Highlights
With violent crime tripling per Gallup and a 28 percent increase in violent crime since 2015 per the US Department of Justice, one can ask what’s causing the dramatic increase in violent crime since 2015?
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of criminology and public affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University. Aspiring drummer.
Introduction
There are three principal measures of violent crime in the United States, crimes reported to law enforcement as collected by the FBI, a national survey of total crime through the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the USDOJ, and Gallup which provides crime and fear of crime statistics through a national survey.
The National Crime Victimization Survey through the Bureau of Justice Statics, US Department of Justice, states that violent crime increased by 28 percent from 2015-2018 (latest year). Serious violent crimes have also increased.
Gallup indicates that violent crime increased dramatically.
The FBI suggests that violent crime fell slightly.
The vast majority of crime is not reported to the police. Only 43 percent of violent crime is reported which is why national surveys are necessary to measure total violent crime.
Before 2015, there were fairly consistent and large drops in violent and property crime. Property crime continues to decrease.
But with violent crime tripling per Gallup and a 28 percent increase in violent crime since 2015 per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, one can ask what’s happening that is causing a dramatic increase in violent crime.
Per Gallup-Violent Crime Triples
Per Gallup, “each year since 2017, 15% of U.S. adults have indicated they were victimized by crime in the past year. A subset of that, between 1% and 3%, have reported being the victim of a violent crime.”
One percent of Americans were victimized by violent crime in 2016. That tripled to three percent in 2019. 2019 is the first year where violent crime reached three percent.
Gallup’s measure of violent crime includes physical assault, sexual assault, and robbery by force, Gallup.
In addition, “Americans are more likely to say a household member has had their personal, credit card or financial information stolen by computer hackers, than report being victimized by any of eight other forms of criminal activity. Nearly a quarter of Americans, 23% say that they or someone in their household fell victim to this type of cybercrime in 2018, little changed from 25% who reported being so targeted last year,” Gallup.
Per The USDOJ, Violent Crime Increased 28 Percent
Violent crime is increasing in some (not all) cities throughout the US. The media accounts of struggling metropolitan areas are endless, see Most Dangerous Cities.
The number of persons who had been victims of violent crime is up 17 percent from 2015-2017 per the National Crime Survey.
From 2015 to 2018, the total number of violent victimizations increased by 28% per the National Crime Survey.
The latest report from the National Crime Survey states that the number of violent incidents increased from 5.2 million in 2017 to 6.0 million in 2018, National Crime Rates.
Per the National Crime Survey, the seriousness of violent crimes also increased, Serious Violence.
FBI Data Show Small Reductions For Violence
But per the FBI, violent crime was flat for 2017 and was down 3.3 percent for 2018 and decreased 3.1 percent for the first six months of 2019. Violent crime per the FBI increased in 2015 and 2016, National Crime Rates.
Have Past Record Lows for Violent Crime Ended?
Possibly (per the National Crime Survey for 2018 and the latest Gallup report), but the bottom line is that violent and property crimes are still at record lows for the country and, generally speaking, have been decreasing for the last two decades except for recent years (since 2015) with mixed results from the two main Department of Justice sources.
The principal reason for any confusion is the increase in “all” violent crime as measured by the National Crime Survey (an increase in violent crime of 28 percent from 2015-2018), and measures of “reported” crime compiled from local law enforcement agencies via the FBI.
Per the FBI, violent crime increased in 2015 and 2016 but decreased slightly in 2017 (violence was essentially flat) and 2018 (a decrease of 3.3 percent). It decreased by 3.1 percent for the first half of 2019.
There have been additional increases since 2000; the rate of violent crime in the US increased in 2005 and 2006 (via FBI data) but the index returned to decreases in 2007.
Thus we have a fundamental question, which holds more importance, a 28 percent increase in all violent crime per the National Crime Survey (2015-2018), a tripling of violent crime per Gallup, or a 3.3 percent decrease in 2018 and a 3.1 percent decrease for the first half of 2019 for reported crime from the FBI?
Conclusion
In the introduction, I asked, “what’s happening since 2015 that caused a dramatic increase in violent crime?”
There are two major events that come to mind. One is the endless barrage of negative media coverage regarding police use of force. Yes, some of it is justified.
The results are clear, police recruitment and retention are down dramatically, and officers are no longer being proactive or have dramatically reduced their self-initiated contacts with the public, Cops Decline.
One can criticize the overuse of stop and frisk, but data states that proactive law enforcement decreases crime. Eliminate proactivity and an increase in violence seems inevitable.
The other is criminal justice reform. While there is no specific definition of justice reform, it generally involves careful and constructive police contact with the public, and probably less enforcement.
Another aspect of reform is careful consideration as to incarceration (national organizations are calling for a 50 percent reduction in prison populations), bail reform and other measures designed to create less and shorter contacts with the justice system.
While I support some aspects of reform (i.e., the decriminalization or legalization of marijuana for personal use or limiting the time on parole and probation for nonviolent offenders) on the basis that the justice system cannot be all things to all people, fewer police self-initiated contacts with the public and less incarceration for violent offenders or those with a history of violence may be contributing factors to rising violent crime as measured by national surveys.
The overwhelming number of released prison inmates are rearrested and reincarcerated, Recidivism. Based on a number of government studies, it’s inevitable that more releases equal more crime, especially when considering that most are repeat felons.
It’s also important to note that fear of crime is high. Seventy-five percent of Americans worry about crime, Fear Of Crime.
Baltimore As An Example
All of this is currently playing out in Baltimore and many other cities. Baltimore is first in the country for robbery, second for homicides and third for overall violent crime, see Most Dangerous Cities. Harshly criticized cops are not being proactive. Most of the local political discussion revolves around reform.
The Vera Institute of Justice found that Maryland led the nation with a 9.6 percent drop in prison inmates in 2017. That was more than 2 percentage points greater than the decline registered in the second-ranking states, Connecticut and Rhode Island. The reduction was continuing a trend for the state, Baltimore Sun.
Maryland’s governor recently declared that violence in Baltimore is the state’s number one priority. Community leaders are begging for more police proactivity while stating that criminals no longer fear consequences. Some believe that what’s happening in Baltimore is occurring in a variety of cities throughout the country.
See More
See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.
Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.
US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.
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Contact
Contact us at leonardsipes@gmail.com.
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