Highlights For New Crime Data-2021
There is no doubt that homicides increased significantly in the United States in 2021, and this is after record increases in 2020. Homicides have been traditionally used as an indicator of overall violent crime. There are huge increases (42-49 percent) in homicides since 2019 per reputable sources. Per data, other forms of violence increased.
Per media accounts, there are endless reports that crime and violence are up in multiple locations throughout the United States in 2021 and 2022. The sense of vulnerability and fear within the American public will have a major impact on the midterm election.
Yet it’s the official position of the US Department of Justice via the FBI and the National Crime Victimization Survey that overall violent crime was flat for 2021. This article addresses new data and its complexities.
Author
Editor’s Note
I use select and rearranged quotes for all sources for brevity.
The use of italicized words is mine.
A complete overview of crime in the United States since 2015 is available from this site.
I use 2019 data as a baseline for some crime statistics because it’s offered that way by reputable sources.
The 2021 Yearly National Crime Data from The USDOJ Was Released In The Fall of 2022
Yearly data from the FBI (the National Incident-Based Reporting System) and the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey (the two principal sources of federal crime numbers) was submitted for 2021 in the fall of 2022. This article summarizes that data. Yearly data for 2022 will be released in the fall of 2023.
I also offer statistics from the Centers For Disease Control (CDC), Gallup, and other sources for 2021 for comparison purposes.
The Complexity Of Understanding Crime Data
There is much more to this story than homicides. I wish there was a simpler way of presenting the data below. People just want to know if violence is up or down. Yes, understanding crime in the United States is confusing. Sometimes massively so.
I try to make it as simple as possible to comprehend crime data which means I leave out some methodologies and variables for the FBI’s new National Incident-Based Reporting System and the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey. Both are US Department of Justice agencies.
The latest national crime data for 2021 from the FBI (crimes reported to law enforcement) makes the term “complex” an understatement. The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) National Crime Victimization Survey offerings (a survey of all crimes) are equally hard to comprehend (examples below).
Is Violence Really Flat For 2021?
Per the FBI, homicides and rapes are up. Property crime is level while robberies are down.
But there is data from additional reputable sources (i.e., the CDC) stating that gun-related homicides, aggravated assaults, and other forms of crime increased in 2021 yet the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics state that overall violent crime was flat.
So what gives?
To make a long story short, the FBI’s new National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) in 2021 is supported by only 52 percent of the nation’s law enforcement agencies supplying a full year’s worth of data, and major contributors (i.e., New York-Los Angeles police) did not submit data.
BJS numbers can be equally bewildering. In 2020, the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey offered record decreases in violence while the FBI recorded record increases in homicides. Other forms of violent crime increased per the FBI. These figures came after an explosion of crime and violence after COVID lockdowns were lifted.
Latest Crime Numbers-FBI Press Release-October 5, 2022
Overall, the analysis shows violent and property crimes remained consistent between 2020 and 2021.
While the aggregate estimated violent crime volume decreased 1% for the nation from 1,326,600 in 2020 to 1,313,200 in 2021, the estimated number of murders increased from 22,000 in 2020 to 22,900 in 2021.
The increase in murders constitutes a 4.3% increase.
The robbery rate decreased 8.9% from 2020 to 2021, which heavily contributed to the decrease in overall violent crime despite increases in murder and rape rates at the national level.
It is important to note that these estimated trends are not considered statistically significant by NIBRS estimation methods. The nonsignificant nature of the observed trends is why, despite these described changes, the overall message is that crime remained consistent.
Source
The complete analysis of the National Incident-Based Reporting System is located on the UCR’s Crime Data Explorer. Editor’s note-the complexity of using the Crime Data Explorer is immense.
But The CDC Provides A Different Percentage Increase of “Firearm” Homicides-Record Increases
From CNN: 2021 US firearm homicide and suicide rates were highest since the 1990s, CDC data shows.
US firearm homicide and suicide rates each increased by more than 8% from 2020 to 2021, according to data published Thursday in the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.
CDC researchers estimated that there were over 20,000 firearm homicides and over 26,000 firearm suicides in the United States in 2021. The firearm homicide rate was 8.3% higher in 2021 than it was in 2020.
There were increases among males and females and the highest rate tended to be among 25- to 44-year-olds. All racial and ethnic populations in that age group experienced increases and non-Hispanic Black or African American people continued to experience the highest firearm homicide rates for every age.
The percentage of homicides attributed to firearm injuries rose from 79% in 2020 to 81% in 2021, the highest percentage in more than 50 years.“
The overall U.S. firearm homicide and firearm suicide rates in 2021 were the highest documented since 1993 and 1990, respectively,” the report said.
My view: many believe that the CDC’s numbers are far more accurate than current FBI figures.
Source
Why The CDC’s Homicide Numbers Are More Accurate that The FBI’s Data
From CNN: The FBI just released its 2021 Crime in the Nation Report, which is typically the most comprehensive snapshot of crime in the United States. But only 63% of the nation’s more than 18,000 law enforcement agencies submitted data for 2021 — the lowest level of participation the FBI has reported since at least 1979. Only 52% of all agencies submitted a full year’s worth of data, the FBI said.
A change in how the FBI requires agencies to report crimes in 2021 has led participation to plummet. Participation is voluntary and several of the biggest police departments in the country, including the LAPD and NYPD, did not submit any data at all to the FBI last year, according to the agency. The agencies that submitted at least partial data serve about 65% of the country’s population.
A detailed overview of the problems in participation is documented in the CNN article. In summation, the National Incident-Based Reporting System requires a complex collection of new variables that many law enforcement agencies haven’t been able to comply with.
Source
New National Crime Data From The Bureau Of Justice Statistics-2021
The Bureau Of Justice Statistics (BJS) National Crime Victimization Survey is an accounting of “all” crimes using a survey of American households much like the national census. For example, 46 percent of violent crimes are reported (up from 40 percent in 2020). It’s much less for property crimes. BJS has its own complications, possibly due to COVID, and how that impacts data collection through surveys.
Homicides are not included because you can’t interview dead people.
BJS Results for 2021-Released in September 2022:
From 2020 to 2021, the violent victimization rate increased from 19.0 to 24.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons in urban areas while remaining unchanged in suburban or rural areas.
The rate of serious (excluding common assaults) violent victimization in urban areas increased.
The overall violent victimization rate for the nation did not change between 2020 and 2021.
Increasing Crime In 2021 From Other Reputable Sources
As of this writing, we have statistics from the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey, and the CDC for 2021. News reports indicate a growing problem with homicides and other forms of violent crime.
CBS: Homicides in major American cities ticked up in 2021, with a 5% increase from 2020 and a 44% increase over 2019.
Gallup: There is a big increase in the criminal victimization of urban households in 2021, 30 percent compared to 22 percent in 2020. Seven percent of urban residents were violently victimized compared to 3% of U.S. adults. The majority of Americans live in urban areas. The collective data (urban crime victimization-computer crime) indicates a growing crime problem for at least half of American households, Gallup.
CNN: So far, 2021 is on pace to be the worst year for gun violence in decades, surpassing even the high levels last year. More than two-thirds of the country’s most populous cities have seen more homicides in 2021 than last year, a continuation of the troubling increase in homicides that began at the onset of the pandemic in 2020, according to a CNN analysis of over 40 major cities, CNN.
Gun Violence: According to the Gun Violence Archive, from January 1 to September 15, a total of 14,516 people died from gun violence in the US. That’s 1,300 more than during the same period in 2020, a 9% increase. Mass shootings are also on the rise. Through September 15, there have been 498 mass shootings across the US, or an average of about 1.92 per day. That’s 15% higher than last year, when there were a total of 611, a rate of 1.67 per day, according to data from the GVA.
Police Executive Research Forum: According to a survey of 157 police agencies by the Police Executive Research Forum, the total number of homicides increased by 12 percent in the first nine months of 2021, compared to the same period in 2020. That represented more than half the increase recorded in a similar period between 2020 and 2019. Hijackings also increased and robberies continued to decline, The Crime Report.
COVID and Crime: During the first quarter of 2021, homicide rates declined from their peak in the summer of 2020, but remained above levels in the first quarter of prior years. The number of homicides rose by 24% compared to the first quarter of 2020 (an increase of 193 homicides) and by 49% compared to the first quarter of 2019 (an increase of 324 homicides).
Aggravated and gun assault rates were also higher in the first quarter of 2021 than in the same period of 2020. Aggravated assault rates increased 7%, while gun assault rates went up by 22%, COVID and Crime.
Reuters: In the first quarter of 2021, the research showed, the murder rate had declined from a peak the previous summer but was still up 24 percent over the first quarter of 2020, Reuters.
Council on Criminal Justice: This year, the number of casualties, along with the overall number of shootings that have killed or injured at least one person, exceeds those of the first five months of 2020, which finished as the deadliest year of gun violence in at least two decades.
The number of homicides increased by 16% during the first half of 2021 – 259 more homicides – compared to the same period the year before, and by 42% – claiming an additional 548 additional lives – compared to the same time frame in 2019. The increase in homicide slowed between the first and second quarters of 2021.
The aggravated assault rate was 9% higher in the first half of 2021 than during the same period in 2020, and the gun assault rate was 5% higher in the first half of 2021 than the year before. Motor vehicle theft rates were 21% higher in the first half of 2021 than the year before.
Other major crimes declined. Robbery (-6%), residential burglary (-9%), nonresidential burglary (-9%), larceny (-6%), and drug offense (-12%) rates dropped from the same period in 2020, Council on Criminal Justice.
Conclusions
If The FBI and BJS state that violence did not increase in 2021, how are we to interpret conflicting data? How are we to understand record increases in fear of crime? Why is growing violence a staple of everyday news reporting?
I assume that readers may be bewildered by the data and explanations above. You can’t read the morning newspaper without being exposed to continuing increases in crime and violence. All people want to know is whether overall crime and violence are up or down in 2021. 2022 yearly data won’t be released until the fall of 2023.
It’s clear from the FBI and CDC that homicides are up considerably and are at record levels which is astounding because homicides hit a record level last year with a near 30 percent increase in 2020 per the FBI.
2021 US firearm homicides (81 percent of murders) were the highest since the 1990s, CDC data shows.
Per Gallup, there is a big increase in the criminal victimization of urban households in 2021, 30 percent compared to 22 percent in 2020. Seven percent of urban residents were violently victimized compared to 3% of U.S. adults. The collective data (urban crime victimization-computer crime) indicates a growing crime problem for at least half of American households.
Per the Bureau Of Justice Statistics, violence and serious violence were up for 2021 in urban areas.
Per other reputable sources, there were increases in aggravated assaults, firearm assaults, and motor vehicle thefts.
What To Make Of All This?
There doesn’t seem to be any doubt that homicides increased significantly in the United States in 2021, and this is after record increases in 2020. Note that homicides have been traditionally used in the past as an indicator of overall violent crime.
Per The Major Chiefs Association for 2022, compared to 2019 midyear figures, cities experienced a 50% increase in homicides and a roughly 36% increase in aggravated assaults.
Fear of crime is at record levels. Firearm and security sales are going through the roof. Crime is one of the highest concerns for midterm voters.
Crime and violence are up in urban areas in 2021 per the National Crime Victimization Survey “and” much of the data above comes from cities.
There are endless media reports that crime and violence are up in multiple locations throughout the United States in 2021 and 2022.
Yet it’s the official position of the US Department of Justice via the FBI and the National Crime Victimization Survey that overall violent crime was flat for 2021. I’m not sure that anyone in America believes this based on the above.
See More
See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.
Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.
US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.
National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.
An Overview Of Data On Mental Health at Mental Health And Crime.
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