Highlights
Is misinformation about law enforcement affecting the vast increases in violent crime? Are we losing cops?
There is endless negative publicity (some of it deserved) regarding police use of force, yet research shows that force “or” threat of force is used in less than three percent of all police-citizen encounters.
Estimates of police yearly killings of unarmed Black men range from 100 to 1,000 to 10,000 to more than 10,000 a year when the actual number is between 13 to 27.
Why are we so wrong about police statistics?
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of directing award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of criminology and public affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University. Former police officer. Aspiring drummer.
Editorial
The news coverage of police shootings or use of force is both monumental and neverending. The debate has caused many police officers to leave the job at the insistence of their families.
Police recruitment is down 63 percent. Cities are complaining that they do not have enough police officers to respond to calls with some (i.e., Minneapolis) asking officers from neighboring jurisdictions to patrol their streets.
Concurrently, violent crime and serious violent crime is increasing substantially. Some suggest that it’s partially due to officers no longer willing to be proactive.
No one disputes that “some” cops are involved in unjustified shootings or use of force. But to extrapolate these events to all one million police employees uses the same stereotypes to justify racism or sexism.
Yes, one unjustified police homicide is too much, but per statistics below, an absence of cops or a lack of proactivity will create an increase in violent crime.
Violent Crime Increased Dramatically
We have a 28 percent increase in all violent crime (including simple assaults) per the National Crime Survey (2015-2018), and the presumption that this applies to 2019 (no change in violent crime in 2019 when including simple assaults per BJS), a tripling of violent crime per Gallup, endless media reports of vastly increasing urban violence in 2020 and 2021 after the lockdowns, a rise in homicides and aggravated assaults in 2019 and 2020 per the Major Cities Chiefs Association, a considerable and recent rise in homicides, aggravated assaults and robberies after the lockdowns by the University of Missouri, and considerable increases in homicides and violence by COVID and Crime, US Crime Rates.
Per FBI preliminary statistics for all of 2020, there was a 25 percent increase in homicides, overall violent crime increased by 3.3 percent, and aggravated assaults increased by 10.5 percent, Violent Crime Increases in 2020.
Major American cities saw a 33% increase in homicides last year as a pandemic swept across the country, millions of people joined protests against racial injustice and police brutality, and the economy collapsed under the weight of the pandemic — a crime surge that has continued into the first quarter of this year, Rising Urban Homicides-CNN.
Protests-riots creating two billion dollars in insurance claims, Protest Insurance Claims.
Cops Leaving Means More Crime?
Does the public understand that fewer cops and reduced police budgets lead to more crime?
There are endless newspaper articles citing instances of cops leaving the job. Some cities don’t have enough officers to patrol their streets (i.e., Minneapolis). Per the Police Executive Research Forum, recruitment is down by 63 percent. Because of the negative news and violence directed towards police officers and COVID deaths, family members are telling loved ones to get out of policing, and to get out now, Cops Leaving.
More than 5,300 NYPD officers have retired or submitted paperwork to leave the force in 2020, a 75 percent increase from the previous year, according to department data, reports The Grio per The New York Post. Approximately 2,600 officers departed while another 2,746 filed for retirement. In 2019, a total of 3,053 left the force. From the beginning of this year through April 21, 831 officers have already retired or filed for permanent leave, and many more are expected to follow suit.
Police officials and union leaders in New Jersey and Pennsylvania say they are having a tough time recruiting officers, Philadelphia Inquirer.
There are numerous media reports offering similar statistics. There is data suggesting that reduced police budgets lead to more crime, Reduced Police Budgets.
Disparities
There are endless media reports regarding racial disparities and law enforcement.
Yes, disparities exist in policing AND journalism AND the medical field AND science AND business AND academia, AND entertainment but somehow, others are given a pass. Why?
I directed media relations in African American administered justice agencies principally staffed by Black management and employees for over 25 years. Racial disparities were the same as in any other justice agency.
Police Mistakes Are Widely Covered
Yes, mistakes happen. As an officer, I almost shot someone when he reached for a gun that turned out to be a non-lethal starter pistol. A woman on a porch during a domestic violence incident where shots were fired would not put her gun down (her drunken husband shot at her-she took his gun-but I didn’t know the full story at the time). There are other examples where I could have shot someone.
Before leaving policing for college, I came to the conclusion that law enforcement was simply impossible. Sooner or later, you are going to make a mistake. My race or the background of the people involved didn’t matter. The circumstances didn’t matter. What did matter is the fact that you pulled the trigger (or came damned close to it) and you would have to live with that decision for the rest of your life.
Out of 40-60 Million Police Contacts-Two to Three Percent Involve Force “Or” Threat Of Force
An estimated 40 million U.S. residents age 16 or older, or about 17 percent of the population, had a face-to-face contact with a police officer in one year. Among people who had face-to-face contacts, about nine out of 10 residents felt the police were respectful or acted properly, Bureau of Justice Statistics.
Having said this, it’s inevitable that out of 40-60 million yearly encounters, some will go bad. It’s a statistical reality.
Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics study, police used or threatened to use force in less than two percent of contacts.
Police Citizen Contacts
Some media commentators suggest that police use of force is growing/common/frequent during stops. Less than 3% of U.S. residents experienced a threat “or” use of force during their most recent police-initiated contact.
Contrary to media reports, the use of force decreased for police-initiated contacts from 3.3 to 2.8 percent.
Contrary to critics, police-initiated arrests decreased considerably, 815,000 in 2015-386,000 in 2018, Law Enforcement Public Opinion.
Law Enforcement-One Of The Most Respected Institutions
Study after study, poll after poll state that the vast majority of Americans give police very high marks. While there are differences based on race or income or age or political affiliation, the vast majority of Americans rate cops highly and want law enforcement in their communities, Police Public Opinion.
Most Americans Say That Police Are Not Trained To Use Excessive Force
From The Crime Report: The recent killings by police officers of 13-year-old Adam Toledo and 16-year-old Ma’Khia Bryant, as well as three other children in the three weeks between their highly-publicized deaths, has sparked new conversation around the long-standing question of how fatal police shootings of children could be avoided and lives spared, reports the Washington Post.
A Washington Post-ABC News poll in April showed 55 percent of Americans said they were not confident that police are adequately trained to avoid excessive use of force—up from 52 percent last July and 44 percent in 2014.
But if research shows that less than three percent of all police-citizen encounters involved force “or” the threat of force, is the data above justifiable?
Estimates As To Police Killings Of Unarmed Black Men By Law Enforcement-The Skeptic (rearranged quotes)
In a chart offered by The Skeptic, people (based on political affiliation) estimated the number of unarmed Black men killed by law enforcement in 2019.
Estimates ranged from 100 to 1,000 to 10,000 to more than 10,000 with those claiming a liberal affiliation leading the way as to higher estimates. However, all groups including moderates to conservatives grossly exaggerated the numbers.
According to the Washington Post database, regarded as the “most complete database,” 13 unarmed black men were fatally shot by police in 2019. According to a second database called “Mapping Police Violence”, compiled by data scientists and activists, 27 unarmed black men were killed by police (by any means) in 2019.
“Unarmed” doesn’t mean that the person didn’t impose a threat to himself or others. It doesn’t mean that a police officer could justifiably believe that he was armed (i.e., taking a shooter’s stance with a shiny object or was a suicide-death by cop).
According to Department of Justice research, most violent crime does not involve a firearm yet victims are injured or killed.
The Atlantic-Police Killings Of Minors (edited-rearranged quotes)
Many Americans are misinformed about the dimensions of this problem––and are prone to accept disturbing but false narratives, such as that police officers in America hunt and kill Black children, or radical remedies, such as defunding or abolishing the police in the name of protecting children.
The wrong solutions might well result in the deaths of more children from causes other than police killings.
One of the best resources available is The Washington Post’s database of all fatal police shootings since the beginning of 2015. In that period, police have shot 6,241 people to death.
Coverage decisions can give the impression that many were children. Per the Post, since 2015, police have fatally shot 112 minors—roughly 2 percent of all fatal police shootings.
Other data show that police shootings are not among the most frequent causes of death for children, even setting aside medical conditions such as cancer. In 2016, 16 minors were shot and killed by police. These were among the other causes of death for people under 18:
- Motor-vehicle crashes: 4,074
- Gun homicides: 1,865
- Suffocation suicides: 1,110
- Gun suicides: 1,102
- Drownings: 995
- Drug overdoses or poisonings: 982
- Fires or burns: 340
- Gun accidents: 126
I bring this up not to minimize the importance of addressing police shootings—or the unique nature of the trauma they inflict—but to underscore the need to address them without increasing the number of deaths from other causes, such as gun homicides or motor-vehicle crashes, that could be affected by changes to policing.
After the Ma’Khia Bryant killing, numerous influential
But suppose that removing the police from all Black and brown communities reduced police killings of minors by 100 percent, while the absence of police and the lack of crime investigation led to an increase in civilian murders of minors by just 5 percent—in my view a very conservative estimate.
That would result, in a year such as 2016, in 16 fewer kids killed by police and 93 more kids shot to death by civilians. On net, 77 more children would die. If police killings were eliminated while civilian murders rose just 1 percent, more kids would still lose their life.
Conclusions
It’s almost impossible to read media accounts of police critics without noting that their observations are, per data, usually wrong.
The great majority of the public, regardless of who they are, are supportive of law enforcement. Massive data indicates that less than three percent of tens of millions of police encounters involve force “or” the threat of force. Preceptions as to the use of force are wildly off the mark.
I was invited to do a radio show where I would debate police critics. I declined. When asked why, I said that I would spend most of my time refuting incorrect information.
As I have consistently said in my articles, I hate racist people. Cops are held to high standards. Police officers are here to equally serve EVERY American, regardless of who they are.
But most of what I read about policing is driven by advocacy agendas and it usually wildly incorrect. Yes, we in the justice system have to do better to ensure equal justice.
But there is data that appears in newspapers that is distorted creating an actual or potential shortage of police officers who are simply fed up with the misinformation. Family members want them out.
When I was a cop, I was astounded to understand how easy it was to make a mistake as to what a suspect was doing or about to do. When you have seconds to make decisions during extreme stress, incorrect actions happen; events that you have to live with for the rest of your life.
But when you have data from millions of encounters stating that force “or” threat of force is used in less than three percent of police encounters, it seems to indicate that most cops are being fairly judicious.
See More
See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.
Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.
US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.
National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.
The Crime in America.Net RSS feed (https://crimeinamerica.net/?feed=rss2) provides subscribers with a means to stay informed about the latest news, publications, and other announcements from the site.
My book based on thirty-five years of criminal justice public relations,” Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization” available at Amazon and additional booksellers.
This is an ad-free website.
Reviews are appreciated.
One Reply to “What The Public Knows About Cops Or Police Shootings Is Usually Wrong”
Comments are closed.