Is It Possible To Safely Release Violent Prison Inmates Early?

Highlights

This article is available as a podcast on YouTube.

This is a national story as several states contemplate reducing sentences for violent offenders. Per the Bureau Of Justice Statistics, 62 percent of all persons imprisoned by states had been sentenced for violent offenses. 66 percent of male inmates are serving time for violent crimes. If we consider criminal histories, the great majority of incarcerated people have backgrounds of violence or are multiple repeat offenders.

The overwhelming percentage of offenders released from prison are arrested or incarcerated again per the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

Based on data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, based on inmates aged 40 and above, 75-77 percent of released offenders will be arrested again within ten years. Fifty-three percent will return to prison.

Author
 
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
 
Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention and Statistics for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public Affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former police officer. Retired federal senior spokesperson.
 
Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Produced successful state anti-crime media campaigns.
 
Thirty-five years of directing award-winning (50+) public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed thousands of times by every national news outlet, often with a focus on crime statistics and research. Created the first state and federal podcasting series. Produced a unique and emulated style of government proactive public relations. 
 
Certificate of Advanced Study-The Johns Hopkins University. 
 
Author of ”Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization” available at Amazon and additional booksellers.
 
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Article

Questions: Is it possible to safely release prison inmates early after committing a murder or other serious violent crime? Is it in society’s best interest? If national rates of recidivism based on new crimes or new incarcerations are very high, should that data be a guide to the questions?

I was asked by The Maryland Crime Victims Resource Center to submit testimony and appear (virtually) to discuss recidivism after prison. My written comments are below.

There is proposed legislation to shorten long sentences based on the offender’s young age when he committed the crime. Considering that these are 20-year-plus sentences, I assume we are addressing homicides or other serious violent crimes. The average offender in prison serves 1.3 years.

For many, an early release for homicide or other serious violent crimes is a nonstarter regardless of the age of the offender at the time of the crime. For advocates, it’s a chance for redemption. For state budget people (and governors), it’s an opportunity to reduce costs. 

A National Movement?

In 2025, several U.S. states are actively considering or have introduced legislation aimed at reducing prison sentences for certain incarcerated individuals including Connecticut,  ​Shaw Local+7CT Insider+7CT Insider+7CT Insider, Illinois, ​Shaw LocalHuron Daily Tribune, Michigan, ​Huron Daily Tribune, New York, Times Union+1Stateline+1.

Additionally, states such as California, Delaware, and Washington have existing “Second Look” laws that allow courts to reconsider long sentences for individuals who have demonstrated rehabilitation. Other states, including Nevada, are considering similar legislation, ​Times Union+2Pcralaw+2Stateline+2.

In January, Michigan’s  House Speaker Matt Hall, R-Marshall, announced that for the next two years, criminal justice reform legislation — including the Second Look Sentencing Act — would not move forward under his leadership. 

All promise that Second Look legislation is not about being soft on crime but about being smart on justice.

We will examine Maryland as an example of one state’s effort to release violent offenders.

The Problem

The problem is that some in Maryland are stating that recidivism will be very low based on the age of release (approximately 40 years of age). The Maryland Department of Public Safety (I worked for them as the director of public information for 14 years ) claims that recidivism is 31.55 percent reincarcerated after three years (for all ages) whereas the Bureau of Justice Statistics states that the national three-year reincarceration rate for state prisons is approximately 50 percent.

The Maryland Department of Public Safety is now solely using new incarcerations after release from prison as their measure of recidivism whereas the Bureau of Justice Statistics and the US Sentencing Commission (part of the federal judiciary) insist that a true measure of recidivism must include new arrests along with new incarcerations. This has been the policy of federal agencies for decades.

Advocates Say The Risk To Public Safety Will Be Minimal

Advocates supporting the legislation insist that recidivism, regardless of how you measure it, will be very low based on the age of release.

Think about this; if advocates are correct when stating that violent offenders serving 20-year-plus sentences for a serious violent incident can be safely released without committing new crimes, it could save states many millions of dollars in correctional officer salaries and maintaining or building new prisons over time.

Several state correctional systems in America are claiming reductions in recidivism through programs. If they are correct, again, the savings would be considerable. National organizations are supporting these objectives.

If true, it would be like curing cancer or ending hunger or any other wonderful societal achievement. There’s no doubt that they will win the Pulitzer Prize for public service. The US Department of Justice would rush in to study the achievement (as they have with other recidivism reduction projects, see Hawaii’s Project Hope) and replicate it elsewhere while evaluating results.

Has any of this happened? No. It hasn’t because no one believes that recidivism after prison could be as low as some states and advocates claim. It hasn’t happened because the current Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) literature states that over 80 percent of offenders are arrested after release and over 60 percent are incarcerated again after ten years. Three-year rates for new arrests and incarcerations from BJS are also very high. See the data below.

Advocates Say That High Recidivism Is Based On Overly Aggressive Cops And Supervision Agencies

Advocates claim that high rates of recidivism are based on overaggressive police and parole and probation systems and that technical violations (i.e., absconding from community supervision, not paying fines and restitution, drug positives) are being used to unfairly harass those released from prison.

The Bureau of Justice Statistics states that the great majority of new arrests for people released from prison are based on new crimes, not technical violations.

These claims are offered concurrently with plummeting police arrests, a dramatic decline in crimes solved, and over 25,000 fewer police officers with a decline in millions of stops on the part of law enforcement, all per federal data. Note that the overwhelming majority of crimes are not reported to law enforcement per the Bureau of Justice Statistics plus other data. Combined, this hardly seems like an oppressive force out to purposely send people back to prison.

Combined, these factors seem to favor reoffending. Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, we are now at record highs for violent crime per the last official reports. Note that the FBI (based on crimes reported to law enforcement–most aren’t) states that crime is declining. 

As to overly aggressive parole and probation agencies, the national average is over 200 offenders to one parole and probation agent. I have seen parole and probation agencies with half that ratio produce similar statistics offered by the Bureau of Justice Statistics. The average “high-risk” offender on intensive supervision has a face-to-face meeting with their parole and probation officer twice a month. And this is considered overly aggressive supervision?

If We Use Age 40 and Above, What Are The Probable Rates Of Recidivism?

Based on data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (see below), 75-77 percent of released state offenders aged 40 and above will be arrested again within ten years. Fifty-three percent will return to prison.

Based on US Sentencing Commission data on federal offenders, violent offenders recidivate at a higher rate than non-violent offenders. Over an eight-year follow-up period, nearly two-thirds (63.8%) of violent offenders released in 2010 were rearrested, compared to more than one-third (38.4%) of non-violent offenders. Even higher rates of recidivism apply to firearm offenders, US Sentencing Commission.

If we are addressing inmates with 20-year-plus sentences for homicides and other violent crimes, in all likelihood, they are firearm-based events.

Summation

The criminal justice system is always on the hunt for new initiatives that successfully reduce recidivism. Why? Because correctional systems are very expensive. I presume that every governor in America has told their correctional leadership to either stay within budget or, if possible, reduce it. I presume that governors have an endless array of projects that would rather spend money on than corrections. 

The track record for correctional programs is dismal yet advocates are claiming huge successes.

No one is against programs that reduce recidivism. No one is willing to rule out the possibility of a successful release. I have interviewed hundreds of ex-offenders who have “crossed the bridge” to a crime and drug-free life. Society needs to be more accommodating to those trying to be successful. We should do everything possible to keep first or second-time young property offenders out of the justice system.

There is nothing wrong with offering educational or vocational programs based on our religious or humanistic values as long as we are honest; they do not reduce recidivism or, when “successful,” reduce recidivism by 20 percent at best meaning that the vast majority of offenders fail. 

Rather than admit that people with considerable histories of substance abuse and mental health problems (along with dire histories of abuse, violence, brain injuries, sexual violence, and rock-bottom school scores) don’t do well after release from prison, some claim otherwise. This perpetuates conditions that lead to failure.

We need a national convention to admit our lack of success and to rethink how we do correctional programming.

But federal data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics and the US Sentencing Commission based on hundreds of thousands of prison releases covering most inmates released from prison in the US, the data is what the data is. Any jurisdiction claiming large reductions in recidivism is probably not being honest based on independently evaluated and replicated programs. 

Appendix: My Written Testimony To The Maryland General Assembly

Recidivism of Criminal Offenders Based On Data From The US Department Of Justice And The US Sentencing Commission

Testimony from Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr. Sipes owns CrimeinAmerica.Net. Sipes has well over 50 years of service in the justice system ranging from being a police officer to the senior specialist for crime prevention and statistics for the US Department of Justice’s clearinghouse to the director of information services for the USDOJ-funded National Crime Prevention Council to 35 years of directing public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Sipes holds a post-Masters Certificate of Advanced Study from the Johns Hopkins University. 

Testimony is based on Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 24 States: A 10-Year Follow-Up Period From The Bureau Of Justice Statistics (BJS), US Department of Justice-2021

82 percent of offenders released from prison were rearrested within ten years. This comes during a timeframe where the great majority of crimes were not reported per BJS, overall arrests declined along with decreases in crimes solved.

Per BJS, over 90 percent of new arrests were based on new crimes, not parole and probation technical violations.

61 percent of offenders released from prison were re-incarcerated after ten years. Note that national rates of incarceration have declined significantly during this time period.

66 percent of released offenders from prison were arrested within three years.

Ninety percent of prisoners who were age 24 or younger at the time of release in were arrested within ten years of release.

A smaller percentage of those who were ages 25 to 39 (85%) and age 40 or older (75%) at the time of release were arrested again within ten years of release.

During the ten-year follow-up period, an estimated 2.2 million arrests occurred among the approximately 409,300 prisoners released.

One-quarter (25%) of prisoners released across 24 states had been serving time for a violent offense. Note that currently, approximately 62 percent are serving sentences for violent offenses. For males, its 66 percent.

Prisoners released had a median of nine prior arrests (for any type of offense) and five corresponding convictions in their criminal history before release. An estimated 29% of prisoners released in were first arrested when they were age 17 or younger, and 85% were first arrested when they were age 24 or younger.

Among state prisoners released after serving time for a violent offense, about 6 in 10 (61%) were arrested within 3 years following their release. This percentage increased to about 7 in 10 (69%) prisoners arrested within 5 years and just under 8 in 10 (77%) arrested within 10 years following release.

89 percent of released prisoners had 10 or more arrests ten years after release based on prior arrests, age of first arrest, and years following release. For those 40 or older, its 41.3 percent.

Nearly 7 in 10 state prisoners released across 22 states had an arrest within 10 years that led to a conviction.

About 6 in 10 released prisoners returned to prison within 10 years. This applies to 53 percent of those 40 or older upon release.

Thirty-one percent of released prisoners were arrested for assault, while 1% were arrested for homicide, 3% for rape or sexual assault, 7% for robbery, and 14% for other types of violent offenses.

More than 4 in 10 prisoners released after serving time for a violent offense were arrested for a violent offense within 10 years.

The states measured accounted for 69 percent of all released prisoners in the US.

I served as the director of public information for the Maryland Department of Public Safety And Correctional Services for 14 years. During that time, Maryland’s rates of recidivism mimicked Bureau of Justice Statistics data.

Arrest History of Persons Admitted to State Prison in 2009 and 2014 from The Bureau of Justice Statistics-2023

The 369,200 persons admitted to state prison in 34 states had an estimated 4.2 million prior arrests.

 Persons admitted to state prison had a median of nine prior arrests.

 About half of persons admitted in 2014 were released by the end of 2015. Over half (59%) were arrested at least once within 2 years.

 78 percent of inmates had previous incarcerations. Forty-two percent had 5-10 or more incarcerations. 62 percent were violent.

Data From The US Sentencing Commission

 Impact Of Longer Sentences: Released offenders committed well over two million new crimes per the Bureau of Justice Statistics. The odds of recidivism were approximately 29 percent lower for federal offenders sentenced to more than 120 months of incarceration compared to a matched group of federal offenders receiving shorter sentences, US Sentencing Commission.

 Violent Offenders: Violent offenders recidivate at a higher rate than non-violent offenders. Over an eight-year follow-up period, nearly two-thirds (63.8%) of violent offenders released in 2010 were rearrested, compared to more than one-third (38.4%) of non-violent offenders. Even higher rates of recidivism apply to firearm offenders, US Sentencing Commission.

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