Highlights
Total incarcerations of people on parole and probation have decreased (see conclusions). Are we taking greater chances with decreases in the incarceration of violent felons? Does the lack of incarcerations contribute to rising violence, especially in urban areas?
“What we got to do, if we really want to see homicides go down, is keep bad guys with guns in jail,” Washington D.C. chief of police.
From yearend 2011 to yearend 2021, the total adult community supervision population fell 22%. Most of this decrease was due to a decline of 25% (1 million) in the number of adults on probation.
The rate of adults on probation at yearend 2021 (1,143 per 100,000 adult U.S. residents) was at its lowest point in 36 years.
Among adults on probation, the percentage supervised for a violent offense rose from 18% in 2011 to 26% in 2021. Most of this increase was among adults with a violent offense other than domestic violence or a sex offense.
The parole population in 2021 was at its lowest point since 2006 when 798,200 persons were supervised on parole.
Among adults on parole whose most serious offense was known, a larger percentage in 2021 (36%) than in 2011 (28%) had been incarcerated for a violent offense.
Author
Editor’s Notes
The report below is from The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS); quotes are direct. It analyzes those on parole or probation in the US.
Parole includes those on mandatory release, so authorities can no longer legally hold the inmate.
BJS surveys cover the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the U.S. federal system. Juveniles are not counted unless charged as adults.
As most readers know, there are vast differences in the parole or probation populations and their policy considerations or consequences. Combining both in one report makes for challenging reading.
There are significant percentages of “unknowns” for both categories which makes conclusions difficult.
The report (link below) includes successful conclusions for both categories. I do not use the term here; I’m aware of numerous people on parole and probation supervision who had endless violations yet who were counted as “successful.” The term “successful” seems subjective rather than empirical.
For example, the vast majority of people released from prison are rearrested and incarcerated but those rearrests and incarcerations may not occur during the period of community supervision. But criminologists have noted that most parole rearrests occur within the first three years of release which matches most terms of community supervision. However, the BJS report states that 50-65 percent of parolees were “successful.”
The percentage of completions is included in the BJS report.
Article
Rates and numbers of people on parole and probation are falling. The large majority are offenders on probation who are increasingly felons and violent.
Probation was originally conceived for minor offenders without extensive criminal histories or violent crimes. The original emphasis was assistance to people convicted of lesser crimes who would be guided by parole and probation agents to counseling and social services to deter future criminality.
That’s not the case today with increasing numbers on probation who are violent (26 percent) and felons (64 percent).
Among adults on parole whose most serious offense was known, a larger percentage in 2021 (36%) than in 2011 (28%) had been incarcerated for a violent offense, which is confusing because the current percentage of violent in state prisons is 68 percent and it’s much higher if you include criminal history.
The bottom line is that parole and probation agents are operating with smaller caseloads but with a much higher percentage of felons and those violent.
See data on incarcerations in conclusions.
Bureau Of Justice Statistics
At yearend 2021, an estimated 3,745,000 adults were under community supervision (probation or parole), down 136,600 from January 1, 2021.
An estimated 1 in 69 adult U.S. residents were under community supervision at the end of 2021, the lowest rate since 1987.
During 2021, the probation population decreased in 31 states and the U.S. federal system and increased in 18 states and the District of Columbia.
The rate of adults on probation at yearend 2021 (1,143 per 100,000 adult U.S. residents) was at its lowest point in 36 years.
At yearend 2021, 803,200 adults were on parole supervision, a decrease of 7.1% from January 1, 2021 and the largest annual change since 1992.
The parole population in 2021 was at its lowest point since 2006, when 798,200 persons were supervised on parole.
During 2021, the parole population fell in 44 states, the District of Columbia, and the U.S. federal system’s term of supervised release, while 6 states had an increase in the parole population.
Among adults on probation whose most serious offense was known, the percentage on supervision for a violent offense rose from 18% in 2011 to 26% in 2021.
Types Of Crimes-Probation
Among adults on probation whose most serious offense was known, the percentage supervised for a violent offense rose from 18% in 2011 to 26% in 2021. Most of this increase was among adults with a violent offense other than domestic violence or a sex offense.
Smaller shares were on probation for DUI/DWI (11%) or a property offense (24%) in 2021 than in 2011 (15% DUI/ DWI and 27% property), while similar percentages were on probation for drug offenses (about 25% in each year).
The most serious offense was unknown for almost 4 in 10 of all adults on probation in 2011 and 2021.
From 2011 to 2021, the share of adults with a known offense type who were on probation for a felony increased from 53% to 64%. Of all adults on probation in 2021, almost a third had been sentenced for a misdemeanor and 13% had an unknown or unreported offense type.
Types Of Crimes-Parole
Among adults on parole whose most serious offense was known, a larger percentage in 2021 (36%) than in 2011 (28%) had been incarcerated for a violent offense.
Smaller shares were on parole for a drug (30%) or property (19%) offense in 2021 than in 2011 (33% drug and 23% property), while the share on parole for a weapons offense increased from 3% in 2011 to 6% in 2021.
The most serious offense was unknown for 22% of all adults on parole at yearend.
Source
Conclusions
Parole and probation agents are facing tougher but smaller caseloads.
The great bulk of those on community supervision are probationers.
Numbers and rates on community supervision are plummeting and part of the reason is plunging arrests, criminal justice reform (i.e., deferring potential probationers to a non-supervision status), and COVID.
Understand that every correctional administrator in the country has been told to lessen the financial burden of corrections on state budgets. Agents consistently tell me that violators on community supervision are given endless chances before being revoked for a hearing before the courts or parole commission.
Advocates are insisting that we not violate (with a possible return to incarceration status) those on supervision unless actions are egregious.
Incarcerations (total for parole) fell from 30 percent in 2011 to 20 percent in 2021.
Incarcerations (total for probation) fell from 12 percent in 2011 to 10 percent in 2021. It was 15 percent in 2018.
With the decrease in incarcerations, we may be taking greater chances with more dangerous felons which could be contributing to rising violence, especially in urban areas.
“What we got to do, if we really want to see homicides go down, is keep bad guys with guns in jail. Because when they’re in jail, they can’t be in communities shooting people. So when people talk about what we gonna do different, or what we should do different, what we need to do different, that’s the thing that we need to do different,” Contee said, (D.C. chief of police).
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