Explaining COVID And Post Lockdown Violence

Highlights

The bedrock of today’s violence could be the shock of the pandemic plus relaxed or disappearing enforcement.

The increase in homicides, aggravated assaults, carjackings and other forms of violence is astounding.

As COVID surges in 2021, the possibility of additional lockdowns exists.

Many social disruptions in the past were accompanied by rising crime. History can’t be ignored.

Change the rules in the middle of social upheaval and you get rising rates of violence. Cities are getting clobbered by COVID and crime. People and businesses are leaving. Economies are hurting. COPS are resigning. Recruitment and retention are plummeting.

Author

Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.

Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of directing award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of criminology and public affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University. Former police officer. Aspiring drummer.

Quotes

All quotes are direct with minor changes for readability.

Article

The bedrock of today’s violence could be the shock of the pandemic and lockdowns plus relaxed or disappearing enforcement.

When I was writing about COVID and crime earlier this year, I came across a variety of articles stating that lockdowns would have a profound impact on American society.

The authors stated that you can’t prohibit freedom of movement (i.e., public gatherings or speech or religious attendance) and you can’t destroy jobs and the economy without repercussions. “No national economic shock or downturn in the U.S. has ever happened as fast as this one,” Lockdowns And Crime. Mental health issues increased substantially.

After the lockdowns, it seems that the American public has rebelled. I went to a Florida outdoor art show where masks were mandated yet 80-90 percent ignored the order. For many, social distancing doesn’t exist. Tens of millions traveled by plane during the recent holiday season despite pleas from health officials.

Americans simply don’t like to be told what to do regardless of the consequences.

Hating This Discussion

There are people who hate this discussion. They believe that blaming COVID for increasing violence is misdirected. They insist that the protests and relaxed enforcement on the part of law enforcement and prosecutors are partially responsible. Arrests are down throughout the country. Cases cleared for homicides are plummeting in many cities. “Reform” prosecutors are not bringing criminal charges for some crimes.

There is no doubt that rioting-looting and protests regarding police use of force contributed significantly to increased violence. Data indicates that cities with riots have expanding rates of violence. Yes, disturbances will have a negative impact on affected communities for decades to come. Protests resulted in at least $1 billion to $2 billion of paid insurance claims, more than any other violent demonstrations in recent history, Protests.

All of this comes on the heels of rising crime. Violent crime rose by 28 percent since 2015 per the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice. Serious violence has increased. Per Gallup, violence tripled. Fear of crime is at an all-time high, Crime in America.

Firearm sales are going through the roof. Per numerous articles, cops are leaving the job in droves after vicious and seemingly endless confrontations with protestors and the media, Cops. Police recruitment is down 63 percent.

But historically, a surge in lawlessness during times of massive social change and uncertainty play a role.

Criminal Justice Reform-Changes Carries Consequences

Within every society, rules and society’s willingness to obey those rules control crime. When the rules are relaxed or disappear during times of change, society is in a partial state of normlessness.

We ended or greatly restricted bail. Some prosecutors stated that arrests for lower-level laws would not be enforced. Well-known people and groups (including Mr. Biden) called for cutting the prison population in half. In many cities, citizens demand fewer police stops and arrests.

Regardless of their worthiness, these changes carry consequences for domestic violence victims (bail reform) small businesses (no prosecution for shoplifting), or communities demanding fewer police stops (proactivity is necessary for crime control).

Regardless of the merits, we essentially stated that the rules are now different in the middle of the uncertainty of a pandemic, thus giving many offenders a green light for increased violence, carjackings and disruptions. No, it’s not as direct as I’m making it, but change has consequences.

The increases in violence affected a number of urban areas, many where disturbances occurred.

Big Increases in Violence-CNN

It’s been a deadly year, and that’s not just due to Covid-19.

Despite less activity outside with the closing of businesses and schools, 2020 saw a dramatic increase in homicides.

Between January and October, there was a 29% increase in homicides compared to the same timeframe in 2019, according to a November report from the National Commission on Covid-19 and Criminal Justice.

As of December 27, some of America’s largest cities saw dramatic increases as well, including Chicago (55%), New York (41%) and Los Angeles (30%).

The increase was due to a number of factors, criminology experts told CNN. The pandemic closed schools and businesses, leading to unemployment. This meant children and unemployed adults were stuck at home, which led to skyrocketing stress and anxiety levels, especially in lower-income homes.

The virus also changed the way police officers do their jobs — because of illness and social distancing — which in turn led to fewer officers on the streets in areas that needed crime prevention the most.

The same neighborhoods that witness police violence are the same ones where the uptick in crime is concentrated.

If you look at the CDC data on mental health … people 18 to 24 are showing signs of anxiety, depression, increased in substance use in response to the pandemic and trying to deal with the pandemic,” CNN

Major Social Disruptions in The Past Saw Increased Violence

The current pandemic is contributing to violence. Per past events, how could it not?

Colonial Period And The Revolution-There were profound social changes in the American experience after the Revolution. “Everything seemed to be coming apart and murder, suicide, theft, and mobbing became increasingly common responses.” Use of alcohol dramatically increased, Google Books.

The Civil War-Draft riots in New York lasted for days resulting in massive property destruction and loss of life. It required the military to put it down. They also occurred in other cities. Britannica.

Reconstruction-The movement by Southern ex-Confederates after the Civil War to reestablish their control and put an end to Reconstruction was really accomplished through countless discrete crimes against ex-slaves and their advocates, The Atlantic.

The American West-Homicide rates in the West were extraordinarily high by today’s standards and by the standards of the rest of the United States and the Western world in the nineteenth century, Criminal Justice Research Center.

Great Depression-Violent crime rates rose at first during the Depression (in 1933, nationwide homicide mortality rate hit a high for the century until that point, at 9.7 per 100,000 people). However, as the economy showed signs of recovery in 1934-37, the homicide rate went down by 20 percent, History Channel.

The 1960s-1970s Protests and Counter-Culture-Americans who lived through the 1960s and 1970s remember the fear associated with a real surge in violent crime. In fact, the violent crime rate increased by 126 percent between 1960 and 1970, and by 64 percent between 1970 and 1980, Brennan Center.

The Last Recession-The economic crisis of 2008-2009 was the worst since the Great Depression. Per a study by the Police Executive Research Forum, 44 percent of law enforcement agencies reported increases in crime, Coronavirus And Crime.

Not all historical disturbances were accompanied by an increase in violence. The Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-1919 had a tremendous impact on American cities altering the warfare plans of World War I, making close to 1 billion people ill, and killing from 21 to 40 million people. But crime fell by 35% in Chicago during the epidemic period as compared with the same months the previous year, NIH. Social control remained intact.

Conclusions

It’s not my intention to downplay the worthiness of criminal justice reform or pandemic restrictions.

It is, however, my objective to remind readers that the American experience is filled to the brim with events that make today’s pandemic pale in comparison.

It’s also important to note that change has consequences. Relaxing enforcement during a pandemic may not be in our best interest.

Wars, economic recessions, and changes in society had profound impacts. Increasing violence is often correlated with stressful times.

We can debate pandemic restrictions or the police use of force or the economic impact of COVID or stimulus measures, but the bedrock of today’s violence could be the shock of the pandemic PLUS relaxed or disappearing rules and enforcement.

It may be time for a reassessment.

See More

More articles are available on the 2020 pandemic and crime at COVID and Crime.

See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.

Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.

US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.

National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.

The Crime in America.Net RSS feed (https://crimeinamerica.net/?feed=rss2) provides subscribers with a means to stay informed about the latest news, publications, and other announcements from the site.

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