Highlights
Released prisoners who served less time had higher arrest rates.
During the five-year follow-up period, an estimated 1.1 million arrests occurred among the approximately 408,300 prisoners released in 2012.
During a nine-year follow-up in 2018, the 401,288 state prisoners released in 2005 had an estimated 1,994,000 arrests during the 9-year period, an average of 5 arrests per released prisoner.
Five out of six released offenders were rearrested; 83% were arrested within 9 years.
Prisoner arrests and incarcerations declined over time (2012-2017).
Massive rearrests on the part of released prisoners is indicative of a serious problem as to crime control. Police chiefs blaming repeat offenders are correct.
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of directing award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of criminology and public affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University. Former police officer. Aspiring drummer.
Notes
All of the data below are from the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics released Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 34 States in 2012: A 5-Year Follow-Up Period (2012–2017). It was offered in late July 2021.
This article is based on this report and previous BJS publications, specifically, a recidivism report from 2018 based on nine years of data.
An overview of all federal and state recidivism statistics is available at Offender Recidivism and Reentry in the United States.
If one is looking for a quick summation of recidivism data, generally speaking, approximately two-thirds are rearrested after prison and approximately half are reincarcerated within three to five years. Longer measurement periods produce higher numbers.
Background
Understanding the recidivism rate (those rearrested and reincarcerated after release from prison) can be complicated.
There are a variety of variables readers need to understand:
1 Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 34 States in 2012: A 5-Year Follow-Up Period (2012–2017) is, as stated, a five-year recidivism study.
A previous, similar report released in 2018 is based on nine years of data instead of five and is summarized below to provide context.
2 The current (and previous) reports address the recidivism of state offenders.
3 There are recidivism rates for federal offenders (with some comparisons with state recidivism), see Recidivism and Reentry in the United States.
4 There is an immense difference between a prison sentence and the time actually served. The average state prison sentence served is less than two years for property offenders and less than three years for violent offenders, Time Served-USDOJ.
5 Violent crime began to rise in the US in 2015 (US Crime Rates). Thus 2012-2013-2014 and 2015 measurements for Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 2012 were during periods of declining crime.
6 Before 2015, there was a substantial twenty-year plus reduction in crime based on data from the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey.
Based on declines in crime, reductions in prison recidivism were anticipated.
There has been a movement throughout US correctional agencies to return fewer people to prison based primarily on budget issues. Reductions in prison recidivism were anticipated based on policy, not reoffending.
8 Reference is made to federal and state recidivism in Offender Recidivism and Reentry in the United States. A note of caution when comparing federal and state prisoners; most state prisoners are currently serving time for a violent offense. Most federal prisoners are not serving time for a violent offense. They are different correctional systems.
9 The Bureau of Justice Statistics previously released data stating that most revocations (rearrests and reincarcerations) are based on new crimes, not technical violations (i.e., escapes from custody, not reporting to parole and probation agencies).
“Almost all prisoners who were re-arrested (96% of released sex offenders and 99% of all released offenders) were arrested for an offense other than a probation or parole violation,” BJS.
It’s simply easier for prosecutors to bring new charges based on a technical violation with clear evidence than a new concurrent crime. It’s extremely rare for people under parole and probation supervision not to have multiple technical violations.
10 Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the vast majority of crime is not reported to law enforcement. The vast majority of reported crime is not solved (i.e., an offender identified). Most convicted of felonies do not get prison time.
Massive rearrests on the part of released prisoners is indicative of a very serious problem as to crime control.
The Impact of State And Federal Prison Sentences And Crime Reduction
The 2012-2017 report from the Bureau of Justice Statistics indicated that longer state prison sentences create less recidivism/crime.
Released prisoners who served less time had higher arrest rates than those who served longer.
Among prisoners released for the first time after beginning their sentence, the percentage arrested within 5 years was higher for those whose median time served was less than the 16-month median (73%) than for those whose median time served was more than the median 16 months (65%).
This finding is replicated in federal recidivism statistics:
In the two models with the larger sample sizes, offenders incarcerated for more than 120 months were approximately 30 percent less likely to recidivate.
In the third model, offenders incarcerated for more than 120 months were approximately 45 percent less likely to recidivate relative to a comparison group receiving less incarceration, Federal Recidivism.
Previous Report-June 2018 Study from the Bureau of Justice Statistics Following Prison Releases for Nine Years. Five out of Six Arrested
This information is offered as context to the five-year study. The data below is based on nine years.
The 401,288 state prisoners released in 2005 had an estimated 1,994,000 arrests during the 9-year period, an average of 5 arrests per released prisoner.
Five out of six released offenders were rearrested.
The vast majority of arrests were not related to technical violations.
Sixty percent of these arrests occurred during years 4 through 9.
An estimated 68% of released prisoners were arrested within 3 years, 79% within 6 years, and 83% within 9 years.
Almost half (47%) of prisoners who did not have an arrest within 3 years of release were arrested during years 4 through 9.
More than three-quarters (77%) of released drug offenders were arrested for a non-drug crime within 9 years.
Forty-four percent of released prisoners were arrested during the first year following release, while 24% were arrested during year-9.
Eighty-two percent of prisoners arrested during the 9-year period were arrested within the first 3 years.
Five percent of prisoners were arrested during the first year after release and not arrested again during the 9-year follow-up period.
During each year and cumulatively in the 9-year follow-up period, released property offenders were more likely to be arrested than released violent offenders.
Eight percent of prisoners arrested during the first year after release were arrested outside the state that released them, compared to 14% of prisoners arrested during year-9.
New Report-July-2021-Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 34 States in 2012: A 5-Year Follow-Up Period (2012–2017)
Among state prisoners released in 2012 across 34 states, 62% were arrested within 3 years, and 71% were arrested within 5 years.
Among prisoners released in 2012 across 21 states with available data on persons returned to prison, 39% had either a parole or probation violation or an arrest for a new offense within 3 years that led to imprisonment, and 46% had a parole or probation violation or an arrest within 5 years that led to imprisonment.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) used prisoner records from the National Corrections Reporting Program and criminal history data to analyze the post-release offending patterns of former prisoners both within and outside of the state where they were imprisoned. This study randomly sampled about 92,100 released prisoners to represent the approximately 408,300 state prisoners released across 34 states in 2012.
These 34 states were responsible for 79% of all persons released from state prisons that year nationwide.
Summation
About 6 in 10 (62%) prisoners released across 34 states in 2012 were arrested within 3 years, and 7 in 10 (71%) were arrested within 5 years.
Nearly half (46%) of prisoners released in 2012 returned to prison within 5 years for a parole or probation violation or a new sentence.
Eleven percent of prisoners released in 2012 were arrested within 5 years outside of the state that released them.
Eighty-one percent of prisoners age 24 or younger at release in 2012 were arrested within 5 years of release, compared to 74% of those ages 25 to 39 and 61% of those age 40 or older.
During the 5-year follow-up period, an estimated 1.1 million arrests occurred among the approximately 408,300 prisoners released in 2012.
Sixty-two percent of drug offenders released from prison in 2012 were arrested for a nondrug crime within 5 years.
The annual arrest percentage of prisoners released in 2012 declined from 37% in Year 1 to 26% in Year 5.
Of prisoners released in the 19 states in the 2005, 2008, and 2012 recidivism studies, the percentage arrested within 5 years declined from 77% of 2005 releases to 75% of 2008 releases, to 71% of 2012 releases.
Forty-three percent of prisoners released in 2012 had 10 or more prior arrests
Forty-three percent of prisoners released in 2012 had 10 or more prior arrests, compared to 31% who had 5 to 9, and 26% who had 4 or fewer.
An estimated 85% were first arrested when they were age 24 or younger, including 30% whose first arrest occurred when they were age 17 or younger.
Juvenile offenses may be excluded from this analysis for persons not prosecuted as an adult or due to state laws and practices regarding record sealing or expungement.
About two-thirds of prisoners released after serving time for a violent offense were arrested for any crime within 5 years.
56% of state prisoners released in 2012 after serving time for a violent offense were arrested within 3 years
More than half (56%) of state prisoners released in 2012 after serving time for a violent offense were arrested within 3 years for any type of offense, while about two-thirds were arrested within 5 years.
Prisoners released after serving time for a violent offense (65%) were less likely to have been arrested for any type of crime within 5 years than prisoners released after serving time for a property (78%), a drug (70%), or a public order (69%) offense.
About half of released prisoners had an arrest within 5 years that led to a conviction
About half of released prisoners had an arrest within 5 years that led to a conviction The percentage of prisoners who had an arrest during the 5 years following release that resulted in a court conviction was based on prisoners released from the 31 of 34 states in the study that had the necessary data.
Because not all arrests result in a conviction, recidivism rates based on the court conviction measure are lower than those based on a new arrest.
Prisoner Arrests And Incarcerations Declined Over Time
The percentage of prisoners arrested for any offense following release declined between 2005 and 2012. Among prisoners released across the 19 states, the percentage arrested within 3 years following release declined from 69% of those released in 2005, to 67% of those released in 2008, to 62% of those released in 2012.
The cumulative arrest percentage during the 5-year follow-up period also declined over time, from 77% of those released in 2005, to 75% of those released in 2008, to 71% of those released in 2012.
Between the 2005 and 2012 release cohorts, the 5-year cumulative arrest percentage declined for male and female prisoners and for released prisoners across the three age groups. The 5-year cumulative arrest percentage also declined between the 2005 and 2012 cohorts among prisoners released after serving time for a violent, property, drug, or public order offense.
Source
See More
See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.
Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.
US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.
National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.
An Overview Of Data On Mental Health at Mental Health And Crime.
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