Highlights
The US Department of Justice issued a press release stating that it wants to reduce incarceration. You can’t do that without releasing or deferring violent offenders.
“Would you commit to cutting incarceration by 50%?” Albert asks Biden. “More than that. We can do it more than that,” he responds.
An estimated 2.2 million arrests occurred among the approximately 409,300 persons released from prison per the Bureau of Justice Statistics. The vast majority of prison inmates are violent with multi-repeat criminal histories.
Violent crime and fear of crime, especially urban violent crime, increased substantially for 2020-2021 per the FBI and Gallup.
Author
Defund The Police Quote
“What went wrong is just stupid wokeness. Don’t just look at Virginia and New Jersey. Look at Long Island, look at Buffalo, look at Minneapolis, even look at Seattle, Wash. I mean, this ‘defund the police’ lunacy, this take Abraham Lincoln’s name off of schools. I mean that — people see that,” Carville said, The Hill.
Opinion
The US Department of Justice issued a press release announcing upcoming initiatives. Full disclosure, I did training and provided technical assistance for the Office of Justice Programs (OJP), the main agency directing the program and research arms for the US Department of Justice.
Quick synopsis of two points from the Office of Justice Programs press release: (edited for brevity)
The grants announced today will support several programs aimed at improving public safety while reducing incarceration (emphasis added) and addressing long-standing racial disparities.
- BJA is awarding $11.8 million under the Justice Reinvestment Initiative: State-level Training and Technical Assistance Program, which will fund training and technical assistance providers to help states implement data-driven strategies to improve public safety by reducing corrections spending (emphasis added) and reinvesting those savings in efforts to decrease crime and strengthen neighborhoods.
- OJJDP is awarding nearly $8 million under the Juvenile Justice System Reform Initiative to help states implement sustainable, research-based and data-informed recidivism reduction policies (emphasis added), practices and programming, and strategically reinvest cost savings in effective prevention and intervention programs.
Are we now moving from a disastrous “defund the police effort” to an equally dubious attempt to “defund corrections”?
If DOJ is about “reinvesting those savings in efforts to decrease crime and strengthen neighborhoods,” it would take multiple billions of dollars of deferred prison spending to accomplish it.
If DOJ is going to “help states implement sustainable, research-based and data-informed recidivism reduction policies,” where are the supportive studies? Per the USDOJ’s own data on adult offenders, rehabilitation programs don’t work.
The DOJ touts a “data-driven” approach to solving problems when EVERY research result is the antithesis of their efforts. Are they disregarding their own data to support an ideology?
Does this initiative have anything to do with promises candidate Biden made to cut correctional populations in half?
Candidate Biden-Cut Prisons By Half
“During his presidential campaign, Joe Biden promised to end private prisons, cash bail, mandatory-minimum sentencing and the death penalty. Candidate Biden also said the U.S. could reduce its prison population by more than half. While he didn’t put forward as progressive or as detailed a platform as many of his competitors for the Democratic nomination (including his running mate Kamala Harris), Biden has nevertheless, quietly, been elected on the most progressive criminal justice platform of any major party candidate in generations. So what can he actually do?” The Marshall Project.
What Mr. Biden Said-Buzzfeed-ACLU
“Would you commit to cutting incarceration by 50%?” Albert asks Biden. “More than that. We can do it more than that,” he responds.
Last month in Concord, New Hampshire, another self-identified ACLU voter asked if Biden would “commit to cutting the prison population overall, and specifically the federal prison population, in half” — a slightly different wording. Biden responded at length about criminal justice policy before telling the woman that he would not commit to reducing the prison population by any percentage target, BuzzFeed.
It’s interesting that per an ACLU article, “This week, Joe Biden also agreed, telling an ACLU volunteer that he would, in fact, commit to reducing incarceration in half and that he’s put together a plan that will go further than 50 percent.”
This quote came after his assertion that he would not commit to a percentage cut. Thus, after taking time to think it over, Biden is still committed to a 50 percent (or more) cut in the prison population, ACLU.
Regardless of how Mr. Biden cuts the US correctional population, a 50 percent reduction has real implications for crime, especially recidivism.
If you are going to be that assertive (“More than that. We can do it more than that”) cutting the US correctional population seems to be a Biden priority. The problem is that released offenders have very high rates of recidivism.
Impact on Public Safety-Recidivism
Recidivism is based on those released from prison who are arrested, convicted or incarcerated once again.
The most common understanding of recidivism is based on state data from the US Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, stating that two-thirds (68 percent) of prisoners released were arrested for a new crime within three years of release from prison, and three-quarters (77 percent) were arrested within five years.
Within 3 years of release, 49.7% of inmates either had an arrest that resulted in a conviction with a disposition of a prison sentence or were returned to prison without a new conviction because they violated a technical condition of their release, as did 55.1% of inmates within 5 years of release, Offender Recidivism. Ten-year data (below) is even higher.
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p class=”entry-title”>Offender Recidivism and Reentry in the United States offers a variety of recidivism data from federal and state sources. There are large categories of released offenders having extremely high rates of rearrests, reconvictions, and reincarcerations. I have seen some groups of released offenders having arrest rates of 85 percent or higher.
The question is whether we should release half or a substantial number of prison inmates if they are almost guaranteed to have a considerable impact on violence and crime?
Recidivism-Ten Years After Release From Prison-Bureau Of Justice Statistics
Most police chiefs are blaming increased crime on repeat offenders. Based on this and other data, they are correct.
82% were arrested at least once during the 10 years following release.
Prisoners released in 2008 had a median of nine prior arrests and five prior convictions in their criminal history.
40% of persons released from prison in 2008 were arrested for a violent offense.
An estimated 2.2 million arrests occurred among the approximately 409,300 persons released from prison across 24 states in 2008.
Nearly 7 in 10 state prisoners released across 22 states had an arrest within 10 years that led to a conviction.
About 61% of prisoners released in 2008 returned to prison within 10 years for a parole or probation violation or a new sentence.
Characteristics of Prison Inmates-USDOJ
Seventy-eight percent of inmates had previous incarcerations.
Forty-two percent had 5-10 or more incarcerations.
The vast majority of prison inmates have multiple previous arrests and incarcerations. The vast majority have histories of violence.
Violent Offenders Serve Less Than Three Years
There is an immense difference between a prison sentence and the time actually served. The average state prison sentence served is less than two years for property offenders and less than three years for violent offenders, Time Served-USDOJ.
Released Inmates Are Committing New Crimes-Not Technical Violations
Advocates for the release of inmates claim that many returns to the justice system are based on technical violations, not new crimes. The Bureau of Justice Statistics previously released data stating that most revocations (rearrests and reincarcerations) are based on new crimes, not technical violations (i.e., escapes from custody, not reporting to parole and probation agencies). This finding was replicated by the US Sentencing Commission.
“ Almost all prisoners who were re-arrested (96% of released sex offenders and 99% of all released offenders) were arrested for an offense other than a probation or parole violation,” BJS.
58 Percent Are “Currently” Serving Sentences For Violent Crimes
Fifty-eight percent of state male offenders are “currently” serving sentences for violent crimes, Bureau Of Justice Statistics. The percentage would be much higher if criminal history was included, Prisoners Released And New Crimes.
Number Mr. Biden Wants Released
If Mr. Biden has his way, 700,000 mostly violent offenders will be released from prison “or” people convicted would be processed through alternatives to prison (deferral). USDOJ data documents five to ten previous criminal convictions (and scores of arrests) for many prison inmates beyond the current charge. 700,000 mostly violent offenders mean that millions of additional people will become victims of crime.
Considering the high percentage of violent offenders in US prisons (55 to 58 percent for current charges) and the fact that many prison inmates have significant prior histories of arrests and convictions for crimes of violence, the only way to reduce the prison population by half (or a substantial amount) is to dramatically change the way violent offenders are adjudicated.
You can’t cut the US prison population substantially without releasing multi-repeat violent offenders from prison or by putting repeat violent convictions on probation.
Hiding The Announcement?
Is President Biden serious about releasing or deferring hundreds of thousands of violent or multi-repeat prison inmates?
Based on the strength of his statements coupled with the USDOJ press release, it’s possible. But in my opinion, no.
I directed media and public relations for 35 years for national and state criminal justice agencies. Look at the release date for the press release, it’s December 22, 2021, immediately before the holiday season. It was released at 1:00 p.m. (after the Noon news). It’s well known that the media is at half staff (or less) immediately before the Christmas holidays.
Compare this release from the Attorney General on December 27 announcing 1.6 billion dollars in anti-crime grants that got considerable national news. This is on top of cities increasing their police budgets by $450 million.
Was the December 22 announcement designed to be ignored? In my opinion, they didn’t want people to know about this. I did the same thing when I wanted a public announcement to go unnoticed. It was also released during a massive increase in the most recent wave of COVID. I discuss these tactics in my book,” Success With The Media.”
Paining Oneself Into A Corner
But if anyone comes to the conclusion that candidate Biden’s statements calling for a 50 percent reduction in the prison population dovetails with new USDOJ initiatives asking for reduced correctional spending, he has only himself to blame. He hasn’t repudiated his statement.
He doesn’t have the power to release inmates from state prisons. He knows that governors will refuse to release violent criminals. Yet he advocated for cutting the prison population in half before the election.
President Biden’s poll numbers when it comes to crime are literally crashing. Violent crime, especially urban violent crime, increased substantially for 2020-2021 per the FBI and Gallup. Fear of crime is at an all-time high.
After the election, the president-elect suggested that it was the Democrat’s criticism of law enforcement that hurt them in local and state and Congressional races; “That’s how they beat the living hell out of us across the country…”.
About 36% of Americans support Biden’s handling of crimes, according to a ABC/Ipsos poll released Sunday. The percentage is down from an October ABC/Ipsos poll, which found 43% of people approved of Biden’s handling of crime. There are predictions (from Democrats) of massive losses during the upcoming midterm elections
Regardless of the President’s observations or plummeting poll numbers on crime, there are national organizations pumping millions of dollars into progressive crime policies. They are demanding change. They really want a 50 percent reduction in the prison population.
I assume that President Biden is trying to placate the progressives who got him elected by a meaningless proposal unsupported by research. There are endless political pundits like James Carville who called the defund the police movement “lunacy.” The same applies to any effort to defund corrections and releasing or deferring multi-repeat criminal offenders. The public would revolt.
Redefining Recidivism
Per the US Department of Justice’s own data, rehabilitation programs don’t work, they don’t reduce recidivism.
Note that the Biden administration is trying to rewrite the definition of criminality-recidivism (future article) through the National Institute of Justice to include other measures. So a violent offender upon release commits another violent crime “but” he recently completed a substance abuse program, so he’s really not a recidivist? It’s a caustic view of American public opinion; it’s a progressive belief that Americans can be hoodwinked.
Fixing Racial Disparities Or Harming People Of Color?
DOJ’s December 22 press release calls for reduced incarceration and addressing long-standing racial disparities. But violent crime is literally destroying urban African American communities (forthcoming article). What’s the higher moral ground, reducing race inequities in the prison population or protecting or providing justice for people of color? When people don’t get justice from the system, they take matters into their own hands, which is tragically happening now via endless shootings in communities throughout the country.
News reports suggest that the cities where protests and or riots have occurred are being hit the hardest, Governing.Com.
It’s African American communities that are bearing the brunt of the violence, NBC News.
The rise in violent crime across the U.S. has been concentrated in “low-income communities of color” which have disproportionately experienced the impact of school closures and reductions in basic services during the pandemic, according to a study by the University of California-Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, The Crime Report.
There were 722 more homicides in nine U.S. cities last year, according to police data. More than 85% of the increase was in predominantly Black and Hispanic neighborhoods, The Marshall Project.
So on top of historic rising rates of violence and fear and the fact that some African American communities are being destroyed, the Biden administration wants to unleash millions of new crimes by releasing or deferring violent criminals?
Conclusions
Figuring out who needs to be in prison and investigating meaningful alternatives is a worthy endeavor. There’s nothing wrong with overdue research. Everything should be on the table as long as independent (if there are any left) researchers judge results.
The proposed dollar amounts to fund these the newly announced initiatives are almost laughably inadequate compared to the 1.6 billion in police and anti-crime grants announced by the Attorney General with considerable national coverage on December 27.
So progressives, the administration is giving you lip service. But if you really believe that a system that holds mostly multi-repeat violent offenders is going to release hundreds of thousands to commit millions of additional crimes, we need to discuss a bridge in Brooklyn.
Advocates will tell you that I’m fear-mongering and that most inmates can be safely released or that they are in prison because of a technical violation. Per USDOJ data, they are not being honest.
After interviewing hundreds of successful offenders for radio and television shows, I’m the first to admit that we need to encourage and support former inmates, but even they say that their unsuccessful peers have issues that can’t control.
Mr. Biden needs to rethink his position on prison releases before it’s too late. Before the election, Biden was a tough-on-crime advocate. I believe that his old beliefs will kick in. Releasing or deferring large percentages of the violent prison population during a pandemic would be political suicide and dramatically impact midterm elections.
See More
See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.
Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.
US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.
National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.
An Overview Of Data On Mental Health at Mental Health And Crime.
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