Per DOJ-Increasing Percentage On Parole and Probation Are Violent Or Felons

Highlights

Parole and probation agents are supervising and police officers are encountering an offender population containing more felonies and histories of violence.

Most on probation are felons (62 percent) and 22 percent are violent.

Ninety-four percent on parole served one year or more in prison. Thirty-one percent are violent.

If you include criminal history, violent percentages and those with felonies would be much higher.

Author

Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.

Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of criminology and public affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University. Former police officer. Aspiring drummer.

Article

The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) of the US Department of Justice collected data through the Annual Probation Survey, the Annual Parole Survey, and the Federal Justice Statistics Program. These are the only national data collections that cover community corrections in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the U.S. federal system.

Parolees include persons released from prison through discretionary (via a parole board) or mandatory release (the government can no longer legally hold the inmate).

An estimated 1 in 58 adults in the U.S. were under community supervision at year-end 2018.

Adults on probation accounted for about 80% of those under community supervision, while parolees made up the remaining 20%.

Parole and Probation Populations Declining

In 2018, the community-supervision population was at its lowest level since 1998, when it was 4,122,400. It decreased 14% from 2008 to 2018.

The community supervision population has declined each year since 2007. The probation population has declined each year since 2007, when it peaked at 5,115,500.

In comparison, the parole population increased 6% from 2008 to 2018, and 2018 marked its fifth consecutive year of growth.

Why Has Probation Declined?

Declining community supervision populations shouldn’t surprise anyone. We’ve been at historic lows for crime since the early to mid-1990s before violent crime started to increase in 2015 per the National Crime Survey from the US Department of Justice, US Crime Rates.

Data from the National Crime Survey state that we were at record historical lows for criminal activity. From 1993 to 2015, the rate of violent crime declined from 79.8 to 18.6 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.

Using the FBI numbers, the violent crime rate fell 48% between 1993 and 2016. Using data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (National Crime Survey), the rate fell 74% during that span.

Why Has Parole Increased?

Advocates (over decades) state that more prisoners should be paroled to curtail state and federal correctional costs, Pew. There are concurrent claims that public safety is not impacted by the increasing use of parole which seems dubious when considering recidivism data (below).

Most On Probation Are Felons

Seventy-five percent of probationers are male and 55 percent are white.

Felonies increased from 50 percent in 2008 to 62 percent in 2018.

Nineteen percent were violent in 2008, which increased to 22 percent in 2018.

Note that these are current operating charges, not a cumulative count of those with a violent history. If you included criminal histories, the percentage of violent or felons would increase substantially.

94 Percent On Parole Served Sentences Of One Year Or More

Eighty-seven percent of parolees were male and 46 percent were white (the largest category).

Twenty-six percent were violent in 2008 which increased to 31 percent in 2018.

Note that these are current operating charges, not a cumulative count of those with a violent history. If you included criminal histories, the percentage of violent offenders would increase substantially.

Ninty-four percent served a sentence of one year or more in 2018 (presumed felonies). There was no change since 2008.

Recidivism Data-Released From Prison

The most common understanding of recidivism is based on state data from the US Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, stating that two-thirds (68 percent) of prisoners released were arrested for a new crime within three years of release from prison, and three-quarters (77 percent) were arrested within five years.

Within 3 years of release, 49.7% of inmates either had an arrest that resulted in a conviction with a disposition of a prison sentence or were returned to prison without a new conviction because they violated a technical condition of their release, as did 55.1% of inmates within 5 years of release, Inmate Recidivism

Recidivism Data-Probationers

There is one major and definitive Bureau of Justice Statistics study (based on large numbers of offenders) on state probation recidivism.  It focused solely on felony probationers.

Within 3 years 43% of state felons on probation were rearrested for a felony. Half of the arrests were for a violent crime (murder, rape, robbery, or aggravated assault) or a drug offense.

Results showed that within 3 years of sentencing, 62 percent either had a disciplinary hearing for violating a condition of their probation or were arrested for another felony.

In addition, within 3 years, 46 percent had been sent to prison or jail or had absconded, Probation Recidivism.

Successfully Completing Supervision

Approximately 50 percent of those on state probation completed their community supervision in 2016.

Approximately 56 percent of those on state parole completed their community supervision in 2016, Completed Sentences.

If one compares recidivism percentages on parole and probation with data on those “successfully” completing community supervision, it’s obvious that a considerable number of arrests and infractions are being excused or dismissed.

Source

Bureau Of Justice Statistics

Conclusions

Parole and probation agents are supervising and police officers are encountering an offender population containing more felonies and histories of violence.

Based on rearrests and infractions, the recidivism rate for those released from prison and on probation is very high.

Some will suggest that the difference between successful completions while on supervision and new arrests is based on efforts to reduce correctional populations to ease the financial burdens of states.

Some jurisdictions are simply violating fewer offenders that would have been violated in the past. Whether or not this is good for society remains to be seen.

The Appendix provides state by state data as to completions and failures to complete community supervision.

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