Criminal Histories And Recidivism Of Armed Career Criminals

Highlights

The overwhelming majority of armed career criminals had prior convictions for violent offenses.

The article is part of an ongoing series addressing repeat-violent-career criminals.

Author

Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.

Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of directing award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of criminology and public affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University. Former police officer. Aspiring drummer.

Article

The data below is from the United States Sentencing Commission addressing repeat-violent federal offenders. The lessons are equally applicable to state criminals.

There are vast differences between federal and state justice systems (explained below).

The report is an overview of the worst of the worst; inmates falling under the federal Armed Career Criminal Act.

Armed Career Criminal Act Stipulations

The ACCA requires a 15-year mandatory minimum term of imprisonment for offenders who have three or more prior convictions for a “violent felony,” a “serious drug offense,” or both.

Section 922(g) criminalizes the possession, receipt, or transport of a firearm by certain prohibited persons.

Prediction Of Future Criminality

The US Sentencing Commission (among many others) has found that criminal history (and violent criminal history) strongly predict future criminality and reincarceration, Federal And State Recidivism.

No Parole For Federal Offenders

Federal offenders serve 85 percent of their sentence (except for those who predate the law in 2000).

State inmates serve shorter sentences with smaller percentages of time served. Most state violent offenders serve less than three years, Violent Offenders.

US Sentencing Commission (edits for brevity-reliability)

The Commission provides information on offenders sentenced under the federal Armed Career Criminal Act (ACCA).

It provides an overview of the ACCA and its implementation. It also includes information on offender and offense characteristics, criminal histories, and recidivism of armed career criminals.

Armed career criminals receive substantial sentences. Offenders who were subject to the ACCA’s 15-year mandatory minimum penalty at sentencing received an average sentence of 206 months in fiscal year 2019.

Armed career criminals have extensive criminal histories. Even prior to application of the armed career criminal guideline, 90.4 percent of armed career criminals qualified for the three most serious Criminal History Categories under federal sentencing guidelines, and almost half (49.4%) qualified for Criminal History Category VI, the most serious category under the guidelines.

The overwhelming majority of armed career criminals had prior convictions for violent offenses.

In fiscal year 2019, 83.7 percent of armed career criminals had prior convictions for violent offenses, including 57.7 percent who had three or more such convictions (emphasis added).

Despite the predominance of violence in their criminal history, the most common prior conviction for armed career criminals was for public order offenses, with 85.3 percent having at least one such prior conviction.

More than half (59.0%) of armed career criminals released into the community between 2009 and 2011 were rearrested within an eight-year follow-up period.

When armed career criminals recidivated, their median time to rearrest was 16 months and the most serious common new offense was assault (28.2%).

Recidivism rates of armed career criminals varied depending on whether they had prior convictions for violent offenses and the number of such prior convictions.

Nearly two-thirds (62.5%) of armed career criminals with prior violent convictions and no prior drug trafficking convictions, and more than half (55.0%) of armed career criminals with both prior violent and drug trafficking convictions were rearrested within the eight-year follow-up period.

In comparison, only 36.4 percent of armed career criminals with prior drug trafficking convictions and no prior violent convictions were rearrested during the study period, but there were only 12 such offenders.

Furthermore, 61.7 percent of armed career criminals with three or more prior violent convictions were rearrested during the eight-year follow-up period compared to 48.9 percent of armed career criminals with one or two prior violent convictions.

Declining Number Of Armed Career Criminals

Armed career criminals consistently comprise a small portion of the federal criminal caseload, representing less than one percent of the federal criminal caseload. During the ten-year study period, the number of armed career criminals decreased by almost half, from 590 in fiscal year 2010 to 312 in fiscal year 2019.

Litigation surrounding the ACCA appears to have impacted the number of armed career criminals sentenced during the time period studied. The provisions in the ACCA generate a great deal of litigation regarding which convictions under federal and state statutes qualify under the Act.

Noteworthy is the litigation culminating in the Supreme Court striking the residual clause as unconstitutionally vague in Johnson v. United States that effectively narrowed the criteria for predicate convictions.

That doesn’t mean that repeat-violent federal offenders are not recipients of long prison sentences.

US Sentencing Commission

Federal and State Justice Systems Are Different

There are considerable differences between the federal and state correctional systems.

There are also differences between the arrest priorities of federal and state law enforcement efforts.

Federal Prisons: Most inmates in the federal prison system serve 85 percent (or more) of longer sentences, which makes an older age upon release a factor in reduced federal recidivism. Federal recidivism is much less than state recidivism. Age plus criminal history are the two primary variables when calculating recidivism.

Drug offenses were the most prevalent offense type of prisoners in federal prison on September 30, 2014.

Prisoners with a drug offense as the most serious commitment offense made up 49% of the federal prison population in 2014, down from 56% in 2004.

The share of violent offenders in federal prisons decreased from 8% in 2004 to 7% in 2014.

Immigration offenders made up 10% of the prison population in 2014, decreasing from 12% of the prison population in 2004.

State Prisons: Inmates in state systems serve shorter percentages of smaller sentences when compared to the federal system.

More than half of all state prisoners were serving sentences for violent offenses (704,800 prisoners or 53%), including 165,600 persons for murder or nonnegligent manslaughter and 166,200 for rape or sexual assault.

Almost 16% of state prisoners were convicted drug offenders (208,000 inmates).

Federal Arrests: 1.9 percent of federal arrests are for violent crimes, 2.1 percent are for sex crimes and 4.2 percent are for weapons offenses. 46 percent are immigration violations and 16 percent are drug crimes.

State Arrests: Nationwide, law enforcement made an estimated 13,120,947 arrests (except traffic violations). Of these arrests, 552,077 were for violent crimes and 1,643,962 were for property crimes.

The highest number of arrests was for drug abuse violations (estimated at 1,638,846 arrests), driving under the influence (estimated at 1,412,223), and larceny-theft (estimated at 1,271,410).

Difference Between Federal And State Inmates

Conclusion

The US Sentencing Commission is a welcome addition to reports offered by the US Department of Justice as to offender characteristics and dispositions. It’s been my experience that US Sentencing Commission reports are easier to comprehend and offer insights unavailable from other sources.

But regardless of the differences between state and federal inmates, the bottom line is that Commission’s data and lessons apply equally to state offenders, especially as it applies to high-risk offenders and future recidivism.

We’ve always known that criminal history, especially violent criminal history, is a strong predictor of future criminality.

For example, per the latest Bureau of Justice Statistics data, 58 percent of state inmates are “currently” in prison for a violent crime. When you consider previous criminal histories for violent crimes (noting that most are plea-bargained to a lesser crime) or for those with multi-repeat arrests and convictions, the 58 percent number for violent state inmates is actually much higher.

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