2024
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Background
A repository for summations of all major recidivism research and studies with policy implications.
Keywords include reentry, offender reentry, recidivism, and offender recidivism.
Author
By Leonard A. Sipes, Jr.
Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years directing award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet.
Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council.
Former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University.
A video podcast is available on YouTube.
New Study
Readers may want to review an article titled Build More Prisons from The City Journal published in December of 2024. It provides a balanced overview of new incarceration and rehabilitation program data.
Background
This article started with a reader’s request; she asked about the recidivism of people released from prison. She wanted to know about overall recidivism regardless of program participation.
The topic of recidivism is confusing with endless variables to consider, which is why it’s important to place all major recidivism studies in one place. The data below are (with one exception) from federal agencies with large study populations using approved methodologies.
Recidivism is based on those released from prison who are arrested, convicted, or incarcerated once again.
Yes, there are studies on recidivism focusing on single programs with small numbers not included here. My goal was to include big, sweeping studies that have clear policy implications mostly funded by the US Department of Justice. Note that the US Sentencing Commission creates recidivism reports on specific kinds of offenders (i.e., violent or firearm).
If you are looking for individual program analysis, I suggest using Crime Solutions.Gov from the US Department of Justice.
Note that the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice will automatically reroute some study addresses (URLs-sources) to their main page for older studies. Please use the search box to find cited studies. The names for all studies are included.
This Report Summarizes The Principle Recidivism Studies As To:
1. Federal inmates (with some comparisons to state inmates) by the US Sentencing Commission and the Bureau Of Justice Statistics. Note that I started to include program-specific studies from the US Sentencing Commission in 2022 because of the large number of US Bureau of Prisons participants reviewed. Also note that the US Bureau of Prison inmates studied are different from state offenders. States principally hold violent offenders whereas Bureau of Prisons inmates are mostly immigration and drug offenders.
2. State inmates as reported by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, US Department of Justice
3. One recidivism study offered by Pew
4. There is one study on recidivism for those on probation by the Bureau of Justice Statistics.
5. There is one study from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (not from the US Sentencing Commission) addressing recidivism while on federal parole and probation.
The Most Common Understanding
The most common understanding of recidivism is based on state data from the US Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, stating that two-thirds (68 percent) of prisoners released were arrested for a new crime within three years of release from prison, and three-quarters (77 percent) were arrested within five years.
Within 3 years of release, 49.7% of inmates either had an arrest that resulted in a conviction with a disposition of a prison sentence or were returned to prison without a new conviction because they violated a technical condition of their release, as did 55.1% of inmates within 5 years of release.
A ten-year study from the Bureau of Justice Statistics shows that 82% were arrested at least once during the 10 years following release. Offenders committed well over two million new crimes. About 61% of prisoners released in 2008 returned to prison within 10 years for a parole or probation violation or a new sentence.
Do Programs Addressing Offender Recidivism Work?
The short answer is either no or they didn’t show large declines.
Most programs don’t work and when they do, the effect is often a ten-twenty percent (or less) reduction in recidivism. Programs at times may show statistically significant reductions but statistical significance (i.e., the results have precisely measured the intervention) doesn’t necessarily mean that the program or intervention worked well.
Per a exhaustive literature review funded by the US Department of Justice, the most successful program is cognitive-behavioral therapy, which averaged a twenty percent reduction.
The substance abuse evaluation summarized below by the US Sentencing Commission stated that participants who completed the program were 27 percent less likely to recidivate.
The bottom line is that the vast majority of offenders participating in programs saw no decline in recidivism, Do Offender Recidivism Programs Work? However, cognitive behavioral therapy and federal substance abuse programs seemed to work better than other interventions.
I’m not suggesting that states and the federal prison system should not offer programs. Programs can be provided on humanitarian grounds. Teaching people how to read or obtaining a GED or occupational skill or the provision of mental health or substance abuse efforts are all in society’s best interests “and” they make prisons safer and saner places for both inmates and correctional staff.
What I am suggesting is that there is little evidence that programs significantly reduce recidivism through new arrests or incarcerations. The data on rehabilitation programs indicate that most offenders will fail and return to the justice system.
My book: “A Must Have Book,” Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization now available at Amazon, Barnes and Nobel plus other sources.
Federal Recidivism Studies
Federal Recidivism-US Sentencing Commission-September 2021
This report is the first in a series continuing the Commission’s research of the recidivism of federal offenders. It provides an overview of the recidivism of federal offenders released from incarceration or sentenced to a term of probation in 2010, combining data regularly collected by the Commission with data compiled from criminal history records from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). This report provides an overview of recidivism for these offenders and information on key offender and offense characteristics related to recidivism. This report also compares recidivism outcomes for offenders released in 2010 to federal offenders released in 2005. In the future, the Commission will release additional publications discussing specific topics concerning recidivism of federal offenders.
The final study group of 32,135 offenders satisfied the following criteria:
United States citizens;
Re-entered the community during 2010 after discharging their sentence of incarceration or by commencing a term of probation in 2010;
Not reported dead, escaped, or detained;
Have valid FBI numbers that could be located in criminal history repositories (in at least one state, the District of Columbia, or federal records).
The recidivism rate remained unchanged for federal offenders released in 2010 compared to offenders released in 2005 despite two intervening major developments in the federal criminal justice system: the Supreme Court’s decision in Booker and increased use of evidence-based practices in federal supervision.
Over an eight-year follow-up period, nearly one-half (49.3%) of federal offenders released in 2010 were rearrested, the same rate for offenders released in 2005 (49.3%).
Other recidivism patterns also were consistent for the two offender cohorts.
For offenders who were rearrested, the median time to arrest was 19 months. The largest proportion (18.2%) of offenders were rearrested for the first time during the first year following release. In each subsequent year, fewer offenders were rearrested for the first time than in previous years. Most offenders in the study were rearrested prior to the end of supervision terms. Of those offenders who were sentenced to a term of supervision and rearrested, 76.3 percent were rearrested earlier than the expiration of their originally imposed supervision term
Assault was the most common (20.7%) offense at rearrest. The second most common offense was drug trafficking (11.3%), followed by: larceny (8.7%), probation, parole, and supervision violations (8.1%), and administration of justice offenses (7.5%).
Combined, violent offenses comprised approximately one-third of rearrests; 31.4 percent of offenders were rearrested for assault (20.7%), robbery (4.5%), murder (2.3%), other violent offense (2.3%), or sexual assault (1.6%).
Similar to findings in its previous studies, the Commission found age and Criminal History Category (CHC) were strongly associated with rearrests.
Offenders in CHC I (the least serious CHC) had the lowest rearrest rates (30.2%) and offenders in CHC VI (the most serious CHC) had the highest rearrest rates (76.2%).
In addition, nearly three-quarters (72.5%) of offenders younger than age 21 upon release were rearrested during the study period compared to 15.9 percent of offenders aged 60 and older.
Combined, the impact of CHC and age on recidivism was even stronger. During the eight-year follow-up period, 100 percent of offenders who were younger than 21 at the time of release and in CHC IV, V, and VI (the most serious CHCs) were rearrested. In contrast, only 9.4 percent of offenders in CHC I (the least serious CHC) who were aged 60 and older at release were rearrested.
Offenders sentenced for firearms and robbery offenses had the highest rearrest rates during the eight-year follow-up period, with 70.6 percent and 63.2 percent, respectively. In contrast, offenders sentenced for fraud, theft, or embezzlement had the lowest rearrest rate (35.5%).
Source
US Sentencing Commission
Federal Recidivism, Study Of Vocational Programs-US Sentencing Commission-June 2022
This report is the sixth in a series continuing the Commission’s study of the recidivism of federal offenders released in 2010. In this report, the Commission provides an analysis of data on the recidivism of federal offenders who participated in Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) vocational programs while incarcerated.
The study examines whether completion of vocational programs offered by the BOP impacted recidivism among a cohort of federal offenders who were released from prison in calendar year 2010. The report combines data regularly collected by the Commission, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) criminal history records, and data on program completion and participation provided by the BOP.
In this report, Vocational Program Participants were offenders who participated in one of the following programs:
Occupational Education Program (OEP)
The first group comprises 7,310 offenders who participated in at least one OEP vocational or technical training course.
OEP offers a variety of programs where participants can take courses in vocational and occupationally oriented areas for the purpose of obtaining marketable skills.
Federal Prison Industries (FPI)
The second group comprises 5,082 offenders who participated in FPI.
FPI provides offenders with work simulation programs and training opportunities through the factories it operates at BOP facilities.
Key Findings
Occupational Education Programs (OEP)
Although the recidivism rate for offenders who completed an OEP course was lower than that of offenders who did not participate in an OEP course (48.3% compared to 54.1%), the difference in their recidivism rates was not statistically significant after controlling for key offender and offense characteristics such as criminal history category, age at release, gender, and crime type.
Federal Prison Industries (FPI)
Although the recidivism rate for offenders who participated in FPI was higher than that of offenders who did not participate in FPI (55.0% compared to 52.0%), the difference in recidivism rates was not statistically significant after controlling for key offender and offense characteristics, such as criminal history category, age at release, gender, and crime type.
Source
Federal Recidivism, Study Of Substance Abuse Programs-US Sentencing Commission-May 2022
This report is the fifth in a series continuing the Commission’s study of the recidivism of federal offenders released in 2010. In this report, the Commission provides an analysis of data on the recidivism of federal offenders who participated in Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) drug abuse treatment while incarcerated.
The study examines whether completion of drug programs offered by the BOP impacted recidivism among a cohort of federal offenders who were released from prison in calendar year 2010. The report combines data regularly collected by the Commission, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) criminal history records, and data on program completion and participation provided by the BOP.
In this report, Drug Program Participants were offenders who participated in one of the following programs:
Residential Drug Abuse Program (RDAP)
The first group comprises 8,474 offenders who the BOP marked as eligible to participate in RDAP while serving time in BOP custody.
RDAP is the BOP’s “most intensive” drug treatment program and requires that participants receive treatment in a specialized unit that houses only RDAP participants.
Non-Residential Drug Abuse Program (NRDAP)
The second group comprises 4,446 offenders who were marked as eligible to participate in NRDAP.
NRDAP consists of drug treatment, conducted primarily in a group setting, over the course of 12 to 24 weeks.
Key Findings
This study observed a significant reduction in the likelihood of recidivism for offenders who completed the Residential Drug Abuse Treatment Program or the Non-Residential Drug Abuse Treatment Program.
RDAP Completers had lower rates of recidivism, compared to eligible offenders who did not complete or participate in the program. Less than half of RDAP Completers (48.2%) recidivated in the eight-year follow-up period of this study, compared to 68.0 percent of RDAP Eligible Non-Participants.
RDAP Completers were 27 percent less likely to recidivate compared to RDAP-Eligible Non-Participants.
RDAP Completers had higher post-release rates of drug-related recidivism, compared to RDAP Participants and RDAP Eligible Non-Participants.
NRDAP Completers had lower recidivism rates compared to offenders who did not complete or participate in the program. Nearly half (49.9%) of offenders who completed NRDAP recidivated during the study period, compared to over half (54.0%) of NRDAP Eligible Non-Participants.
NRDAP Completers were 17 percent less likely to recidivate compared to eligible non-participants and offenders with a history of substance abuse who served at least five months in BOP custody.
Source
US Sentencing Commission
Federal Recidivism, Age, and Other Factors-US Sentencing Commission-December 2017
Overall Recidivism: For offenders age 24 or younger at the time of release, 63.2 percent of federal prisoners were rearrested within five years compared to over four-fifths (84.1%) of state prisoners. To my knowledge, 84 percent is the largest percentage of recidivism ever recorded in federal publications without including criminal history. I have seen slightly higher rates of recidivism for state reports without age categories. Higher rates for criminal histories are below.
Highest Percent for Older Offenders: For offenders in Criminal History Category VI (serious criminal history), the rearrest rate ranged from 89.7 percent for offenders younger than age 30 at the time of release to 37.7 percent for offenders age 60 or older. To my knowledge, 38 percent is the highest percentage of recidivism for offenders over the age of sixty ever recorded.
College Graduates and Recidivism: Among offenders under age 30 at the time of release, college graduates had a substantially lower rearrest rate (27.0%) than offenders who did not complete high school (74.4%). To my knowledge, this is the first federal report indicating a substantial decrease in recidivism based on education or graduating from college.
Firearms Offenders: Firearms offenders had a substantially higher rearrest rate across all age categories than drug trafficking offenders, who in turn had a higher rearrest rate across all age categories than fraud offenders. For example, for offenders under age 30 at the time of release, the rearrest rates was 79.3 percent.
Time to Arrest: Offenders who were younger than 30 when they were released had the shortest median time to rearrest (17 months). Conversely, the oldest offenders in the study, those 60 years and older, had the longest time to rearrest (28 months).
Reconviction: The reconviction rate is highest among offenders younger than 21 (48.5%) and those between the ages of 21 to 24 years old (48.4%) and declined in each subsequent age group.
Reincarceration: The reincarceration rate was highest among those between the ages of 21 to 24 years old (38.6%) and declined in each subsequent age group.
Race: White offenders had the lowest rearrest rate overall, starting with 59.1 percent for the youngest age group and declining to a low of 15.7 percent in the 60 years or older age cohort. Black offenders had the highest rearrest rate overall, starting with 72.7 percent in the youngest age cohort, which is the highest recidivism rate among all age categories.
Sex: Male offenders had a higher rearrest rate than female offenders in every age category. In the younger than 30 age cohort, men had a 69.5 percent rearrest rate compared to 47.6 percent for women.
Robbery Offenders: Robbery offenders, unlike all other offense types, did not experience a continuous decline in rearrest rates as they aged. Instead, rearrest rates increased from the younger than 30 age cohort (66.2%) to the 40 to 49 age cohort (71.5%) before experiencing a sharp decline.
Source:
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders
Federal Offenders and Recidivism-US Sentencing Commission-March 2016
This report provides a broad overview of key findings from the United States Sentencing Commission’s study of recidivism of federal offenders.
The Commission studied offenders who were either released from federal prison after serving a sentence of imprisonment or placed on a term of probation in 2005.
Nearly half (49.3%) of such offenders were rearrested within eight years for either a new crime or for some other violation of the condition of their probation or release conditions.
This report discusses the Commission’s recidivism research project and provides many additional findings from that project. In the future, the Commission will release additional publications discussing specific topics concerning recidivism of federal offenders. (March 2016)
The offenders studied in this project are 25,431 federal offenders.
Key Findings:
The key findings of the Commission’s study are:
Over an eight-year follow-up period, almost one-half of federal offenders released in 2005 (49.3%) were rearrested for a new crime or rearrested for a violation of supervision conditions.
Almost one-third (31.7%) of the offenders were also reconvicted, and one-quarter (24.6%) of the offenders were reincarcerated over the same study period.
Offenders released from incarceration in 2005 had a rearrest rate of 52.5 percent, while offenders released directly to a probationary sentence had a rearrest rate of 35.1 percent.
Of those offenders who recidivated, most did so within the first two years of the eight-year follow-up period. The median time to rearrest was 21 months.
About one-fourth of those rearrested had an assault rearrest as their most serious charge over the study period. Other common most serious offenses were drug trafficking, larceny, and public order offenses.
A federal offender’s criminal history was closely correlated with recidivism rates. Rearrest rates range from 30.2 percent for offenders with zero total criminal history points to 80.1 percent of offenders in the highest Criminal History Category, VI. Each additional criminal history point was generally associated with a greater likelihood of recidivism.
A federal offender’s age at the time of release into the community was also closely associated with differences in recidivism rates. Offenders released prior to age 21 had the highest rearrest rate, 67.6 percent, while offenders over sixty years old at the time of release had a recidivism rate of 16.0 percent with the exception of very short sentences (less than 6 months),
The rate of recidivism varies very little by the length of prison sentence imposed (fluctuating between 50.8% for sentences between 6 months to 2 years, to a high of 55.5% for sentences between 5 to 9 years).
Other factors, including offense type and educational level, were associated with differing rates of recidivism but less so than age and criminal history.
Source:
Recidivism Among Federal Offenders: A Comprehensive Overview
Federal Offender Recidivism-Bureau of Justice Statistics-June 2016
Of the nearly 43,000 federal offenders who were placed on federal community supervision in fiscal year 2005, an estimated 43 percent were arrested at least once within five years of their placement per the Bureau of Justice Statistics.
During their criminal careers prior to being placed on federal community supervision in 2005, these offenders were arrested approximately 210,000 times.
Federal law enforcement agencies accounted for approximately 24% of all prior arrests. State and local law enforcement agencies were responsible for the other 76% of prior arrests.
Almost 45% of federal offenders placed on community supervision in 2005 had 4 or more prior arrests.
An estimated 18 percent of these offenders were arrested at least once within one year of placement on community supervision and 35 percent were arrested at least once within three years of placement.
An estimated 80 percent of offenders who were placed on federal community supervision in 2005 were male. More than a third (41 percent) were white and nearly a third (31 percent) were black. An estimated 28 percent were age 29 or younger and about 42 percent were age 40 or older.
Among federal offenses, public order offenses, such as probation violations, accounted for 90 percent of first arrests of federal offenders after placement on community supervision, compared to 33 percent of first arrests for nonfederal offenses.
In comparing federal and state prisoners placed on community supervision, almost half (47 percent) of federal prisoners were arrested within five years, compared to more than three-quarters (77 percent) of state prisoners.
Nearly a third (32 percent) of federal prisoners returned to prison within five years of their release to community supervision, compared to more than half (59 percent) of the state prisoners.
Nearly a quarter (23 percent) of federal offenders on community supervision were directly sentenced to probation, while more than three-quarters (77 percent) began a term of community supervision following release from prison.
An estimated 70 percent of federal offenders on community supervision had at least one prior nonfederal arrest, and more than a third (35 percent) had four or more prior nonfederal arrests.
Source
Recidivism of Offenders Placed on Federal Community Supervision in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 is available at the Bureau of Justice Statistics.
State Recidivism Reports-Bureau of Justice Statistics
September-2021-Bureau of Justice Statistics Summation-Ten Years After Release
82% were arrested at least once during the 10 years following release.
Prisoners released in 2008 had a median of nine prior arrests and five prior convictions in their criminal history.
40% of persons released from prison in 2008 were arrested for a violent offense.
An estimated 2.2 million arrests occurred among the approximately 409,300 persons released from prison across 24 states in 2008.
Nearly 7 in 10 state prisoners released across 22 states had an arrest within 10 years that led to a conviction
Summation
Among persons released from state prisons in 2008 across 24 states, 82% were arrested at least once during the 10 years following release.
The annual arrest percentage among persons released from prison in 2012 declined over time, with 43% arrested at least once in Year 1 of their release, 29% arrested in Year 5, and 22% arrested in Year 10.
This is BJS’s first recidivism study with a 10-year follow-up period.
One-quarter (25%) of persons released from prison across 24 states in 2008 had been serving time for a violent offense. Nearly the same percentage of persons released from prison in 2008 had been serving time for property and drug offenses (30% each), and the remaining 16% had been serving time for public order offenses.
Prisoners released in 2008 had a median of nine prior arrests and five prior convictions in their criminal history.
Post-Release Arrests
During the study’s 10-year follow-up period, an estimated 2.2 million arrests occurred among the approximately 409,300 persons released from prison across 24 states in 2008.
Sixteen percent were arrested within 10 years outside of the state that released them.
Males (83%) were more likely than females (76%) to be arrested within 10 years of release.
Ninety percent of prisoners who were age 24 or younger at the time of release in 2008 were arrested within 10 years of release. A smaller percentage of those who were ages 25 to 39 (85%) and age 40 or older (75%) at the time of release were arrested within 10 years of release.
Persons released from prison in 2008 after serving time for a violent offense (77%) were less likely to be arrested for any offense than prisoners released after serving time for other types of offenses within 10 years.
During this period, 4 in 10 (40%) persons released from prison in 2008 were arrested for a violent offense.
Nearly half of persons released from prison in 2008 were arrested for a property (47%) or drug (47%) offense within 10 years.
Among persons released from prison in 2008 in the 18 states with data on persons returned to prison, about half (49%) had a parole or probation violation or an arrest that led to a new sentence within 3 years, a rate that increased to about 6 in 10 (61%) within 10 years.
A greater percentage of prisoners age 24 or younger (69%) than those ages 25 to 39 (64%) or age 40 or older (53%) at release had returned to prison within 10 years.
Source
July-2021-Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 34 States in 2012: A 5-Year Follow-Up Period
Among state prisoners released in 2012 across 34 states, 62% were arrested within 3 years, and 71% were arrested within 5 years.
Among prisoners released in 2012 across 21 states with available data on persons returned to prison, 39% had either a parole or probation violation or an arrest for a new offense within 3 years that led to imprisonment, and 46% had a parole or probation violation or an arrest within 5 years that led to imprisonment.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) used prisoner records from the National Corrections Reporting Program and criminal history data to analyze the post-release offending patterns of former prisoners both within and outside of the state where they were imprisoned. This study randomly sampled about 92,100 released prisoners to represent the approximately 408,300 state prisoners released across 34 states in 2012.
These 34 states were responsible for 79% of all persons released from state prisons that year nationwide.
Summation
About 6 in 10 (62%) prisoners released across 34 states in 2012 were arrested within 3 years, and 7 in 10 (71%) were arrested within 5 years.
Nearly half (46%) of prisoners released in 2012 returned to prison within 5 years for a parole or probation violation or a new sentence.
Eleven percent of prisoners released in 2012 were arrested within 5 years outside of the state that released them.
Eighty-one percent of prisoners age 24 or younger at release in 2012 were arrested within 5 years of release, compared to 74% of those ages 25 to 39 and 61% of those age 40 or older.
During the 5-year follow-up period, an estimated 1.1 million arrests occurred among the approximately 408,300 prisoners released in 2012.
Sixty-two percent of drug offenders released from prison in 2012 were arrested for a nondrug crime within 5 years.
The annual arrest percentage of prisoners released in 2012 declined from 37% in Year 1 to 26% in Year 5.
Of prisoners released in the 19 states in the 2005, 2008, and 2012 recidivism studies, the percentage arrested within 5 years declined from 77% of 2005 releases to 75% of 2008 releases, to 71% of 2012 releases.
Source
June 2018 Study from the Bureau of Justice Statistics Following Prison Releases for Nine Years. Five out of Six Arrested
The 401,288 state prisoners released in 2005 had an estimated 1,994,000 arrests during the 9-year period, an average of 5 arrests per released prisoner.
Five out of six released offenders were rearrested.
The vast majority of arrestees were not related to technical violations.
Sixty percent of these arrests occurred during years 4 through 9.
An estimated 68% of released prisoners were arrested within 3 years, 79% within 6 years, and 83% within 9 years.
Almost half (47%) of prisoners who did not have an arrest within 3 years of release were arrested during years 4 through 9.
More than three-quarters (77%) of released drug offenders were arrested for a non-drug crime within 9 years.
Forty-four percent of released prisoners were arrested during the first year following release, while 24% were arrested during year-9.
Eighty-two percent of prisoners arrested during the 9-year period were arrested within the first 3 years.
Five percent of prisoners were arrested during the first year after release and not arrested again during the 9-year follow-up period.
During each year and cumulatively in the 9-year follow-up period, released property offenders were more likely to be arrested than released violent offenders.
Eight percent of prisoners arrested during the first year after release were arrested outside the state that released them, compared to 14% of prisoners arrested during year-9.
Source
April 2014 Study from the Bureau of Justice Statistics Following Prison Releases for Three and Five Years:
An estimated two-thirds (68 percent) of 405,000 prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 were arrested for a new crime within three years of release from prison, and three-quarters (77 percent) were arrested within five years, per the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS).
More than a third (37 percent) of prisoners who were arrested within five years of release were arrested within the first six months after release, with more than half (57 percent) arrested by the end of the first year.
These findings are based on a BJS data collection, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005, which tracked a sample of former prison inmates from 30 states for five years following release in 2005.
During the five years after release, prisoners in the study were arrested about 1.2 million times across the country. A sixth (16 percent) of released prisoners were responsible for nearly half (48 percent) of the arrests. About two in five (42 percent) released prisoners were either not arrested or were arrested no more than once in the five years after release.
The longer released prisoners went without being arrested, the less likely they were to be arrested at all during the follow-up period. For example, 43 percent of released prisoners were arrested within one year of release, compared to 13 percent of those not arrested by the end of year four who were arrested in the fifth year after release.
Among prisoners released in 2005 in 23 states with available data on inmates returned to prison, about half (50 percent) had either a parole or probation violation or an arrest for a new crime within three years that led to imprisonment, and more than half (55 percent) had a parole or probation violation or an arrest within five years that led to imprisonment.
Recidivism rates varied with the attributes of the inmate. Prisoners released after serving time for a property offense were the most likely to recidivate. Within five years of release, 82 percent of property offenders were arrested for a new crime, compared to 77 percent of drug offenders, 74 percent of public order offenders and 71 percent of violent offenders.
Released prisoners who were incarcerated for a violent, property or drug crime were more likely than other released inmates to be arrested for a similar type of crime. Regardless of the incarceration offense, the majority (58 percent) of released prisoners were arrested for a public order offense within five years of release. An estimated 39 percent of released prisoners were arrested within five years for a drug offense, 38 percent for a property offense and 29 percent for a violent offense.
Recidivism was highest among males, blacks and young adults. By the end of the fifth year after release, more than three-quarters (78 percent) of males and two-thirds (68 percent) of females were arrested, a 10 percentage point difference that remained relatively stable during the entire 5-year follow-up period.
Five years after release from prison, black offenders had the highest recidivism rate (81 percent), compared to Hispanic (75 percent) and white (73 percent) offenders.
Recidivism rates declined with age. Within five years of release, 84 percent of inmates who were age 24 or younger at release were arrested for a new offense, compared to 79 percent of inmates ages 25 to 39 and 69 percent of those age 40 or older.
The arrest of former prisoners after release increased with the extent of their criminal history. Within five years of release, 61 percent of released inmates with four or fewer arrests in their prior criminal history were arrested, compared to 86 percent of those who had 10 or more prior arrests.
Many inmates had multi-state criminal history records. About a tenth (11 percent) of prisoners had an arrest within five years of release in a state other than the one that released them, and nearly a quarter (25 percent) of the released prisoners had a prior out-of-state arrest.
Return to Prison
Classified a person as a recidivist when an arrest resulted in a conviction with a disposition of a prison sentence or when the offender was returned to prison without a new conviction because of a technical violation of his or her release, such as failing a drug test or missing an appointment with a parole officer.
Within 3 years of release, 49.7% of inmates either had an arrest that resulted in a conviction with a disposition of a prison sentence or were returned to prison without a new conviction because they violated a technical condition of their release, as did 55.1% of inmates within 5 years of release.
These findings from the recidivism study on prisoners released in 2005 in 30 states and tracked to 2010 cannot be directly compared to the previous BJS study on prisoners released in 1994 in 15 states due to changes in the demographic characteristics and criminal histories of the U.S. prison population, an increase in the number of states in the study and improvements made to the quality and completeness of the nation’s criminal history records since the mid-1990s.
Source: Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 States in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 (NCJ 244205), can be found on the BJS website at the Bureau Of Justice Statistics.
June 2002 study from the Bureau of Justice Statistics Following Prison Releases for Three Years:
Principal Findings:
The study (see summary below) found that:
Two-thirds (sixty-seven percent) of offenders were arrested for “serious” crimes.
Fifty-two percent of the offenders were returned to prison for “serious” crimes and technical violations (they didn’t follow the rules of their release after prison).
Summary of 2002 Study:
Sixty-seven percent of former inmates released from state prisons in 1994 committed at least one serious new crime within the following three years.
This was a rearrest rate 5 percent higher than that among prisoners released during 1983.
State prisoners with the highest rearrest rates were those who had been incarcerated for stealing motor vehicles (79 percent), possessing or selling stolen property (77 percent), larceny (75 percent), burglary (74 percent), robbery (70 percent) or those using, possessing or trafficking in illegal weapons (70 percent).
Those with the lowest rearrest rates were former inmates who had been in prison for homicide (41 percent), sexual assault (41 percent), rape (46 percent) or driving under the influence of drugs or alcohol (51 percent).
About 1 percent of the released prisoners who had served time for murder were arrested for another homicide within three years, and about 2 percent of the rapists were arrested for another rape within that period.
Within three years, 52 percent of the 272,111 released prisoners were back in prison either because of a new crime or because they had violated their parole conditions (e.g., failed a drug test, missed a parole office appointment).
Men were more likely to be rearrested than were women (68 percent, compared to 58 percent), blacks more likely than whites (73 percent vs. 63 percent) and non-Hispanics more than Hispanics (71 percent vs. 65 percent).
Younger prisoners and those with longer records were also more likely to be rearrested.
Post-prison recidivism was strongly related to arrest history.
Among prisoners with one arrest prior to their release, 41 percent were rearrested. Of those with two prior arrests, 47 percent were rearrested. Of those with three earlier arrests, 55 percent were rearrested. Among those with more than 15 prior arrests, that is about 18 percent of all released prisoners, 82 percent were rearrested within the three-year period.
The 272,111 inmates had accumulated more than 4.1 million arrest charges prior to their current imprisonment and acquired an additional 744,000 arrest charges in the 3 years following their discharge in 1994 – an average of about 18 criminal arrest charges per offender during their criminal careers.
These charges included almost 21,000 homicides, 200,000 robberies, 50,000 rapes and sexual assaults and almost 300,000 assaults.
Almost 8 percent of all released prisoners were rearrested for a new crime in a state other than the one that released them. These alleged offenders were charged with committing 55,760 new crimes in states other than the imprisoning state within the three-year period. New York, Arizona and California had the most arrests of out-of-state offenders in this study.
The data were from the largest recidivism study ever conducted in the United States, which tracked prisoners discharged in 15 states representing two-thirds of all state prisoners released in 1994.
They were 91 percent male, 50 percent white, 48 percent black, 24 percent Hispanic (of any race) and 44 percent were younger than 30 years old.
Most of them had been in prison for felonies: 22 percent for a violent offense (such as murder, rape, sexual assault or robbery), 33 percent for a serious property offense (mostly burglary, motor vehicle theft or fraud), 33 percent for a drug offense (primarily drug trafficking or possession) and 10 percent for public order offenses (mainly drunk driving or weapons crimes).
Most former convicts were rearrested shortly after getting out of prison: 30 percent within six months, 44 percent within a year, 59 percent within two years and 67 percent by the end of three years.
The study findings are based upon the prison and criminal records of an estimated 272,111 discharged prisoners in 15 states who were tracked through fingerprints records made at various points of contact with the justice system, both within the state in which they had served time and other states to which they traveled.
Source
The BJS special report, “Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 1994” is available at the Bureau Of Justice Statistics.
First Study from the Bureau of Justice Statistics-April, 1989:
A previous study titled “Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 1983” was released in April of 1989. It was an analysis of the criminal records of more than 16,000 men and women, representing the almost 109,000 offenders who were released from prisons in 11 States during 1983.
The study links correctional data with federal and state criminal history records to provide a complete portrait of criminal careers for more than a half of the State prisoners released.
About 47% of the former prisoners were convicted of a new crime and 41 percent were sent back to prison or jail.
Source: Bureau Of Justice Statistics
April 2011 Study From Pew
Another study on recidivism (defined for this report as a return to prison) was offered by the Pew Center on the States, Pew Safety Performance Project and released in April, 2011.
The study analyzed returns to prison for 33 states for those released in 1999 and 41 states for those released in 2004 making the study the most comprehensive analysis of returns to prison ever done.
The report compared earlier studies on recidivism conducted by the US Department of Justice for 15 states for releases in 1983 and 1994 and concluded that recidivism rates “have consistently remained around 40 percent.” California was excluded from this finding due to that state’s large percentage of the nation’s prison population and the fact that California’s rate of return to prison is traditionally high.
The report singles out three states, Oregon, Michigan and Missouri for lowering rates of return to prison.
Source: Pew
Probation Study From The Bureau Of Justice Statistics
Although not a release from prison, readers ask if there is data as it applies to the recidivism of those on probation.
To my knowledge, there is one major and definitive study (based on large numbers of offenders) on state probation recidivism. It focused solely on felony probationers.
Within 3 years 43% of state felons on probation were rearrested for a felony. Half of the arrests were for a violent crime (murder, rape, robbery, or aggravated assault) or a drug offense.
Results showed that within 3 years of sentencing, 62 percent either had a disciplinary hearing for violating a condition of their probation or were arrested for another felony.
In addition, within 3 years, 46 percent had been sent to prison or jail or had absconded.
Fifty-three percent had special conditions attached to their probation, most often drug testing, drug treatment, or alcohol treatment.
The financial penalties imposed on the probationers included victim restitution (29 percent), court costs (48 percent), and probation supervision fees (32 percent), Bureau Of Justice Statistics.
Most On Probation Are Felons
Who is on probation? Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, felony cases went from 50 percent of the probation population in 2005 to 57 percent in 2015, which means that probation is handling a more challenging workload.
Main Characteristics of Recidivism:
The studies found two primary variables in recidivism which seem to be present in virtually all past and current studies:
Age upon release. Younger prisoners released were more likely to be rearrested.
Post-prison recidivism was strongly related to arrest and criminal history.
In fiscal year 2005, nearly 43,000 offenders were placed on federal community supervision.
About a quarter (23%) had been sentenced to probation, and the remainder (77%) were on supervision following release from prison.
New arrests Within 1 year of their placement on community supervision in 2005, about 1 in 5 of the federal offenders (18%) had been arrested at least once.
Within 3 years, nearly twice as many offenders (35%) had been arrested at least once. And, within 5 years, approximately 2 in 5 of the offenders (43%) were arrested at least once, although the type of arrests while on supervision varied by federal and nonfederal (i.e., state and local) charges.
Regardless of demographic characteristics or the number of prior criminal offenses, federal prisoners placed on community supervision consistently had lower rates of recidivism than state prisoners.
Among federal prisoners conditionally released from federal prison in 2005, almost half (47%) were arrested within 5 years, compared to more than three-quarters (77%) of state prisoners released on community supervision in 2005.
Federal prisoners (32%) also returned to prison less often than state prisoners (59%) during that time period.
Within 5 years of placement on community supervision, less than a third (30%) of federal prisoners had two or more arrests, compared to more than half (57%) of state prisoners.
More than a third of federal prisoners (37%) had a nonfederal arrest and nearly a third (29%) had a federal arrest within 5 years following their release.
Seventy-five percent of state prisoners had a nonfederal arrest and 4% had a federal arrest during that time period. Overall, 67% of all new arrests among released federal prisoners were for nonfederal charges, compared to 98% among state prisoners.
Source: Bureau Of Justice Statistics
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