The Probability of Being A Victim of Violent Crime

Highlights

Who has the highest risk for violent crime? What are the circumstances?

Author

Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.

Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of criminology and public affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University. Aspiring drummer.

Introduction

Some of the most popular articles I write deal with the probability of a person being victimized by violent crime. The answers are more complex than you think.

We know that young people living in cities have a greater probability of being victimized than anyone else. But being a victim of a violent crime depends more on what you do than who you are.

For example, drug and alcohol use greatly heighten your risk of victimization. Most offenders are under the influence of drugs or alcohol when they commit their crimes.

Most rapes happen in a residential setting committed by someone known to you. Who you allow in your house or who’s house you to go into is important. Just because you know the person doesn’t mean you are safe from victimization.

The vast majority of victimizations happen when you are alone. Regardless of the circumstances, being with another person greatly reduces your chances of harm.

Perceived vulnerability is critical. Criminals prey on the easiest targets including the disabled or repeat victims or the elderly for fraud or burglary. Being under the influence while displaying your expensive smartphone is risky. Always act as if you are in complete control of yourself and circumstances.

Two sources of data are presented below, one from the FBI and one from the National Crime Victimization Survey to give readers a sense as to who is victimized and the circumstances involved.

Future articles will focus on where and when violent crime happens.

Why Violent Crime Happens-National Incident-Based Reporting System

Per the data below from the FBI (see below for details), there are categories of violent crime that are instructive. The chart focuses on homicides and aggravated assaults.

First, understand that the majority of violent crime happens between people who know each other. Strangers committed about 1.8 million nonfatal violent crimes, or about 38 percent of all nonfatal violent victimizations, Bureau Of Justice Statistics. The percentage will change from year to year but what doesn’t change is the fact that most violent crime involves people you know.

Arguments are the driving force in most violent crimes. For anyone born in large cities, one of the first instructions from parents is avoiding unnecessary confrontations and how to extract yourself from potentially dangerous situations.

The second most frequent category is a lover’s quarrel, which is why I started the conversation with data on nonstranger violence. Some of the most violent crime scenes I witnessed as a police officer were domestic violence incidents.

The third category can be generalized into crime-related activities such as drug dealing, gangs or other felonies. Criminal offenders routinely assault each other.

The other and unknown circumstances are large to the point where they impact conclusions. But the lessons from this and other data remain, avoid unnecessary arguments at all costs and violent interactions between romantically involved people are a serious problem.

Knowing how to de-escalate confrontations and when to back away are important lessons. Crime prevention experts have always struggled with the question as to when to fight back. The data suggest that responding to aggression with aggression has an impact as to non-completed crimes, yet injuries increase. Fight back to escape whenever possible.

Victimization Demographics For All Violent Crimes

As to all violent crimes, it’s necessary to use data from the National Crime Survey from the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice, National Crime Victimization Survey. Only 43 percent of violent crime is reported to law enforcement, thus the need for a survey to get a better picture of all crime.

As stated victimization depends far more on the activities you choose to engage in than race, sex or income.

For example, those age 65 or older with upper incomes have, by far, the lowest rates of violent crime. However, if that 65-year-old chooses to go into a high crime neighborhood and purchase drugs, then his risk for violence dramatically increase.

If a 14-year-old (those 12-17 have high rates for violent crime) chooses to spend her evenings studying and spending time with her family, her chances for violent crime victimization drop dramatically.

Females knew their offenders in almost 70% of violent crimes committed against them (they are relatives, friends or acquaintances).

What’s surprising is that females are victimized more by violent crime than males. The same applies to whites. In the not too distant past, women and whites had lower rates of violent victimization.

What’s traditional in victimization is that younger people, those divorced or separated and those with lesser incomes have higher rates of victimization.

People Perceived As Vulnerable

The disabled have much higher rates of violent crime.

People perceived as “vulnerable” are victimized more. This applies to mixed-race couples (well documented by the literature), the LGBT community, the elderly as it pertains to fraud or burglary, immigrants, victims of abuse (i.e., human trafficking), repeat victims of violent crime, and others, Crime and The Disabled.

Crime Prevention

For crime prevention techniques, see Prevention.

The FBI’s National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS)-Background

Implemented to improve the overall quality of crime data collected by law enforcement, NIBRS captures details on each single crime incident, as well as on separate offenses within the same incident, including information on victims, known offenders, relationships between victims and offenders, arrestees, and property involved in crimes. Unlike data reported through the UCR Program’s traditional Summary Reporting System, an aggregate monthly tally of crimes, NIBRS goes much deeper because of its ability to provide circumstances and context for crimes like location, time of day, and whether the incident was cleared.

As recommended by professional law enforcement organizations, the FBI has made the nationwide implementation of NIBRS a top priority because NIBRS can provide more useful statistics to promote constructive discussion, measured planning, and informed policing.

The vision for NIBRS is for it to become the law enforcement community’s standard for quantifying crime, which will help law enforcement and communities around the country use resources more strategically and effectively. In 2018, approximately 44 percent of U.S. law enforcement agencies that participated in the UCR Program submitted data via NIBRS.

When used to its full potential, NIBRS identifies, with precision, when and where crime takes place, what form it takes, and the characteristics of its victims and perpetrators. Armed with such information, law enforcement can better define the resources it needs to fight crime, as well as use those resources in the most efficient and effective manner.

NIBRS, 2018, is available at FBI.

More information about the NIBRS transition is available on the NIBRS webpage at FBI.

See More

See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.

Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.

US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.

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