Highlights
Firearm offenders are arrested at the highest levels after release.
Firearm use during crimes of violence is increasing.
Author
The US Sentencing Commission
This report is the second in a series continuing the Commission’s research of the recidivism of federal offenders. It provides an overview of the recidivism of federal firearms offenders released from incarceration or sentenced to a term of probation in 2010, combining data regularly collected by the Commission with data compiled from criminal history records from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).
The report provides an overview of recidivism for these offenders and information on key offender and offense characteristics related to recidivism. This report also compares recidivism outcomes for federal firearms offenders released in 2010 to firearms offenders released in 2005.
The final study group included 5,659 firearms offenders. They include United States citizens, those who reentered the community during 2010 after discharging their sentence of incarceration or by commencing a term of probation in 2010, not reported dead, escaped, or detained, and those having valid FBI numbers that could be located in criminal history repositories.
Findings
Firearms offenders recidivated at a higher rate than all other offenders.
Over two-thirds (69.0%) of firearms offenders were rearrested for a new crime during the eight-year follow-up period compared to less than half of all other offenders (45.1%).
Firearms offenders and all other offenders who recidivated were rearrested for similar crimes. Of the firearms offenders who recidivated, an assault was the most serious new charge for 25.9 percent of offenders followed by drug trafficking (11.0%). Similarly, of the all other offenders who recidivated, an assault was the most common new charge (19.0%) followed by drug trafficking (11.4%).
Firearms offenders have higher recidivism rates than all other offenders in every Criminal History Category (CHC) (editor’s note, the way the US Sentencing Commission rates the potential for recidivism). Within most CHCs, this difference was about ten percentage points. In CHC I, 39.7 percent of firearms offenders recidivated compared to 29.6 percent of all other offenders.
In CHC VI, 82.8 percent of firearms offenders recidivated compared to 72.9 percent of all other offenders.
Firearms offenders recidivated at a higher rate than all other offenders in every age-at-release grouping. Firearms offenders recidivated at over twice the rate of all other offenders among those released after age 59 (31.1% compared to 14.5%).
The recidivism rates for firearms and all other offenders were highly similar for both the 2010 release cohort in this report and the 2005 release cohort previously studied. In the 2005 release cohort, 68.1 percent of firearms offenders recidivated compared to 46.3 percent of all other offenders. Similarly, 69.0 percent of firearms offenders in the 2010 release cohort recidivated compared to 45.1 percent of all other offenders.
Context-Few Violent Crimes involve Firearms
Based on the FBI’s National Incident-Based Reporting System, the majority of violent crime does not involve the use of firearms.
Except for homicides, most violent crime involved personal weapons or knives or blunt objects or motor vehicles with large numbers falling into the “other” or “unknown weapons” categories.
There were 86,210 assaults involving firearms versus 1,22,640 non-firearm assaults.
There were 33,436 robberies with firearms versus 46,276 knives, personal weapons, all others and no weapon/force involved.
No weapon or force involved exceeds firearm use for assaults and sex offenses.
Very few sex offenses involved firearms, Firearms And Crime.
Context-The Vast Majority of Violent Crime Is Not Reported
According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ latest report, only 40 percent of violent crime is reported to law enforcement. Per the FBI, the majority of reported violent crime does not end in arrest.
This means that the recidivism data compiled above by the US Sentencing Commission is a vast undercount.
Context-Police Executive Research Forum Addressing Increased Use Of Firearms
The majority of agencies responding to a PERF survey reported that firearm homicides, nonfatal shootings, and the number of illegal firearms recovered all increased from 2019 to 2020.
And these patterns were not limited to the largest agencies; increases in gun crimes and recoveries were reported by agencies of all sizes.
Context-The Most Common Understanding Of Recidivism
The most common understanding of recidivism is based on state data from the US Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, stating that two-thirds (68 percent) of prisoners released were arrested for a new crime within three years of release from prison, and three-quarters (77 percent) were arrested within five years.
Within 3 years of release, 49.7% of inmates either had an arrest that resulted in a conviction with a disposition of a prison sentence or were returned to prison without a new conviction because they violated a technical condition of their release, as did 55.1% of inmates within 5 years of release.
A ten-year study from the Bureau of Justice Statistics shows that 82% were arrested at least once during the 10 years following release. Offenders committed well over two million new crimes. About 61% of prisoners released in 2008 returned to prison within 10 years for a parole or probation violation or a new sentence, Offender Recidivism.
The vast majority of offenders studied above were state inmates. There are vast differences between state and federal inmates with states having a mostly violent population. Based on current sentences and percentages, there are few violent offenders in federal prisons
Conclusions
Based on arrests, firearm offenders recidivate more. The data from the US Sentencing Commission proves it. Their level of rearrests indicates a dangerousness unsurpassed by others.
It doesn’t matter that the offenders studied for this report are federal. There is no reason to believe that the results would be any different for released state offenders.
But the cited ten-year study by the Bureau of Justice Statistics of mostly violent state offenders (based on current charges and criminal history) also indicates extremely high levels of rearrests and reincarcerations.
Firearm use during crimes of violence is increasing.
If there is any hope of bringing down growing rates of violent crime, there has to be an emphasis on incarcerating firearm and violent offenders for a significant period of time. Per data from the Bureau Of Justice Statistics, the average time served for violent offenders is less than three years.
See More
See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.
Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.
US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.
National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.
An Overview Of Data On Mental Health at Mental Health And Crime.
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