Poll Numbers Show Crime As A “Very Important” Priority For Midterm Voters

Highlights

Violent crime and gun policies are two of the top three issues very important to midterm voters.

The collective data (crime victimization-computer crime-fraud) indicate a growing crime problem for at least half of American households yearly per Gallup.

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Pew offers a comprehensive overview of the priorities and characteristics of midterm voters. November 28, 2022, is just around the corner. 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats will be contested.

Yes, the economy is the number one issue (77 percent). Still, the next two categories, “Gun Policy” (62 percent) and “Violent Crime,” (60 percent) come very close, which leads me to conclude that crime remains “a” or “the” deciding factor in the upcoming elections.

The chart below records those indicating issues that are “very important” to their vote. If Pew added “important” priorities (as polling organizations have done in the past), the collective percentages would be much higher.

Yes, there are an array of voter concerns that rank highly, and obviously, crime will not be the sole deciding factor, but it indicates that the national conversation around growing violence and record-setting fear will play a significant role. Immigration (48 percent) could serve as a proxy for citizen concern over lawlessness although a connection to violence remains a question per data.

Yes, all poll numbers are influenced by political affiliation, race, age, and other factors, and the “Gun Policy” issue (whatever that means) has more support from Democrats (71 percent). But it also has strong backing from Republicans (52 percent) which suggests that policy implications are based on who you ask. Gun policy could range from open carry to comprehensive background checks to bans on some weapons. The Supreme and lower courts do not seem supportive of prohibitions beyond felons and the certifiably mentally ill.

Background-Context-Growing Violence And Fear Of Crime

Per 2020 (latest available national numbers) FBI statistics released in September 2021, the number of homicides increased nearly 30% from 2019, the largest single-year increase the agency has recorded since it began tracking these crimes in the 1960s. There were more than 21,500 murders last year, a total not seen since the mid-1990s.

In 2020, violent crime was up 5.6 percent from the 2019 number. The estimated number of aggravated assault offenses rose 12.1 percent.

Fear of crime is at its highest level in years. Firearm and security sales are skyrocketing. Per media accounts, people and businesses are leaving cities. Indications for 2022 suggest that violence continues to grow. Violent crime increases seem to be concentrated in American cities but there is USDOJ data suggesting that it is expanding to smaller cities and rural areas.

Private reports suggest that aggravated assault numbers in the cities under review rose by 4 percent, and robberies spiked by 19 percent in 2022 with a very slight reduction in homicides. See a list of Most Dangerous Cities for cities experiencing increases and decreases in homicides.

Per Gallup (October 2021), There is a big increase in the criminal victimization of urban households in 2021, 30 percent compared to 22 percent in 2020. Seven percent of urban residents were violently victimized compared to 3% of U.S. adults. The majority of Americans live in urban areas. The collective data (urban crime victimization-computer crime-fraud) indicates a growing crime problem for at least half of American households yearly, Gallup.

Note that data varies from year to year and there is research from the Bureau of Justice Statistics for 2020 recording reductions in crime.

All data cited above are available at Violent And Property Crime Rates in The US.

Conclusions

I see media interviews with people victimized by fraud who are traumatized. Can you imagine the collective response to having your car stolen (vehicle theft is increasing per the FBI) or being the victim of a violent crime? If approximately half of American households are victimized yearly per Gallup, it provides the foundation for crime being a top priority.

Those in law enforcement are warning us of rapidly increasing violence and lawlessness. Every day brings more examples in the media. Between the national data on fear and crime, crime statistics, and Pew, we are a nation mostly living in fear.

Firearm sales are skyrocketing. It’s the same for security systems and other devices. People and businesses are leaving cities. Labor markets and local economies are declining. Violence affects everyone and everything from child psychology to school achievement.

Now, through Pew, we have additional data indicating how difficult and impactful the problem has become via the upcoming midterm election.