Highlights
Based on recidivism studies of those released from prisons and those on probation, it’s reasonable to assume that the release of offenders from jails contributed to the considerable increase in violence in 2020 and 2021.
CNN’s experts cited jail releases as one reason for rising crime.
The jail incarceration rate was the lowest since 1990.
About 60% of beds in local jails were occupied at midyear 2020, a decrease from 81% at midyear 2019.
In three weeks, jails have contact with as many people as prisons do in an entire year.
Crime victims become an overlooked casualty of the pandemic (link below).
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of directing award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of criminology and public affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University. Former police officer. Aspiring drummer.
Article
The Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice released a report on the impact of COVID-19 and jail populations.
It states that the jail incarceration rate was the lowest since 1990.
There were large declines in the raw numbers of jail inmates.
CNN Cites Jail Releases As A Factor For Rising Crime
Experts point to a “perfect storm” of factors — economic collapse, social anxiety because of a pandemic, de-policing in major cities after protests that called for abolition of police departments, shifts in police resources from neighborhoods to downtown areas because of those protests, and the release of criminal defendants pretrial or before sentences were completed to reduce risk of Covid-19 spread in jails — all may have contributed to the spike in homicides (emphasis added), CNN.
See another CNN article providing examples as to offenders released from jails, CNN
Jail Numbers
Each year, U.S. jails process an estimated 12 million admissions and releases. That translates into 34,000 people released from jails each day and 230,000 released each week.
In three weeks, jails have contact with as many people as prisons do in an entire year…., US Jails.
In 2019, more than two-thirds (70%) of jail inmates were held for felony charges. In 2019, the weekly inmate turnover rate in local jails nationwide was 53%, with inmates spending an estimated average of 26 days in jail. Bureau Of Justice Statistics.
A Public Health Measure?
I’m not going to second guess state and local health experts and jail administrators. COVID took well over 500,000 lives in America and the number continues to grow. Altering the number of people in jail limits the exposure of inmates and correctional officers (40 jail staff died of COVID during the measurement period).
Jails are not prisons meaning that there is a mix of those convicted and sentenced to jail and those held on a pretrial basis. About 65% (480,700) of jail inmates were awaiting court action on a current charge, while the remaining 35% (253,700) were serving a sentence or awaiting sentencing on a conviction, Bureau Of Justice Statistics.
Those sentenced are generally “minor” offenders (compared to prison inmates) often serving less than one year. Those in jails, however, could (and usually do) have considerable criminal histories.
Per USDOJ data, fifty-eight percent of male state prison inmates are incarcerated for violent crimes. The percentage would be much higher if previous violent crimes are considered.
Most (the vast majority?) of those sentenced to state prisons for crimes of violence were held in jail on a pretrial basis.
Recidivism Or Return To Crime
I’m unaware of USDOJ recidivism data for jail inmates but the research on prisons or probation is concerning.
The most common understanding of recidivism is based on state data from the US Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, stating that two-thirds (68 percent) of prisoners released were arrested for a new crime within three years of release from prison, and three-quarters (77 percent) were arrested within five years.
Within 3 years of release, 49.7% of inmates either had an arrest that resulted in a conviction with a disposition of a prison sentence or were returned to prison without a new conviction because they violated a technical condition of their release, as did 55.1% of inmates within 5 years of release, Federal And State Recidivism.
Recidivism Of Those on Probation
To my knowledge, there is one major and definitive study (based on large numbers of offenders) on state probation recidivism. It focused solely on felony probationers.
Within 3 years 43% of state felons on probation were rearrested for a felony. Half of the arrests were for a violent crime (murder, rape, robbery, or aggravated assault) or a drug offense.
Results showed that within 3 years of sentencing, 62 percent either had a disciplinary hearing for violating a condition of their probation or were arrested for another felony.
In addition, within 3 years, 46 percent had been sent to prison or jail or had absconded, Federal And State Recidivism.
Do Offenders Released From Jail Commit New Crimes?
Based on recidivism data for those released from prison and those on probation, there is no doubt that released jail inmates engage in new criminal activity. But as stated, I’m unaware of data substantiating this.
There are endless media accounts of domestic violence offenders returning home after arrest and re-victimizing their victims.
Increasing Violent Crime And Fear
Violence is skyrocketing in some cities. Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice, violent crime increased 28 percent since 2015 (the year of the Freddie Gray incident and numerous disturbances). Serious violent crime increased. Fear of crime is at an all-time high. Gun purchases are skyrocketing. Security devices are hitting record numbers. People and businesses are leaving cities. A variety of sources have documented a dramatic increase in homicides and other forms of violence, US Crime Rates.
There is new data from the FBI documenting increases in homicides, aggravated assaults, overall violence, and vehicle thefts, Violence Increases In 2020.
There is a new report from CNN and the Major Chiefs Association. It states that homicides increased 33 percent for cities in 2020. Aggravated assaults also increased, Homicides Increase.
The release of jail inmates correlates with recent and substantial violent crime increases post-COVID lockdowns. But as any criminology professor will tell you, correlation does not equal causation.
Bureau of Justice Statistics Report
Local jails in the United States experienced a large decline (down 185,400 inmates) in their inmate populations from June 30, 2019 to June 30, 2020, which can be attributed mainly to the COVID-19 pandemic.
At midyear 2020, jails held 549,100 inmates, down from 734,500 at midyear 2019. The jail incarceration rate of 167 inmates per 100,000 U.S. residents on June 30, 2020 was the lowest since 1990 when it was 163 per 100,000.
The large decline in the overall jail population had a notable effect on the number of inmates held for a misdemeanor, which fell about 45% from midyear 2019 to midyear 2020. This decrease outpaced the 18% decline in inmates held for a felony.
The distribution of inmates by conviction status also changed, due to a 34% decline in convicted inmates compared to a 21% decline in unconvicted inmates. From midyear 2019 to midyear 2020, the female jail population saw a greater decline (down 37%) than the male population (23%).
About 60% of beds in local jails were occupied at midyear 2020, a decrease from 81% at midyear 2019.
From midyear 2019 to midyear 2020, the percentage of occupied beds decreased from 73% to 54% in jails located in counties with the highest confirmed COVID-19 infection rate (1% or more residents with confirmed COVID-19).
Jails in counties with the highest COVID-19 infection rate tested nearly 21% of persons admitted to their jails, and about 14% of these tests were positive.
As for jail staff, nearly 5% (10,850 of 233,220 employees) tested positive for COVID-19 during the 4-month period. About 8% of jail staff working in counties with the highest infection rates tested positive for COVID-19, compared to 1% of jail staff testing positive in counties with the lowest infection rates.
A total of 40 jail staff in 30 jails also died of COVID-19 during this time.
The report, Impact of COVID-19 on the Local Jail Population, January-June 2020 is available on the BJS website at www.bjs.gov.
Conclusions
Based on recidivism studies of those released from prisons and those on probation, it’s reasonable to assume that the vast release of jail offenders contributed to the increase in violence.
CNN’s experts cited jail releases as one reason for rising crime.
Violent backgrounds are common among the offender population regardless if the “current” charge was for a nonviolent crime. As stated, 58 percent of male state prison inmates are serving a “current” conviction for a violent crime.
Many of the remainder have histories of acts of violence. Per USDOJ statistics, the overwhelming percentage of charged offenders are plea-bargained to a lesser crime.
Crime victims, they fear, will become an overlooked casualty of the pandemic, March 17, 2021, The Oregonian.
See More
See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.
Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.
US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.
National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.
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