) with data through December 2023. It examines monthly rates at which 12 offenses are reported to law enforcement in 38 American cities. 

The number of homicides in the 32 study cities providing homicide data was 10% lower—representing 515 fewer homicides—in 2023 than in 2022.

Looking at other violent offenses, there were 3% fewer reported aggravated assaults in 2023 than in 2022 and 7% fewer gun assaults in 11 reporting cities. Reported carjacking incidents fell by 5% in 10 reporting cities but robberies and domestic violence incidents each rose 2%.

Among property crimes, reports of residential burglaries (-3%), nonresidential burglaries (-7%), and larcenies (-4%) all decreased in 2023 compared to 2022. The number of drug offenses increased by 4% over the same period.

Motor vehicle theft, a crime that has been on the rise since the summer of 2020, continued its upward trajectory through 2023. There were 29% more reported motor vehicle thefts in 2023 than in 2022.

Most violent offenses remained elevated in 2023 compared to 2019, the year prior to the outbreak of COVID and the widespread social unrest of 2020. There were 18% more homicides in the study cities in 2023 than in 2019, and carjacking has spiked by 93% during that period.

Property crime trends have been more mixed. There were fewer residential burglaries and larcenies and more nonresidential burglaries in 2023 than in 2019. Motor vehicle thefts more than doubled (+105%) during this timeframe, while drug crimes fell by 27%. A dashboard of all crime rates and percent changes from 2019 to 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 is located at the end of this report.

2023 Full-Year Crime Summation- The Major Cities Chiefs Association

If you scroll down via the link above you will see cities where homicides and other forms of crime have increased.

For a list of cities where crime is decreasing or increasing in 2023, see ABC News or click on the link above for the Major Cities Chiefs Association and scroll down the page.

The consensus for the use of city crime dashboard data is that the trends are correct while the projections for individual crimes may be off.

2024 Half-Year Crime Summation- The Major Cities Chiefs Association

 

6.

FBI’s New Method Of Collecting and Reporting Crime Data-The National Incident-Based Reporting System

Note: See below for summations of FBI yearly statistics.

The FBI is now using the National Incident-Based Reporting System which is different than the previous reporting methods, see Counting Crime.

The National Incident-Based Reporting System includes multiple crimes connected to an incident, not just the most serious crime used in the old Summary Reporting System, thus more crimes could be recorded.

Per an FBI estimate, 11 percent of all criminal episodes involved multiple offenses. However, the NIBRS collects far more categories of crime than the older Summary Reporting System.

The National Incident-Based Reporting System is supposed to be the only reporting system used for national crime data.

Per the FBI, full-year data from 2022-2024 (preliminary) was a mix of reports from the old and new reporting systems.

The Problem

There is concern that the FBI’s National Incident-Based Reporting System does not have a sufficient number of law enforcement agencies participating thus leaving some to speculate that quarterly or yearly reports may be compromised. Only 52 percent of law enforcement agencies provided yearly data for 2021.

Per the Associated Press, some law enforcement agencies failed to provide data for 2022. However a change in collection methods in compiling 2022 numbers helped, and the FBI said the new data represents 83.3% of all agencies covering 93.5% of the population. By contrast, last year’s numbers were from only 62.7% of agencies, representing 64.8% of Americans.

From Time Magazine: The following major cities did not report data to the FBI, or did not report data for the full year of 2021:

• Bakersfield, Calif.
• Baltimore
• Chicago
• Fresno, Calif.
• Jacksonville, Fla.
• Long Beach, Calif.
• Los Angeles
• Miami
• New York City
• Oakland, Calif.
• Omaha, Neb.
• Philadelphia
• Phoenix
• Sacramento, Calif.
• San Francisco
• San Jose, Calif.
• Tucson, Ariz.
• Washington, D.C.

Per The Marshall Project–Many Large Police Agencies Still Missing From National Crime Data For 2022.

Of the 19 biggest law enforcement agencies — each of which police more than 1 million people — seven were missing from the FBI’s 2022 crime data. The missing agencies include the LAPD, the NYPD, and police departments in Phoenix, San Jose and New York’s Suffolk County.

Analyst Jeff Asher provided an update of police agency participation in the FBI’s Incident-Based Reporting System in March of 2024. It seems that larger agencies are reaching an 80 percent participation while smaller police agencies are still far behind (a little over 50 percent).

7.

A Focus On The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) National Crime Victimization Survey

Why do I write about the National Crime Victimization Survey? Because it’s probably the best count of “all” crimes, not just reported crimes as offered by the FBI. However, their reports are often ignored because few are familiar with the survey. It has a 50-year history of analyzing crime.

See below for summations of the National Crime Victimization Survey yearly statistics.

See Is Violence Rising Or Falling? Understanding Quirks Within The National Crime Victimization Survey for the full article addressing the complexities of National Crime Victimization Survey Data.

The vast majority of crimes are not reported to law enforcement. 45 percent of violent crimes were reported per the National Crime Victimization Survey in 2023. It’s much less for property crimes (30 percent) thus the need for a national survey to count “all” crimes.

The survey uses a methodology similar to the US Census.

The 2022 report is the 50th in a series that began in 1973 and includes statistics on nonfatal violent crimes (rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault) and property crimes (burglary or trespassing, motor vehicle theft, and other types of household theft).

The report also describes the characteristics of crimes and victims. The report does not count homicides (you can’t interview dead people). It excludes those under age 12. Business crime is not included. The survey also offers special reports on a variety of crimes beyond those usually counted.

Annual National Criminal Victimization Survey estimates are based on the number and characteristics of crimes that respondents experienced during the prior 6 months, excluding the month in which they were interviewed.

Some suggest that crimes reported to law enforcement (as compiled by the FBI) are “important” enough to call the police and that surveys count the “real” number of crimes.

People do not report crimes to the police for an endless number of reasons, one is that most violent crime happens among people who know each other.

Your drunk friend could hit you with a beer bottle (an aggravated assault) but you choose to handle it personally. But when the National Crime Victimization Survey calls and asks about recent victimizations, you tell them about the assault (there is no effort to identify the offender).

Both the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics release separate full-year crime reports in the fall for the preceding year thus both release what is essentially old data “yet” the FBI’s crimes reported to law enforcement will get significantly more media coverage because people are more familiar with it.

It would take pages to describe the challenges both agencies are having with their crime statistics. I’ll summarize with the observation that the FBI moved to a new-comprehensive and robust reporting system (National Incident-Based Reporting System) but some local law enforcement agencies in 2023 haven’t completed their adoption. 

The Bureau of Justice Statistics is contemplating a redesign as to how they collect data through the National Crime Victimization Survey (redesign reports are available on their website).

My description here of the complexities is woefully understated, see below for more.

What’s Wrong With The National Crime Victimization Survey?

The short answer is nothing. The world of survey research is complex, even more so because during the pandemic with numerous references from major polling organizations changing survey strategies.

As stated above, the National Crime Victimization Survey is contemplating a redesign after 50 years of service.

The National Crime Victimization Survey is necessary because the vast majority of violent and property crimes are unreported to law enforcement. To gain an understanding of “all” crime, a national survey is imperative.

The National Crime Victimization Survey offers far larger numbers of crimes reported to law enforcement and national reports issued by the FBI. Generally speaking, the larger the numbers, the more accurate the results.

The National Crime Victimization Survey offers separate reports giving readers a qualitative assessment of dozens of variables about crime. Through these documents, we gain a fairly decent sense of who’s victimized, data on criminal offenders, and additional issues.

But the National Crime Victimization Survey, like all polling data, has its imperfections and disagreements with other national reports on crime. Generally speaking, all polling data was significantly affected by COVID and other national events.

There are times when other authoritative crime data indicate that crime is decreasing and the National Crime Victimization Survey states that crime is increasing.

There are times when other authoritative crime data indicates that crime is increasing while the National Crime Victimization Survey states that crime is decreasing.

No one is suggesting that the data is incorrect, just different than what’s offered from other sources.

Readers need to understand this and compare multiple sources to gain the best possible understanding of crime in the United States.

8.

The Rest Of This Report

The rest of this report focuses on violent crime from reputable sources and who is being impacted.

Included are reports from Gallup, the Centers For Disease Control, and additional sources, fear of crime, crimes reported to law enforcement, and reports claiming reduced crime before national elections.

Who’s Impacted Most By Crime? Data On Victims Of Crime And Violence

Note: I could include a new report daily as to who’s impacted but most of the data below seems representative of the victimization experience.

ABC News: While Blacks account for 14% of the U.S. population, they comprise 60% of those killed by firearm homicides annually, according to an analysis published in February by the Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence. The study, based on data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2017 to 2021, showed Black males 18- to 24-years-old are 23 times more likely to die by firearm homicide than their white male peers. ABC News.

Pew: The number of children and teens killed by gunfire in the United States increased 50% between 2019 and 2021, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of the latest annual mortality statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). In 2021, 46% of all gun deaths among children and teens involved Black victims, even though only 14% of the U.S. under-18 population that year was Black. Homicide was the largest single category of gun deaths among children and teens in 2021, accounting for 60% of the total that year, Pew 

The victims and suspects of homicides and nonfatal shootings in the District of Columbia are primarily male, Black, and between the ages of 18-34. Nearly 92 percent of victims and suspects in homicides and 88 percent of victims and suspects in nonfatal shootings were male. About 96 percent of victims and suspects in both homicides and nonfatal shootings were Black, despite Black residents comprising only 46 percent of the overall population in the District. Approximately 66 percent of homicide victims/suspects and 64 percent of nonfatal shooting victim/suspects were between the ages of 18-34, with a mean age of 29.5 and 29.8, respectively. Across homicides and shootings, both victims and suspects are demographically similar overall, DC Criminal Justice Coordinating Council.

News reports suggest that the cities where protests and or riots have occurred are being hit the hardest, Governing.Com.

It’s African American communities that are bearing the brunt of the violence, NBC News.

The highest homicide gun death rates continue to be in young Black men, at 142 per 100,000 for those in their early 20s, Associated Press. Among Black women, the rate of firearm-related homicides more than tripled since 2010, and the rate of gun-related suicides more than doubled since 2015.

The number of children shot in New York City has doubled since 2017. That year, 75 shooting victims were children. By mid-December of 2022, at least 149 children had been shot. New York Times.

The rise in violent crime across the U.S. has been concentrated in “low-income communities of color” which have disproportionately experienced the impact of school closures and reductions in basic services during the pandemic, according to a study by the University of California-Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, The Crime Report.

In certain U.S. cities, young men are over three times more likely to be shot dead than American soldiers deployed to war zones in the Middle East, new research reveals. The researchers looked at the demographics of the young men in the zip codes under investigation, they found that the risk of violent death and injury was almost entirely tied to individuals from minority racial and ethnic groups. Black and Hispanic males represented 96.2 percent of those who were fatally shot and 97.3 percent of those who experienced non-fatal gun injuries across all four cities.

There were 722 more homicides in nine U.S. cities last year, according to police data. More than 85% of the increase was in predominantly Black and Hispanic neighborhoods, The Marshall Project.

Black males were overwhelmingly the No. 1 demographic killed in most cities. In Chicago, which tallied the most homicides since 1996, 648 of the city’s 797 homicide victims were Black. In Baton Rouge, Louisiana, 105 of the city’s 133 homicides were Black males. In Columbus, Ohio, 135 of the city’s 204 homicides were of Black males. In Louisville, Kentucky, 133 of the city’s 197 homicide victims were Black males. In St. Paul, Minnesota, 17 of the city’s 38 homicides were of Black males. Chicago’s most vulnerable neighborhoods, ones that have borne the disproportionate brunt of gun violence throughout the city, reports the Chicago Tribune. The increases have reached a point where the homicide rate in the most violent parts of the city at the end of 2020 was higher than it was in those places in 1991, a year often considered one of the most violent years in Chicago history. In Los Angeles, 397 people were killed in 2021 — the most in a year since 2007.

Hispanic males were the top demographic killed in L.A. last year, 183 in total, in a city that has a much larger Hispanic than Black population, Fox News.

Gun violence has particularly affected young people this year. Nearly 300 children ages 11 and younger were killed, and more than 660 were injured, says the Gun Violence Archive. Among teens ages 12 to 17, more than 1,000 were killed, and nearly 3,000 were injured.

Gun homicides involving intimate partners rose 25% in 2020, compared with the previous year, to the highest level in almost three decades, newly analyzed FBI data reveals,  The Guardian.

9.

Violent Crime Never Increased?

It’s fair to state that some people and organizations disagree with any suggestion that violence has increased based on historical lows in crime (until 2011-2012) and the uncertainty of COVID-crime-riots and demonstrations regarding the police use of force. Several will point to considerable decreases in violent crime during the COVID lockdowns or recent FBI data.

There are people (and organizations) who insist that crime has decreased, not increased, and that violence in cities was overblown.

Based on 2022 data from the National Crime Victimization Survey with its 44 percent increase in violent crime, the discussion was moot but now we have decreasing crime per data from the FBI.

For those looking for a more nuanced analysis, VOX offers the following: The data backs up the headlines, suggesting that homicide numbers are significantly higher in at least some major US cities. But it’s not clear if this is part of a nationwide phenomenon, or if it’s something isolated to urban centers because we don’t have good data outside the large cities. To make matters more confusing, other types of crime, including violent crime overall, appear to have decreased in many of the same cities, VOX.  Also, see FiveThirtyEight.

10.

We Have Never Lived In Safer Times?

There are those insisting that we have never lived in safer times due to an almost continuous (and considerable) twenty-year-plus decline in crime, but that argument ended since the 28 percent increase in violence and serious violence in 2015-2018 per the National Crime Victimization Survey. 

But most Americans remain convinced that overall crime and violence, especially in urban areas, is rising. Those fears are validated by Gallup (record fear of crime), and the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey (record increases in violence).

But, as stated, FBI full-year crime for 2023 saw decreases in all crime categories except for auto theft.

11.

Complexity Of Understanding National Crime Statistics

Yes, it’s confusing. Sometimes massively so. Even those of us who spend a lifetime examining national crime statistics become bewildered by the complexity of crime and its accurate reporting.

Most federal crime reports and websites are complex and difficult to read and understand, the reason for creating this report. What’s below summarizes recent years.

Examples of Complexity Of Crime Statistics

This section is not meant to confuse readers, but there are times when the two US Department of Justice primary sources for crime release data that need some interpretation. 

First, the vast majority of crimes are not reported to law enforcement. 45 percent of violent crimes and 30 percent of property crimes are reported per the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey for 2023. There are an array of factors to understand why crimes are not reported to the FBI that are offered below.

FBI data is NOT an account of crime; it’s an overview of reported crime.

The National Crime Victimization Survey from the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice is a measure of all crimes with some exceptions (i.e., homicides) but few know of the survey thus their findings are often omitted in crime discussions.

Reported crimes through the FBI are now being offered quicker than ever before. 2023 crimes were released in the fall of 2024 but preliminary full-year crime figures were offered in March of 2024.

To give you an indication of the complexity of crime statistics, there are huge increases in violent crime in 2022 (44 percent per Jeff Asher and The Marshall Project) and large increases in violence for groups per the National Crime Victimization Survey.

A 44 percent increase in violence would be the largest ever recorded “and” it largely continued for 2023.

Yet, according to the FBI, violence decreased slightly in 2022. Per the FBI, it decreased for all forms of violent crime for 2023 for an overall decrease of 3 percent. Aggravated assault figures decreased an estimated 2.8 percent in 2023. Robbery showed an estimated decrease of 0.3 percent nationally. Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded a decrease of 11.6 percent. The estimated number of offenses in the revised rape category saw an estimated 9.4 percent decrease.  

Cybercrime or Internet crimes almost doubled from 2019-2023 via the FBI.

As to FBI data for 2021, only 52 percent of law enforcement agencies participated in the FBI’s new National Incident-Based Reporting System by submitting a full year of data. Major police agencies like New York and Los Angeles did not participate. However, the rate of police agency (and population) participation has improved considerably by the FBI using the previous Summary Reporting System. Some police agencies continue to struggle with full-year participation in the FBI’s National Incident-Based Reporting System.

The Bureau of Justice Statistics states that the violent victimization rate dropped by 22 percent in 2020, Criminal Victimization 2020. This is the largest decrease in violence ever reported by the Bureau of Justice Statistics. It was released in October 2021.

Per 2020 FBI final statistics released in September 2021, the number of homicides increased nearly 30% from 2019, the largest single-year increase the agency has recorded since it began tracking these crimes in the 1960s. Overall violent crime and aggravated assaults also increased. Historically, homicides have been used as an indicator of overall violence.

Per the National Crime Victimization Survey in 2019, violence decreased, then was flat, but decreased again, all in the same year.

12.

Fear of Crime

I spoke to a person regarding national crime statistics who told me that crime data was irrelevant. The most important indicator of crime in the United States was fear of crime.

Multiple years of data are included in the summation below.

Pundits will forever tell you that fear of crime is overblown. Overall crime has decreased throughout recent decades (true up to 2015) and Americans expressing fear of crime were simply misinformed or misguided by media reports.

National reports on crime are often in disagreement.  Whether crime and violence are increasing or decreasing often depends on the source you use.

Yet many feel that criticism of Americans as to how they feel about crime is insulting. Fear drives our decisions as to where to live or what businesses to support or places to invest. Concern about crime can destroy commercial establishments or sections of cities or an entire city. It has a major impact on state and national elections

The Hill

Nearly two-thirds of Americans believe crime is an “extremely” or “very” serious problem in the U.S., according to a Gallup poll.

The 63 percent rate is the highest collected by Gallup, with the previous high of 60 percent found in 2000, 2010, and 2016.

A small proportion of respondents considered crime extremely serious in their local communities — 17 percent — but more than half of them believe crime has gone up in their area.

Nationally, about three-quarters of Americans believe crime has gone up, underlining the tough-on-crime political narrative of conservative politicians.

Los Angeles Times

Only 35% of respondents in an NPR/Marist survey conducted in March said President Biden was doing a good job when it came to handling crime — a lower mark than his already low approval rating. He earned similarly poor marks from people of color and those under 45, voters he needs to motivate if he wants to win reelection.

Home Bay-Allied Van Lines

Low crime rates jumped from the second-most desirable trait in 2022 to the most desirable in 2023. Public safety has become the highest priority as violence on the news cycle convinces Americans life is becoming more dangerous. Although gun violence and motor vehicle thefts have indeed soared since the pandemic, homicides and the overall crime rate are actually falling.

In the past year, Americans have become less satisfied with where they live, according to a new survey conducted by Home Bay and Allied Van Lines. In 2023, just 63% of Americans say they like where they live, down from 80% in 2022.

CBS News

Bloomberg’s twelve years in office coincided with an urban renaissance, not just in New York, but in cities across the United States. Downtowns flourished as crime fell to its lowest rate in decades – a far cry from where many American cities find themselves today.

Rocca asked, “Compared to early 2020, before the pandemic, most American cities by most measures are still worse off,” Rocca said. “What is the number one thing that has to happen for cities, in general, in the U.S. to turn it around?”

“Well, the first thing, you got to stop crime and get guns off the streets,” Bloomberg replied. “There’s no secrets here to this stuff. All these problems are problems that we know how to solve, but you got to have the desire to do so.”

Bloomberg

This line of argument was a particularly vivid example of a familiar trope in US transportation discussions: the crime train. The underlying narrative? Rail-based public transit originating in cities will undoubtedly export urban ills to adjoining regions. It’s a variant of the broader unease with US public transportation itself, and its perceived associations with poverty and dysfunction. But crime train adherents are particularly fixated on the mode in question and the notion that rail transit is both risky for riders and an effective means of shuttling lawbreakers around.

The Stranger

At the end of January, Capitol Hill vegan restaurant Life on Mars started cataloging on Instagram the woes of existing as a small business in Seattle. A random passerby had thrown a rock through their window. Someone lit a fire on their patio. Someone else threw a rock through the restaurant’s door. There was graffiti, drug use, and even stolen plants.

“We have to consider what we are even doing here anymore,” the restaurant posted on Jan 25. “Good times.”

The Rasmussen Reports group showed that 61% of their respondents believe that violent crime in America is getting worse. And polling by Gallup showed that violent crime is a concern among 80% of Americans, including 53% who worry a “great deal” and 27% who are concerned to a “fair” degree. The Rasmussen survey was released on April 8, 2022, the Gallup poll was made public on April 7.

National and local perceptions/fear about crime are at or near their peak levels for the past 25 years. Americans are more likely to perceive crime in the U.S. as having increased over the prior year than they have been at any point since 1993, Gallup.

Most Americans are impacted by street or computer crimes yearly. Fifty-one percent, up from 38% in 2020, say there is more crime in their area than a year ago, Gallup.

Crime is a national concern, Pew. The economy, health care, and COVID led the categories.

Americans’ concerns over crime have hit a four-year high, according to a Washington Post- ABC News poll. Fifty-nine percent of respondents said that crime is an “extremely” or “very serious” problem in the U.S., the highest level since 2017. On a local level, worries about crime are also growing, though lower than the national concern, The Hill (Newspaper Of Congress).

Americans are more likely to perceive crime in the U.S. as having increased over the prior year (78%) than they have been at any point since 1993, Gallup.

Gallup presents a multi-year overview of perceptions of crime, see Gallup.

After the riots and protests of 2020, a majority of Americans say they are concerned about rising crime in U.S. cities, according to a new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill. Seventy-seven percent of respondents say they are concerned that crime is rising in the nation’s cities, while 46 percent of respondents said they were concerned about rising crime in their own communities, The Hill.

Mass Shootings: In the wake of two August mass shootings that claimed the lives of 31 people in one weekend, Americans are more worried about themselves or a family member being the victim of a mass shooting than they were after two previous massacres. Currently, 48% of U.S. adults are “very” or “somewhat” worried, compared with 39% in 2017 after one gunman killed 58 people in Las Vegas and 38% in 2015 after a San Bernardino shooter left 14 dead, Gallup.

Worry About Crime: 75 percent of Americans worry about crime and violence (April 2019), Gallup.

Fear of crime was the top national concern in 2018. Per Gallup, 75 percent of Americans worry about crime and violence (down from 78 percent in March 2018), which was the same as health care, the top concern, Fear of Crime. Gallup asked those polled if they worried about topics a great deal or a fair amount. Crime was ranked the same as health care using a combined score.

Half of Americans believe crime is very or extremely serious. In 2018, just under half (49%) of Americans believe the problem of crime in the United States is very or extremely serious — a 10-percentage-point drop and the first time the number has been below 50% since 2005, Serious Crime Concerns.

88 Percent Say Violent Crime Is A Problem: Per Pew, 54 percent say that violent crime is a very big problem while 34 percent say it’s a moderately big problem. Pew.

Crime A National Concern: As crime rates continue to soar across the country, a new Fox Business survey finds almost 8 in 10 registered voters  (77 percent) are “extremely” or “very” concerned about the surge. The only issue more pressing is inflation (84 percent “extremely” or “very” concerned), Fox Business.

Fear Of Crime Among Groups

42% Of Black Adults Say Crime Is A Major Problem. Some 43% of urban residents now say crime is a major problem in their community, compared with 35% in 2018. Needless to say, Pew addressed “major” problems. If we included “problems” with crime and violence, the percentage would be much higher, Pew.

Latinos say crime and gun violence is their number two concern — behind COVID-19 and before immigration, social justice or voting rights — in our inaugural Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll in partnership with Noticias Telemundo, Axios

About eight in ten Asian Americans say violence against them is increasing in the U.S., an April survey found.

Crime As A National Priority Among Voters

There is a multitude of national polls stating that crime and violence are top concerns for voters in 2022. See Pew for an example.

13.

Identity Theft-Fraud-Cyber Crime

23 Million Americans Are Victims Of Identity Theft Costing Over 15 Billion Dollars, 2022, Bureau of Justice Statistics.

Per Gallup, (2016) beyond the 29 percent of households victimized by violent and property crimes, 27 percent of households had their credit card stolen by hackers and 17 percent of households were victims of identity theft.

Gallup refers to these figures as a direct experience with crime.

Per Gallup (2021) beyond the 23 percent of households victimized by violent and property crimes, 28 percent of households had their credit card stolen by hackers and 17 percent were victims of identity theft.

Per the FBI in 2024, cybercrimes-Internet crimes almost doubled between 2019-2023.

14.

Federal Crime Data Presented Before Elections

It’s interesting as to how the federal government presents crime data before elections:

Claimed Pre-2024 National Election Decreases in Violent Crime From The FBI And The National Crime Victimization Survey

The FBI broke all records in offering full-year preliminary crime decreases for 2023 in March of 2024. It recorded decreases for all crime categories except for vehicle theft. It’s usually offered in the fall for the preceding year.

The data from the full-year 2022-2023 crime statistics from the National Crime Victimization Survey never posted the percentage increases in violence as they have done multiple times in the past for both increases and decreases. Violence increased 44 percent.

Claimed Pre-2022 National Election Decreases in Violent Crime From The FBI

Violent crime decreased by a marginal amount in 2022 but most of the FBI crime categories increased, not decreased. The media only reported a slight overall decrease.

Claimed Pre-2022 National Election Decreases in Violent Crime From The National Crime Victimization Survey

The National Crime Victimization Survey clearly articulated big increases for groups “but” they never acknowledged that violence increased by 44 percent. That finding came from independent analysts. 

Claimed Pre-2021 Midterm National Election Decreases In Violent Crime From BJS

The Bureau of Justice Statistics press release “and” summation report “and” the full report in late September of 2022 start off with “from 1993 to 2021, the rate of violent victimization declined from 79.8 to 16.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.”

While statistically correct, people want to know what’s happening now (or in recent years) considering that crime issues are constantly in the news (i.e., a 50 percent increase in homicides and a roughly 36% increase in aggravated assaults from 2019-2022 in cities).

Data from BJS for 2021 indicated that violence (and serious violence) in urban areas increased in 2021 and should have been the lead.

But both the FBI and the National Crime Victimization Survey suggest that violent crime was flat in 2021 when many additional sources insist that violence increased considerably for 2021.

Claimed Pre-2020 National Election Decreases In Violent Crime From The FBI And The National Crime Victimization Survey

Both the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics released data before the presidential election in 2020 indicating that violence decreased. Both clarified via emails that there were definitional issues and that violence did not decrease.

Both claimed decreases in crime via their latest reports in the fall of 2020, the FBI for the first six months of 2020 via their September 15, 2020 press release, and the Bureau of Justice Statistics for all of 2019 via their September 14, 2020 press release.

Clarifications via email from both agencies suggest that violent crime was essentially flat for 2019 (National Crime Victimization Survey) and for the first six months of 2020 via the FBI.

The Bureau of Justice Statistics claimed decreases in violence for 2019 via Criminal Victimization 2020.

15.

2017 DOJ Report-Repeat Victimization 50 Percent of All Violent Victimization

From 2005 to 2014, an average of 3.2 million persons age 12 or older experienced one or more nonfatal violent victimizations each year per the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

About 1 in 5 of these victims (19 percent) experienced repeat victimization, defined as two or more violent victimizations during the year.

Repeat victims accounted for a disproportionate percentage of all violent victimizations that occurred each year.

In 2014, 19 percent of violent crime victims who experienced repeat victimization accounted for 50 percent of all violent victimizations, Bureau Of Justice Statistics.

Just note that repeat victimizations “are” individual crimes even though they may happen to the same crime victims. Also, note that hardly anyone has used this data.

16.

FBI and National Crime Victimization Survey Data Plus Links

Brief Summation-FBI-Crimes Reported To Law Enforcement Based On Final-Official Reports-Focus Is On Violent Crime

• Preliminary six-month data for 2024 from the FBI is available on page 3.
• 2023-Violent crime decreased 3.0%. Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded a 2023 estimated nationwide decrease of 11.6%. The rape category saw an estimated 9.4% decrease. Aggravated assault decreased an estimated 2.8%. Robbery showed a decrease of 0.3%. Hate crime incidents decreased 0.6%. Property crime was down by 2.4 percent. 
• 2022–The FBI offers 12 categories of crimes (13 including hate crimes). Four categories decreased, six categories increased and one (burglary) was flat. Hate crimes increased. The FBI’s crime statistics estimates for 2022 show that national violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7% in 2022 compared to 2021 estimates. Murder decreased 6.1%
• 2021-Homicides increased 4.3 percent in 2021. Rapes also increased. Overall violence in the nation was flat.
• 2020-The number of homicides increased by nearly 30% from 2019. In 2020, violent crime was up 5.6 percent.
• 2019-Violent crime was flat ( decreased 0.5 percent) for 2019.
• 2018-Violent crime decreased by 3.3 percent for 2018.
• 2017-Violent crimes decreased by 0.2 percent in 2017.
• 2016-Violent crime increased in 2016.
• 2015-Violent crime increased in 2015.
• 2013-2014-Violent crime decreased in 2013 and 2014.
• 2012-Lowest murder rate since 1960 but violent crime increased in 2012.

Brief Summation-National Crime Victimization Survey-Focus Is On Violent Crime

• 2022 and 2023 violent crime statistics were virtually unchanged. A 44 percent increase in violent crime per researchers. The violent victimization rate increased from 16.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons in 2021 to 23.5 per 1,000 in 2022. The rate of property victimization in 2022 was 101.9 victimizations per 1,000 households, higher than the rate in 2021 (90.3 per 1,000).
• 2021-The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) states that the violent victimization rate increased from 19.0 to 24.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons in urban areas while remaining unchanged in suburban or rural areas. The rate of serious violent victimization in urban areas also increased. Overall violence for the nation was flat.
• 2020-The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) states that the violent victimization rate dropped 22 percent in 2020.
• 2019- There was no statistically significant change in number or rate of total violent victimizations from 2018 to 2019 including simple assault. The National Crime Victimization Survey states the rate of violent crime excluding simple assault declined 15% for 2019. However, new data from Criminal Victimization-2020 indicates that the numbers and rates for violent crime decreased in 2019, contradicting what they previously said.
• 2018-Violent Crime: From 2015 to 2018, the total number of violent victimizations increased by 28%. The rate of total violent victimizations also increased. The number of violent incidents increased from 5.2 million in 2017 to 6.0 million in 2018. Serious violent crime increases. Property crime continues to decrease.
• 2017-For the second straight year, the number of victims of violent crime was higher than in 2015. Most of the sixteen categories of violent crime rates increased from 2015 to 2017. Some were flat. Three decreased. Property crime decreased.
• 2016-Categories of violent crime increased. Property crime increased for the first time since 2013. There was no statistically significant change in the rate of overall violent crime from 2015, yet the rate increased (18.6 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older) to 2016 (19.7 per 1,000).
• 2015-Violent crime flat, property crime decreased.
• 2014-Violent and property crime declined.
• 2013-Violent and property crime declined.
• 2011-2012-The violent crime rate had declined for nearly two decades before increasing in 2011 and 2012.

17.

FBI-Crimes Reported to Police-Extended Summary of Recent Years Based On Final-Official Reports-Focus Is On Violent Crime

2024: Preliminary six-month data for 2024 from the FBI is available on page 4.

2023: The FBI’s crime statistics estimates, based on reported data for 2023, show that national violent crime decreased an estimated 3.0% in 2023 compared to 2022 estimates.  Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded a 2023 estimated nationwide decrease of 11.6% compared to the previous year.  In 2023, the estimated number of offenses in the revised rape category saw an estimated 9.4% decrease.  Aggravated assault figures decreased an estimated 2.8% in 2023. Robbery showed an estimated decrease of 0.3% nationally.  Reported hate crime incidents decreased 0.6% from 10,687 in 2022 to 10,627 in 2023. There was an overall decrease in property crime of 2.4%. Burglary decreased 7.6%. Larceny decreased 4.4%. Motor Vehicle Theft increased 12.6%.

 2022: The FBI offers 12 categories of crimes (13 including hate crimes). Four categories decreased, six categories increased and one (burglary) was flat. Hate crimes increased. The FBI’s crime statistics estimates for 2022 show that national violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7% in 2022 compared to 2021 estimates. Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded a 2022 estimated nationwide decrease of 6.1% compared to the previous year. In 2022, the estimated number of offenses in the revised rape category saw an estimated 5.4% decrease. Aggravated assault in 2022 decreased an estimated 1.1% in 2022. Robbery showed an estimated increase of 1.3% nationally. The property crime rate increased considerably for the first time since 2012. The rate of arson increased considerably. The rate for burglaries was flat. The rate for larcenies-thefts increased The rate of motor vehicle thefts increased considerably. The FBI reported a 6.9% increase in hate crimes from 2021 to 2022 and a rise in law enforcement participating in reporting, Axios. Associated Press-The Estimated Number Of juvenile Victims Of Fatal Gun Violence Rose 11.8 Percent

2021: Based on 52 percent of law enforcement agencies providing a full year of data for the FBI’s new National Incident-Based Reporting System, overall, the analysis shows violent and property crimes remained consistent between 2020 and 2021. While the aggregate estimated violent crime volume decreased 1% for the nation from 1,326,600 in 2020 to 1,313,200 in 2021, the estimated number of murders increased from 22,000 in 2020 to 22,900 in 2021. The increase in murders constitutes a 4.3% increase. The robbery rate decreased 8.9% from 2020 to 2021, which heavily contributed to the decrease in overall violent crime despite increases in murder and rape rates at the national level.

2020: Per FBI final statistics released in September 2021, the number of homicides increased nearly 30% from 2019, a total not seen since the mid-1990s.In 2020, violent crime was up 5.6 percent from the 2019 number. The estimated number of aggravated assault offenses rose 12.1 percent, and the volume of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter offenses increased 29.4 percent. The estimated number of robbery offenses fell 9.3 percent and the estimated volume of rape (revised definition) offenses decreased 12.0 percent. Property crimes continued to decrease. Motor vehicle thefts rose 11.8 percent.

2019: For all of 2019, violent crime was flat (-0.5 percent) and property crime was down 4.1 percent. The violent crime rate was down 1.0 percent and the property crime rate was down 4.5 percent. Aggravated assaults (the vast majority of reported violent crimes) were up 1.3 percent. Homicides were flat-up 0.3 percent.

2018: Violent crime declined 3.3 percent between 2017 and 2018. Property crime decreased 6.3 percent during the same time period

2017: After two consecutive years of increases, the estimated number of violent crimes in the nation decreased by 0.2 percent in 2017 when compared with 2016 data, according to FBI figures. Property crimes dropped 3.0 percent, marking the 15th consecutive year the collective estimates for these offenses declined.

2016: For all of 2016, the estimated number of violent crimes in the nation increased for the second straight year, rising 4.1 percent in 2016 when compared with 2015 data, according to FBI figures. Property crimes dropped 1.3 percent, marking the 14th consecutive year the collective estimates for these offenses declined.

In 2016, there were an estimated 1,248,185 violent crimes. Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter offenses increased by 8.6 percent when compared with estimates from 2015. Aggravated assault and rape (legacy definition) offenses increased 5.1 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively, and robbery increased 1.2 percent.

2015: After two years of decline (reported crime was mostly flat in 2014 with a slight decrease), the estimated number of violent crimes in the nation increased 3.9 percent in 2015 when compared with 2014 data, according to FBI figures. Property crimes dropped 2.6 percent, marking the thirteenth straight year the collective estimates for these offenses declined.

In 2015, there were an estimated 1,197,704 violent crimes. Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter increased 10.8 percent when compared with estimates from 2014. Rape (legacy definition) and aggravated assault increased 6.3 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively, while robbery increased 1.4 percent.

2014: The FBI reports preliminary figures indicating that law enforcement agencies throughout the nation showed an overall decrease of 4.6 percent in the number of violent crimes for the first 6 months of 2014 when compared with figures reported for the same time in 2013. The violent crime category includes murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. The number of property crimes in the United States from January to June of 2014 decreased by 7.5 percent when compared with data for the same time period in 2013.

However, when the FBI released its full report for 2014, the estimated number of violent crimes in the nation decreased by 0.2 percent in 2014 when compared with 2013 data. Aggravated assaults and rapes increased. Property crimes decreased by 4.3 percent, marking the 12th straight year the collective estimates for these offenses declined. Based on the full report in 2014, and with endless news reports documenting increases in homicide and violence in cities throughout the country, we predicted an increase in violent crime for 2015. See Crime in America.

2013: Per the FBI, the estimated number of violent crimes in 2013 decreased by 4.4 percent when compared with 2012 figures, and the estimated number of property crimes decreased by 4.1 percent. There were an estimated 1,163,146 violent crimes reported to law enforcement last year, along with an estimated 8,632,512 property crimes. Property crimes decreased 4.1 percent in 2013, marking the 11th straight year the collective estimates for these offenses declined.

2012: The FBI estimated that in 2012 the number of violent crimes increased by 0.7 percent. However, property crimes decreased 0.9 percent, marking the tenth straight year of declines for these offenses, collectively.

National Crime Victimization Survey-Extended Summary of Recent Years-Focus Is On Violent Crime 

2022-2023: Violent crime increased by 44 percent, the largest crime increase ever recorded.

Violent and property crime was essentially unchanged for the two years. 

The violent victimization rate increased from 16.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons in 2021 to 23.5 per 1,000 in 2022. There were 6.6 million violent victimizations of persons age 12 or older in the United States in 2022, up from 4.6 million in 2021. Many groups (see below) had very large percentage increases in violent victimization. Households in the United States experienced 13.4 million property victimizations in 2022, up from 11.7 million in 2021. The rate of property victimization in 2022 was 101.9 victimizations per 1,000 households, higher than the rate in 2021 (90.3 per 1,000). In 2022, about 2 in 5 (42%) violent victimizations were reported to police. Motor vehicle theft victimization increased from a rate of 4.3 victimizations per 1,000 households in 2021 to 5.5 per 1,000 in 2022. About 10% of violent victimizations involved a firearm in 2022, an increase from 2021 (7%). In 2022, about 1.24% (3.5 million) of persons age 12 or older nationwide experienced at least one violent crime.

2021: From 2020 to 2021, the violent victimization rate increased from 19.0 to 24.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons in urban areas while remaining unchanged in suburban or rural areas. The rate of serious (excluding common assaults) violent victimization in urban areas increased. The overall violent victimization rate did not change between 2020 and 2021. In 2021, about 0.98% (2.7 million) of persons age 12 or older nationwide experienced at least one violent crime. About 6.25% (8.1 million) of households in the country experienced one or more property victimizations (burglary or trespassing, motor vehicle theft, or other household theft). The rate of property victimization in 2021 was 90.3 victimizations per 1,000 households, which was not statistically different from the 2020 rate.

2020: The violent victimization rate dropped 22 percent in 2020. This is the largest decrease in violence ever reported by the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). The violent victimization rate declined from 21.0 per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in 2019 to 16.4 per 1,000 in 2020. The number of violent crimes, excluding simple assault, fell from 2.0 million in 2019 to 1.6 million in 2020.

2019: There was no statistically significant change in number or rate of total violent victimization from 2018 to 2019 including simple assault. The National Crime Victimization Survey states the rate of violent crime excluding simple assault declined 15% for 2019. However, new data from Criminal Victimization-2020 indicates that the numbers and rates for violent crime decreased in 2019, contradicting what they previously said.

2018: Violent Crime: From 2015 to 2018, the total number of violent victimizations increased by 28%. The rate of total violent victimizations also increased. The number of violent incidents increased from 5.2 million in 2017 to 6.0 million in 2018. Property crime continues to decrease. Serious violent crime increased.

2017: For the National Crime Survey (released in December of 2018) most of the sixteen categories of violent crime rates increased from 2015 to 2017. Some were flat. Three decreased. There was no statistically significant increase from 2016 to 2017 in the number of residents who had been victims of violent crime, while there was a statistically significant increase from 2015 to 2017. For the second straight year, the number of victims of violent crime was higher than in 2015. The number of persons age 12 or older who had been victims of violent crime rose from 2.7 million in 2015 to 2.9 million in 2016 (up 9 percent from 2015) and 3.1 million in 2017 (up 17 percent from 2015). The 2-year increase in the number of violent-crime victims was 455,700.

2016: Based on revised estimates (released on October 18, 2018) from the National Crime Victimization Survey, from 2015 to 2016, violent criminal victimizations increased for a variety of categories. Property crime increased for the first time since 2013. The revised estimates replace previously released 2016 estimates that did not permit year-to-year comparisons. From 2015 to 2016, the number of persons experiencing one or more violent victimizations increased from 2.7 million to 2.9 million. From 2015 to 2016, the number of violent crimes increased from 5,006,620 to 5,353,820. There was no statistically significant change in the rate of overall violent crime from 2015, yet the rate increased (18.6 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older) to 2016 (19.7 per 1,000).

2015: there was no statistically significant change in the overall rate of violent crime, per the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). The rate of violent victimization was 18.6 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in 2015.

2014: Violent crime rates decreased from 2013 (23.2 victimizations per 1,000) to 20.1 per 1,000 in 2014. The overall property crime rate (which includes household burglary, theft, and motor vehicle theft) decreased from 131.4 victimizations per 1,000 households in 2013 to 118.1 victimizations per 1,000 in 2014.

In 2013: The overall violent crime rate declined slightly from 26.1 to 23.2 victimizations per 1,000 U.S. residents from 2012 to 2013, per the Justice Department’s Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). The violent crime rate had declined for nearly two decades before increasing in 2011 and 2012. The overall property crime rate, which includes burglary, theft, and motor vehicle theft, also decreased after two consecutive years of increases. From 2012 to 2013, the rate declined from 155.8 to 131.4 victimizations per 1,000 U.S. households.

In 2012: For the second consecutive year, violent and property crime rates increased. The overall violent crime rate (which includes rape or sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated and simple assault) rose from 22.6 victimizations per 1,000 persons in 2011 to 26.1 in 2012

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Links For The Latest Data Involving Crimes Reported To Law Enforcement Agencies (through the FBI) Includes FBI  Press Releases

Note: Crime Data From The FBI Is Now Located In Their New National Crime Data Explorer.

• FBI Press Release for 2023
• FBI Press Release for 2022
• FBI Press Release for 2021
• FBI Final Crime Statistics for 2020
• https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel/press-releases/overview-of-preliminary-uniform-crime-report-january-june-2020
• https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel/press-releases/fbi-releases-2019-crime-statistics
• https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2018-crime-statistics-released-093019
• https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel/press-releases/fbi-releases-preliminary-semiannual-crime-statistics-for-2018
• https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel/press-releases/fbi-releases-2017-crime-statistics
• https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2017-preliminary-semiannual-crime-stats-released
• https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel/press-releases/fbi-releases-2016-crime-statistics
• https://ucr.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/preliminary-semiannual-uniform-crime-report-januaryjune-2016
• https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/resource-pages/2015-cius-summary_final
• https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel/press-releases/fbi-releases-preliminary-semiannual-crime-statistics-for-2015
• https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel/press-releases/fbi-releases-2014-crime-statistics
• http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/preliminary-semiannual-uniform-crime-report-january-june-2014
• http://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel/press-releases/fbi-releases-2013-crime-statistics
• http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/crime-in-the-u.s.-2012/fbi-releases-2012-crime-statistics
• http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/fbi-releases-2011-crime-statistics

Links For The Latest Data From The National Crime Victimization Survey

• The complete list of the “Criminal Victimization” series (1993 to today) is available at the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

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Gallup Data On Crime

There are three traditional sources for violence and crime in the U.S., the FBI’s Crime Reports, The Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Survey, and Gallup.

See the “Fear of Crime” section. Per Gallup, fear of crime is at record levels.

There are endless additional sources on crime (Pew, the CDC, the federal Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, private research firms, and many others) that are used throughout this report but our focus is on the data most refer to when discussing crime. Some of the references below are dated but it’s good to be exposed to a partial history of their crime findings.

Gallup’s historical crime data is a good starting point.

Gallup has an array of crime data in one place.

Gallup in 2023-A 58% majority of Americans think the U.S. criminal justice system is not tough enough in its handling of crime, marking a sharp reversal from the prior reading in 2020 when a record-low 41% said the same. Another 26% of U.S. adults currently say the system is about right, while 14% think it is too tough.

Gallup in 2024-U.S. Confidence in Institutions Mostly Flat, but Police Up.

Per Gallup (October 2021), There is a big increase in the criminal victimization of urban households in 2021, 30 percent compared to 22 percent in 2020. Seven percent of urban residents were violently victimized compared to 3% of U.S. adults. The majority of Americans live in urban areas. The collective data (urban crime victimization-computer crime) indicates a growing crime problem for at least half of American households, Gallup.

Per Gallup (February 2020), “Each year since 2017, 15% of U.S. adults have indicated they were victimized by crime in the past year. A subset of that, between 1% and 3%, have reported being the victim of a violent crime.” One percent of Americans were victimized by violent crime in 2016. That tripled to three percent in 2019. 2019 is the first year where violent crime reached three percent, Gallup.

Per Gallup (November 2016) Americans’ direct experience with crime is at a 16-year high, consistent with a gradual increase — from 22% in 2001 to 29% today — in the percentage saying that they or a household member was the victim of a robbery, vandalism or violent crime in the past year, see Gallup-Crime.

Per Gallup-Household crime was at its highest point since 2001.

Gallup offered their November 2017 report which addressed personal and household crime, Asked about their own experiences rather than the situation for their household as a whole, 15% of U.S. adults say they have been the victim of at least one of the crimes studied.

For personal crime, that is an insignificant drop of one percentage point from last year’s 16%.

Twenty-two percent of Americans say a conventional crime was committed against their household in the previous 12 months, the lowest proportion since 2001, see Gallup-Crime-2017.

So within two years, we have both the highest and lowest measures of household crime but an insignificant drop in personal crime.

Are most Americans victimized by crime yearly? Per Gallup, (2016) beyond the 29 percent of households victimized by violent and property crimes, 27 percent of households had their credit card stolen by hackers and 17 percent of households were victims of identity theft.

Gallup refers to these figures as a direct experience with crime.

Per Gallup (2021) beyond the 23 percent of households victimized by violent and property crimes, 28 percent of households had their credit card stolen by hackers and 17 percent were victims of identity theft.

Suppose you combine violent and property crime with cybercrime and identity theft (via the new numbers from The Bureau of Justice Statistics). In that case, most Americans may be victimized by crime every year which may partially explain why we are at record levels of fear of crime.  Note that repeat victimizations need to be considered when considering that possibility.

Gallup also states that in 2023, 52 percent of American Households have firearms.

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Three National Measures of Violence-The FBI, the National Crime Victimization Survey And Gallup

The average person simply wants to know if crime went up or down, but the answer is confusing due to two measures used (victimization surveys via the National Crime Victimization Survey) and crimes reported to police via the Uniform Crime Report-National Incident-Based Reporting System from the FBI). A variety of data is presented above for your consideration.

Both the National Crime Victimization Survey and the Uniform Crime Report are products of two agencies within the US Department of Justice, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and the Bureau of Justice Statistics. The two measures are partially explained below.

There are an endless number of violent crimes that are not reported, 45 percent in 2023,  (thus the need for the National Crime Victimization Survey) because participants see the event as a private matter, or not serious enough to report to the police. For example, a friend could hit you with a beer bottle (a violent crime involving a weapon) but you have no intention of reporting it to law enforcement.

But if you were contacted by the National Crime Victimization Survey, they will ask if you were the victim of an act of violence or if anyone used a weapon or object to attack you.

Most violent and property crimes are not reported to the police, thus the majority of violent and property crime victims do not want police involvement or do not see it as being in their best interest to report the incident, or do not believe that law enforcement can do anything about the incident, or are too afraid to report.

Some simplify the two measures by suggesting that crimes reported to law enforcement through the FBI are a measure of events crime victims deem serious (serious enough to report) versus a measure of all crime (regardless of significance) through the National Crime Victimization Survey.

There is, however, a third source for crime information from Gallup accessing individuals, households, and fear of crime.  However, most crime discussions focus on the two reports from the Department of Justice.

Note that the FBI is transitioning to the National Incident-Based Reporting System which will provide more detail and higher quality information on criminal activity in the United States. They are having problems with the number of law enforcement agencies reporting their data in the new format, but the percentage of participating police agencies is increasing. The current question is whether law enforcement agencies are submitting a full year’s worth of data.

See Violence Increases-National Incident-Based Reporting System for additional information.

See The Office Of Justice Programs for an official overview of the topics addressed above.

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Appendix-Crime Articles From Media Sources

Why offer data from media reports? Most of what the public is exposed to regarding crime does not come from official sources. It comes from the media. 

However, it seems that many media outlets have reduced their reports analyzing crime based on independent research. The number of experienced reporters, especially for newspapers, has declined significantly. This applies to the number of experienced crime reporters.

I intended to delete this section but I decided to place it into an appendix to see what the future holds. I try to stay away from national election news.

Data From Media Reports-2023-2024

In 2024, there are a wide array of media reports covering crime reductions in individual cities. Several are citing reductions in homicides. Few (if any) provide a research perspective as to why.

Many suggest an array of interventions (i.e., violence interrupters) without independent research to substantiate their claims. Police officials often cite proactive policing as reasons for reductions, and there is a literature review funded by the US Department of Justice that documents success through that modality.

Please note, however, that the Major Cities Chiefs Association stated that homicides in cities rose 50 percent and aggravated assaults increased 36 percent from 2019-2022 thus decreases in 2023 via the latest official USDOJ reports, and decreases in cities, may be nothing more than a regression to the mean or average. Crime goes up or down for reasons we cannot comprehend without independent, well-done data.

Also, note that there are cities still struggling with crime. The section above from the Major Cities Chiefs Association allows you to click on their cities measured and see, by individual categories, what cities are up or down as to crime numbers.

Associated Press: Californians’ crime concerns put pressure on criminal justice reform and progressive DAs

ABC News: US stats show violent crime dramatically falling, so why is there a rising clash with perception? Note that there are many similar articles on this topic.

USA Today: Big-city crime is down, but not in Memphis. A coalition of America’s Black mayors will look for answers. Black males in America were eight times more likely to die by homicide and Black females were four times more likely to die the same way in 2020 and 2021 than their white counterparts.

Politico: California Democrats bring down the hammer on crime — or try to.

Boston Globe: Study highlights how nighttime gun violence impacts sleep for residents in Boston, other cities

Crime Data From Media Reports-2022 

Remember that officially, violent crime decreased slightly in 2022 per the FBI, and the National Crime Victimization Survey offers huge increases for violent crime for groups with Jeff Asher and The Marshall Project stating that violence rose 44 percent in 2022. Per the FBI, homicides decreased by 6 percent.

The Marshall Project: There are continuing signs that murder rates are falling in some U.S. cities. Preliminary data suggests homicides were down 30% in Los Angeles, 11% in Chicago, and 19% in New York City in the first two months of this year. Sentencing Law And Policy Editor’s note: that’s not the case for Washington, D.C., and several other cities.

The Crime Report: The number of homicides and gun assaults began to fall in the first six months of 2022, but they still remain at a troubling high level, according to a cautious analysis released by the Council on Criminal Justice. A study of about two dozen cities where overall crime data was available showed that the number of murders dropped by 2 percent between January and June of this year, compared to the same period in 2021. That amounted to a decrease of 54 homicides, researchers said. They pointed out that aggravated assault numbers in the cities under review still rose by 4 percent, and robberies spiked by 19 percent. It is not clear whether they indicate a definitive reversal of what the researchers acknowledge was a “historic” 30 percent increase in murders between  2019 and 2020. At the same time, nearly all categories of nonviolent theft have increased: residential burglaries, up 6 percent; nonresidential burglaries, up 8 percent; larcenies, up by a striking 20 percent; and motor vehicle thefts, up 15 percent.

The Crime Report: Nationwide, shootings are down four percent this year compared to the same time last year, with murders in big cities down three percent, potentially making this the first year since 2018 in which the numbers fell in the U.S. reports the New York Times.

Axios And The Major Cities Chiefs Association: Homicides in major U.S. cities are dropping in 2022, but total violent crime continues to rise, according to a midyear survey of large law enforcement agencies. Why it matters: The annual midyear survey shows that violent crime rates still haven’t returned to pre-pandemic levels, but homicides and rapes in some cities appear to be falling. By the numbers: Overall violent crime spiked 4.2% from Jan. 1 to June 30, 2022, compared to the same period as last year, the survey by the Major Cities Chiefs Association found.

• Robbery skyrocketed by nearly 12% and aggravated assaults increased by around 3%, the survey of 70 agencies found.
• Homicides decreased by 2.4% and rapes fell by 5% in major cities, offering hope that some of the most violent crimes might be leveling off from significant increases in 2020, as reported to the FBI.

See the data from the Major Cities Chiefs Association here.

Yes, but: Compared to 2019 midyear figures, the same cities in total have experienced a 50% increase in homicides and a roughly 36% increase in aggravated assaults.

Substack: Murder in the United States rose at the fastest pace ever recorded in 2020 and it rose again in 2021, but murder is likely falling nationally 2022. Publicly available shooting data from two dozen cities suggests the decline in murder is being driven by gun violence dropping in many cities with a handful of places seeing sharp declines.

CNN: New York Police Department data shows that since January, NYC has seen an over 17% drop in shootings and an over 12% drop in homicides. However, an NYPD crime statistics report also notes that as of December 18, overall crime this year in major categories (including murder, rape, robbery, assault, burglary, and grand larceny) has increased by 23.5% since last year.

From USA Today: It’s widely known the U.S. doesn’t have reliable federal data on crime trends. But a new report out Thursday aims to provide a snapshot of what happened in dozens of the nation’s largest cities last year. Homicides and gun assaults in those cities fell in 2022. At the same time, robberies and property crimes rose, and motor vehicle thefts and carjackings continued to trend upward, according to the report from the Council on Criminal Justice.

Crime Data From Media Reports-2021

We have statistics from the FBI for 2021 and the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey for 2021 stating that overall violent crime in the nation did not increase. However, all indications from news reports indicate a growing problem with homicides and other forms of violent crime.

Pew: Children and Teens Killed by Gunfire in the US Increased 50%. The number of children and teens killed by gunfire in the United States increased 50% between 2019 and 2021, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of the latest annual mortality statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). In 2021, 46% of all gun deaths among children and teens involved Black victims, even though only 14% of the U.S. under-18 population that year was Black. Homicide was the largest single category of gun deaths among children and teens in 2021, accounting for 60% of the total that year.

CNN: A Record Number Of People Are Dying From Firearm Injuries.A record number of people are dying from firearm injuries in the US, and new research suggests that shootings are becoming more lethal, too. Most victims of fatal firearm injuries die at the scene of the shooting, before they can be treated in a health care setting. But that has become increasingly common over the past two decades. About 57% of firearm fatalities in 2021 occurred at the scene of the shooting, up 9% since 1999, according to a research letter published Wednesday in the JAMA Surgery journal. For this analysis, researchers used data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and excluded suicides and other self-inflicted firearm injuries. Nearly 49,000 people died from firearm injuries in the US in 2021, CDC data shows – an unprecedented surge of about 23% over two years during the Covid-19 pandemic.

CBS: Homicides in major American cities ticked up in 2021, with a 5% increase from 2020 and a 44% increase over 2019.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi blasted an “attitude of lawlessness” across the country Wednesday, decrying a recent surge in smash-and-grab crimes – particularly in her hometown of San Francisco – but refusing to admit it stems from police funding cuts and bail reform measures pushed by left-wing lawmakers. “It’s absolutely outrageous,” Pelosi (D-Calif.) said when asked about the crime spike. “It must be stopped, and it’s not just San Francisco,” Pelosi emphasized. “It’s in our entire country,” NY Post, (rearranged quotes).

Gallup: There is a big increase in the criminal victimization of urban households in 2021, 30 percent compared to 22 percent in 2020. Seven percent of urban residents were violently victimized compared to 3% of U.S. adults. The majority of Americans live in urban areas. The collective data (urban crime victimization-computer crime) indicates a growing crime problem for at least half of American households, Gallup.

CNN: So far, 2021 is on pace to be the worst year for gun violence in decades, surpassing even the high levels last year. More than two-thirds of the country’s most populous cities have seen more homicides in 2021 than last year, a continuation of the troubling increase in homicides that began at the onset of the pandemic in 2020, according to a CNN analysis of over 40 major cities, CNN.

Gun Violence: According to the Gun Violence Archive, from January 1 to September 15, a total of 14,516 people died from gun violence in the US. That’s 1,300 more than during the same period in 2020, a 9% increase. Mass shootings are also on the rise. Through September 15, there have been 498 mass shootings across the US, or an average of about 1.92 per day. That’s 15% higher than last year, when there were a total of 611, a rate of 1.67 per day, according to data from the GVA.

Police Executive Research Forum: According to a survey of 157 police agencies by the Police Executive Research Forum, the total number of homicides increased by 12 percent in the first nine months of 2021, compared to the same period in 2020. That represented more than half the increase recorded in a similar period between 2020 and 2019. Hijackings also increased and robberies continued to decline. The Crime Report

Centers For Disease Control: CDC researchers estimated that there were over 20,000 firearm homicides and over 26,000 firearm suicides in the United States in 2021. The firearm homicide rate was 8.3% higher in 2021 than it was in 2020 per CNN.

COVID and Crime: During the first quarter of 2021, homicide rates declined from their peak in the summer of 2020, but remained above levels in the first quarter of prior years. The number of homicides rose by 24% compared to the first quarter of 2020 (an increase of 193 homicides) and by 49% compared to the first quarter of 2019 (an increase of 324 homicides).

Aggravated and gun assault rates were also higher in the first quarter of 2021 than in the same period of 2020. Aggravated assault rates increased by 7 percent, while gun assault rates went up by 22 percent, COVID and Crime.

Reuters: In the first quarter of 2021, the research showed, the murder rate had declined from a peak the previous summer but was still up 24 percent over the first quarter of 2020, Reuters.

Council on Criminal Justice: This year, the number of casualties, along with the overall number of shootings that have killed or injured at least one person, exceeds those of the first five months of 2020, which finished as the deadliest year of gun violence in at least two decades.

The number of homicides increased by 16% during the first half of 2021 – 259 more homicides – compared to the same period the year before, and by 42% – claiming an additional 548 additional lives – compared to the same time frame in 2019. The increase in homicide slowed between the first and second quarters of 2021.

The aggravated assault rate was 9% higher in the first half of 2021 than during the same period in 2020, and the gun assault rate was 5% higher in the first half of 2021 than the year before. Motor vehicle theft rates were 21% higher in the first half of 2021 than the year before.

Other major crimes declined. Robbery (-6%), residential burglary (-9%), nonresidential burglary (-9%), larceny (-6%), and drug offense (-12%) rates dropped from the same period in 2020, Council on Criminal Justice.

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See More

See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.

Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.

US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.

National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.

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