Highlights
Is crime decreasing? “There’s a crime divide between Americans and politicians, and voters are watching,” The Hill.
“The White House to the left: We told you so on crime. In the wake of the voter backlash over public safety in Oregon, Joe Biden’s aides this week argued the results served as validation of their long-running concerns that crime and an immigration crisis at the southern border risk overwhelming the president’s case for reelection — especially if the broader party is seen as soft on both fronts,” Politico.
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention and Statistics for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public Affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former police officer. Retired federal senior spokesperson.
Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Produced successful state anti-crime media campaigns.
Thirty-five years of directing award-winning (50+) public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed thousands of times by every national news outlet, often with a focus on crime statistics and research. Created the first state and federal podcasting series. Produced a unique and emulated style of government proactive public relations.
Certificate of Advanced Study-The Johns Hopkins University.
Author of ”Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization” available at Amazon and additional booksellers.
Sign up for notice of new articles on the front page of this site.
Daily news summations on crime, violent crime, law enforcement, and the justice system are offered under “Google Crime News” in the banner of this website.
Article
Within the minds of some, any thought that crime is increasing is simply a lie and threatens criminal justice reform.
Within the minds of others, violence and overall crimes are exploding thus the need for offender accountability and stronger law enforcement with a Times Of London expose’ of Portland Oregon as one example.
The issue is heavily politicized. If you express an opinion either way, you will be called every name in the book. If you make a case for an expanded crime and violence problem, you’re an ally of Donald Trump. If you believe that crime is declining, you support President Biden.
It’s becoming impossible to have a factual, evidence-based conversation.
“Former President Donald Trump has long focused on high crime rates as a campaign issue, but this position has been complicated by news of declining violent crime, including murders. So Trump and his allies have tried a new approach — calling into question whether the FBI numbers are incomplete and, thus, wrong.”
The Question
Is there a synopsis of crime that’s factual? Yes, but it won’t appease either side.
Synopsis Based On The Most Recent “OFFICIAL” USDOJ Data
There are two types of crime reports from the US Department of Justice, official full-year data and preliminary statistics which may (and probably will) include different numbers. One example is that many (most?) police agencies do not report their crime data till the end of the calendar year.
The National Crime Victimization Survey from the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice in a 2023 report states that violent crime increased 44 percent (per analyst Jeff Asher and The Marshall Project) with large increases in violence for groups for 2022. A 44 percent increase in violence would be the largest ever recorded.
There has never been an increase in violent crime of this magnitude. A companion report on juvenile crime also offers data on greatly expanded violence. Both use a polling methodology similar to the US Census.
According to the FBI, violence decreased slightly in 2022. The FBI offered 12 categories of crimes (13 including hate crimes). Four categories decreased, six categories increased and one (burglary) was flat. Hate crimes increased. The FBI’s crime statistics estimates for 2022 show that national violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7% in 2022
These are the most recent “official” crime reports from the US Department of Justice. Based on USDOJ data, vast increases in violent crime are well documented.
“The best available figures, from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), show a whopping 58 percent rise in violent crime in urban areas from 2019—before the summer of George Floyd, BLM, and the “defund the police” crusade—to 2022, the most recent year for which finalized federal statistics are available.”
“The numbers are even worse on closer inspection. If one removes from that period the bar fights and other similar encounters that make up much of the “simple assault” category, urban areas have seen a 73 percent spike in more serious violent crimes,” City Journal.
Synopsis Based On The Most Recent “PRELIMINARY” USDOJ Data
2023
Data from the FBI based on crimes reported to law enforcement (the vast majority are not), there was a decrease in violent crimes of 3 percent for metropolitan areas (where most Americans live) and a 7 percent decrease for the country via preliminary (unofficial) data for 2023. The 2023 FBI official report will be released in the fall of 2024.
The First Quarter of 2024
“Data from the FBI based on crimes reported to law enforcement (the vast majority are not reported) for the first quarter of 2024, the murder rate fell by 26.4%, reported rapes decreased by 25.7%, robberies fell by 17.8%, aggravated assault fell by 12.5%, and the overall violent crime rate went down by 15.2%, the statistics show.”
“Reported property crimes also decreased by 15.1%, according to the UCR report, which the FBI compiles using crime statistics supplied to the agency by law enforcement agencies across the U.S.,” per NBC News.
Comment: “Violent and property crime were not down 15 percent nationally in the first quarter of 2024 relative to the first quarter of 2023. I don’t assert many things in this newsletter but I’m going to assert that, and I wrote a fair amount two weeks ago about why. Violent and property crime were likely down a healthy amount in the first quarter, but the available evidence suggests it was a considerably smaller decline,” Jeff Asher.
Context
1 The U.S. surgeon general declared gun violence a public health crisis, driven by the fast-growing number of injuries and deaths involving firearms in the country.
“People want to be able to walk through their neighborhoods and be safe,” Murthy told The Associated Press in a phone interview. “America should be a place where all of us can go to school, go to work, go to the supermarket, go to our house of worship, without having to worry that that’s going to put our life at risk.”
2 Per the Associated Press, the first weekend of summer brought a tragic yet familiar pattern for American cities wracked by gun violence as mass shootings left dozens dead or wounded at a party in Alabama, an entertainment district in Ohio and a grocery store in Arkansas.
It was the second straight weekend that saw an outbreak of mass shootings across the U.S., prompting mayors in places marred by the violence to plead for help.
In Michigan, a deputy was fatally shot while pursuing a suspected stolen vehicle in what the county sheriff described as an ambush. A Philadelphia police officer was critically wounded Saturday after pulling over a car with four people.
Police in Montgomery, Alabama, said hundreds of rounds were fired at a crowded party early Sunday, leaving nine people wounded. Interim Police Chief John Hall said investigators recovered more than 350 different spent shell casings.
3 It is estimated that over half of individuals encountering the criminal justice system have experienced at least one brain injury. If true, it partially explains our violence problem.
4 Per two US Department of Justice agencies, there is a crisis in the number of police officers lost as thousands have resigned resulting in sometimes extraordinary wait times to respond to crime scenes probably resulting in people not reporting crimes.
5 Fear of crime is at an all-time high per Gallup. There are endless articles suggesting that fellow citizens are being foolish in their fear. Are they?
6 Homicides are down considerably “but”, according to The Major Cities Chiefs Association, murders increased 50 percent from 2019-2022 in the 70 cities studied. Homicides can’t continue to increase at that rate; cities would become unlivable. It was statistically inevitable that homicides would decrease.
I could go on endlessly with examples of growing violence in recent years from the CDC (highest firearm homicides since the 1990s) or the National Academy of Sciences (victimization while a person was out in public rose by nearly 40%) but it’s probably meaningless. Politics is driving the debate, not factual data.
Summation
There is not a person in the criminological or law enforcement community who can give you a precise answer as to the status of crime and violence in recent years. There are an endless array of “ifs” “ands” and “buts.”
The media mostly ignores the far more accurate (based on the numbers analyzed) National Crime Victimization Survey. There are 11,000 hate crimes per the FBI and approximately 250,000 hate crimes yearly per the NCVS. For policy purposes, which data would you choose?
Some are willing to contrast crime data to earlier decades or even 50 years ago while noting if you cherry-pick dates, you can statistically prove anything.
Crimes reported to law enforcement (the vast majority are not) are declining per unofficial preliminary FBI data. Murders (the best-reported crime) are decreasing rapidly. Homicides are historically an indication of overall crime.
Because the vast majority of crime is not reported (42 percent of violent crimes are reported, and 32 percent of property crimes are reported per the Bureau of Justice Statistics), FBI data is severely compromised. That’s why we have the 50-year-old National Crime Victimization Survey to employ a methodology similar to the US census to document total crime.
I could go on endlessly about the National Crime Victimization Survey’s efforts to revise its methodology of counting crimes or the FBI’s number of law enforcement agencies not participating (4,000 for 2023) in crime counts or police agencies not using the FBI’s new National Incident-Based Reporting System (which has the potential to record more crime than previously collected). Still, I doubt that it would persuade anyone.
You can make a case either way, but per the American public via Gallup and numerous additional polls on national and election priorities, crime and violence are significant problems. In the final analysis, that may be the most important crime statistic.
Privacy Policy
We do not collect your personal information. See our privacy policy at “About This Site.”
See More
See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.
Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.
US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.
National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.
The Crime in America.Net RSS feed (https://crimeinamerica.net/?feed=rss2) provides subscribers with a means to stay informed about the latest news, publications, and other announcements from the site.