Long Prison Sentences Reduce Crime Per Federal Study

Highlights

Released offenders committed well over two million new crimes per the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

The odds of recidivism were approximately 29 percent lower for federal offenders sentenced to more than 120 months of incarceration compared to a matched group of federal offenders receiving shorter sentences.

Author

Note

The latest (and recently updated) summation of federal or state offender recidivism is available at Offender Recidivism and Reentry In The United States.

Note

This article addresses new research on federal offenders offered by the US Sentencing Commission. I also offer data on state offenders issued by the Bureau of Justice Statistics for comparison purposes.

Article

What correctional intervention reduces recidivism or new criminality most effectively? Longer prison sentences.

A new report from the US Sentencing Commission studying federal offenders from the US Bureau of Prisons offers data indicating that the odds of recidivism were approximately 29 percent lower for offenders sentenced to more than 120 months of incarceration compared to a matched group of federal offenders receiving shorter sentences.

In comparison, the average time served in prison for violent state offenders is less than three years per the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Per US Sentencing Commission data, any prison sentence less than five years doesn’t reduce recidivism.

We’ve repeatedly been told by advocates and some within the criminological community that incarceration doesn’t impact public safety. If fact, some suggest that prison makes conditions worse.

It’s rare for any criminal justice intervention to approach a thirty percent reduction whether it be a police or correctional initiative. Most rehabilitation programs fail. When they work, the percentage reductions are usually 10-20 percent at best.

When reviewing overall state recidivism statistics from the Bureau of Justice Statistics showing that released offenders commit over two million new crimes, it seems impossible not to come to a conclusion that long-term imprisonment does not reduce crime.

Readers should note that rates and numbers for state incarceration have fallen to historic lows. The incarcerated population fell to its lowest level since 2003.

Recidivism 

The most common understanding of recidivism is based on state data from the US Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, stating that two-thirds (68 percent) of prisoners released were arrested for a new crime within three years of release from prison, and three-quarters (77 percent) were arrested within five years.

Within 3 years of release, 49.7% of inmates either had an arrest that resulted in a conviction with a disposition of a prison sentence or were returned to prison without a new conviction because they violated a technical condition of their release, as did 55.1% of inmates within 5 years of release.

A ten-year study from the Bureau of Justice Statistics shows that 82% were arrested at least once during the 10 years following release. Offenders committed well over two million new crimes.

About 61% of prisoners released in 2008 returned to prison within 10 years for a parole or probation violation or a new sentence.

US Sentencing Commission Study-Published June 2022

This study, the seventh in the recidivism series, examines the relationship between the length of incarceration and recidivism. In 2020, the Commission published its initial comprehensive study on the length of incarceration and recidivism. In that study, which examined offenders released in 2005, the Commission found that federal offenders receiving sentences of more than 60 months were less likely to recidivate compared to a similar group of offenders receiving shorter sentences.

This study replicates the prior analysis, however, it examines a more current cohort of federal offenders released in 2010. This study examines the relationship between length of incarceration and recidivism, specifically exploring three potential relationships that may exist: incarceration as having a deterrent effect, a criminogenic effect, or no effect on recidivism.

This study examines 32,135 federal offenders who satisfied the following criteria:

United States citizens;

Re-entered the community during 2010 after discharging their sentence of incarceration or by commencing a term of probation;

Not reported dead, escaped, or detained;

Have valid FBI numbers which could be located in criminal history repositories (in at least one state, the District of Columbia, or federal records).

Key Findings

The results of this study, examining federal offenders released in 2010, are almost identical to the findings established in prior Commission research examining federal offenders released in 2005. In both studies, the odds of recidivism were lower for federal offenders sentenced to more than 60 months incarceration compared to a matched group of offenders receiving shorter sentences.

The odds of recidivism were approximately 29 percent lower for federal offenders sentenced to more than 120 months incarceration compared to a matched group of federal offenders receiving shorter sentences.

The odds of recidivism were approximately 18 percent lower for offenders sentenced to more than 60 months up to 120 months incarceration compared to a matched group of federal offenders receiving shorter sentences.

For federal offenders sentenced to 60 months or less incarceration, the Commission did not find any statistically significant differences in recidivism.

Source

US Sentencing Commission

Conclusions

Advocates and many within the criminological community strongly dispute any notion that incarceration and long-term prison sentences create a safer society. Based on Bureau of Justice Statistics recidivism data and a new-replicated study from the US Sentencing Commission, it’s obvious that most former inmates, regardless of state or federal incarceration, continue to commit new crimes in large numbers.

Note that there are differences between mostly violent state inmates and federal offenders.  Federal inmates are principally incarcerated for major drug crimes and immigration offenses.

The US Sentencing Commission also found that offenders who used violence or weapons in conjunction with the instant offense or in prior offenses have much higher rates of recidivism than offenders and adds to our understanding of state inmate reoffending.

Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the overwhelming percentage of new state returns to the justice system is based on new crimes, not technical violations. A full report on recidivism from the US Sentencing Commission finds the same result.

Yes, society pays an extended social price for incarceration, and yes, not all who violate the law can or should be incarcerated, but the numbers simply seem overwhelming that long-term incarceration for repeat and/or violent-weapons offenders reduces crime.

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